If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

@Oaktree55 I never mentioned testing. I don't think testing is disruptive. Roll on the fast and reliable tests (especially for NHS and educational settings). Maybe you are thinking of someone else?

I think the first big step will be the development and wider circulation of a test that can detect it more or less instantly.
Treatments are improving all the time, and I think a vaccine will be ready for general distribution in summer next year.
I also think the virus may mutate to become less harmful, like a lot of others do. Inasmuch as it can be said to 'want' anything, it doesn't want to kill us or make us too ill to go out and spread it.

I think normal could be back sooner than a lot of people think.

I'm amazed by all the guesses of 2022! I think it will be normal by spring 2021. I don't think people will put up with it for much longer than that and we'll just crack on with our lives.

@BlueBlancmange - absolutely! Also, I think that the number of venues and personnel able to administer a vaccine will be vastly increased so that the programme can be completed more quickly.

Sept 2021. It;ll take months for the vaccine to be given to enough people for there to be an effect.

@HoneyBee03 I really hope you are right!

The target is to vaccinate 30 million people in three months. That is HCPs and care workers, vulnerable adults and everyone over 50. If that is achieved life should return to relatively normal. Rapid testing and better treatments will also help. Personally I think next summer will be much more normal, though there might still be some restrictions.
I expect it will be possible to buy vaccines privately after the initial push, for anyone who is not prioritised.

The reality is that people just won't SD for that much longer, it's contrary to human nature. I'd anticipate a reasonable level of compliance through Winter but by next Spring I really think the majority of people will be done with it.

I don't think we can use experience of previous vaccination programmes to inform a COVID vaccination programme. The situation is completely unprecedented, there's every reason to be cautiously hopeful that we can move faster than we've moved before.

All novel diseases eventually either kill everyone of infect enough that there is some natural resistance in some of the people, some of the time. Every infectious disease was novel once. COVID isn't special, it's just new.

That doesn't mean we should let it "rip through" but that it seems likely to me that some people (hopefully a very small number) will die from Covid every year from now on in the same way a small number of people die from other infectious diseases every year.

Never. You can never step in the same river twice.

I'm with @Graciebobcat - let's hope we can do better in the future.

April 2020

I meant April 2021 ! 🙄optimistically!

I reckon next summer will be relatively normal, with tougher restrictions creeping in next winter again.
But I also agree with the poster who said it will never go back to the "old normal". So much has fundamentally shifted in the past 6 months, and there will be no going back to some of it.

@HoneyBee03

I'm amazed by all the guesses of 2022! I think it will be normal by spring 2021. I don't think people will put up with it for much longer than that and we'll just crack on with our lives.

Same. This winter is going to be shit but hopefully we'll be getting back to normal by easter next year. I also agree that people simply won't put up with much more of this for too much longer.

But the fact is, none of us really has a clue.

[quote MagicSummer]@BlueBlancmange - absolutely! Also, I think that the number of venues and personnel able to administer a vaccine will be vastly increased so that the programme can be completed more quickly.[/quote]
I agree and I think we should told up our government to higher standards. That's what I mean by watch what is happening in other countries - which vaccine they choose, who they give it to, etc.
And there are HCPs, pharmacists, etc ready, able and willing to administer this vaccine to the public. The government just has to get it to them.

A long time. At least 2 years

I think Christmas 2022 we might get to party again.

My friend postponed her 40th until next August and I’m not Hopeful for her having it then, sadly.

I'm bracing for another set of craziness this winter, but subsiding naturally through next Spring to normal in Summer 2021. "Normal" in the sense that there are less restrictions around work, school, social gatherings, but some things will have permanently changed e.g. continued acceleration of digital, less or no crowds & large scale events, public health/hygiene measures, transport/flying/work behavioural patterns cemented during the crisis,

I also reckon there will be a vaccine by next winter that may or may not be quickly and widely rolled out, and that there will still be a small number of serious cases, but by then we have all the tools to live with the virus and control pandemic level outbreaks.

but yeah, tough times ahead to repay the debt we've accrued and will continue to build. I suspect this would also trigger changes in underlying political views e.g. green cities, social inequality, universal basic income...as well as on the negative end of the spectrum, destructive radical views.

McKinsey reckon end 2021 but with a higher chance it's later rather than earlier than that.

The economic impact is likely to be ~6 years. Based on past pandemic analysis. Though they impacted younger working age more so maybe we can bounce back faster this time.

I haven’t read the other comment yet, but I will go back and do so in a second. I think it will start returning to normal Spring 2022.

I think 2021 will be similar to this year. Continuing rules and lockdowns coming and going. I dont think anything will change before 2022

Spring 22 . I wish sooner but don't really expect that.

I'm team 2022. I think this winter will be hellish, with constant rule changing and fluctuating local lockdowns.

What a load of doom mongering on here. We had a massive pandemic in 1918 and things went back to normal again within 2-3 years. They will this time as well. The main problem with a new virus is the time it takes to make its way through the population and die down in terms of its ability to make a lot of people ill in one go, however you get to that point.

Even if we have partial vaccination of vulnerable/older people, then the ability to get on with life so that younger people can be allowed to catch it (which so many people want now!) is a more viable option . This will be true eve if vulnerable people need to vaccinate every year to keep immunity

We will also know more about who is most vulnerable. We already have some studies showing the genetic markers in some people that seems to possibly make them more predisposed to serious illness (even without underlying conditions). In time we will be able to identify particularly vulnerable people early if they get ill. Also we will have even better treatments for those who do get ill.

All of these things together will mean that Covid has not gone away but that we can actually get on as normal and live with it. It is just too early to do that yet

I'd say we will be back to close to normal by next summer with a bit or luck or certainly by Christmas 2021

I think we’ll be more back to normal in spring 2021. I think/ hope some measures are here to stay; better hand hygiene, face masks if you’re ill like in China etc and hopefully a message of stay at home if you’re ill rather than drag yourself into work/ school unless you’re on your death bed in the hopes that someone will take pity on you and send you home.

The effects on the economy are another matter altogether.

If we’re locked down until 2022 that sad fact is that a lot of the people who we’re trying to protect now will have died anyway.

Spring 2022.

I think spring 2021 will be more normal as will summer but it may get worse winter 2021 and we may face more restrictions.

I think it will be a mix of herd immunity, better treatments and possibly vaccine for most vulnerable - I think the virus and illness will always be around like other coronaviruses we already have.

I think the economic effects will be felt for years if not an entire decade after - and educational and health areas showing effects for long time afterwards as well.

If we’re locked down until 2022 that sad fact is that a lot of the people who we’re trying to protect now will have died anyway Don't think those in their 70s who are hoping to reach their 80s or 90s will agree with this! Just because you are deemed elderly and vulnerable at 70-something, doesn't mean you only have a year or 2 left on this earth! Many of them will have another decade or more to live for and we do need to protect them.