If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

As long as the virus continues to mutate we will have to get used to life as it is now. I don’t think there’s much of a chance of returning to our previous ‘normal’ for a number of years, if ever.
Depressing? Yes I guess so but I am not convinced that a vaccine will be a miraculous cure-all.

Spring 2022, hopefully by then the vaccine will be out and people vaccinated.

What about the next pandemic!

2022/23.

I think unless CFR changes significantly everyone will have given up following restrictions by next summer. I imagine there will be saliva tests for travel and some other close quarter activities / returning to education/ hospital.

What people are missing is the early vaccines (in particular the Ox One) aren’t likely to stop transmission. That’s what I’ve read anyway. Talk of vaccinating a certain % to get herd immunity is irrelevant if the vaccine doesn’t stop the vaccinated person being infectious.

Agree testing will be probably as important if not more important than any vaccine.

As long as the virus continues to mutate we will have to get used to life as it is now

Not sustainable, economically or socially. Not that I've seen any evidence of rapid mutation, but if it does then we'll just need to live with it longer term.

Early to mid 2022 I reckon. Still so many unknowns on the vaccine front, so we may be luckier than that, but I'm going to lower my expectations and say we'll be living with some sort of new normal for quite a while.

@Oaktree55

What people are missing is the early vaccines (in particular the Ox One) aren’t likely to stop transmission. That’s what I’ve read anyway. Talk of vaccinating a certain % to get herd immunity is irrelevant if the vaccine doesn’t stop the vaccinated person being infectious.

That's why they need to give it to as many people as possible! Plus our government has options on various different vaccines (not just Sir PV's old company's one) and if these other vaccines work differently then the government needs to purchase those vaccines instead. I think a significant proportion of the population aren't going to resume normal (economic) activities until vaccination is widely available. Coronaviruses don't mutate as much as flu apparently, so vaccination can be organised differently.

2022

Isn't it more likely to be like the changes around AIDs ?

Now we practice safe sex as well as contraception. Blood in any context is treated as if it could be hiv +Dentists wear gloves

The game changer will be when we can have cheap, quick throwaway tests that can show definitely not Covid positive or maybe, on entry to anywhere.

Result Definitely not, allowed in to shops, malls, buildings.

Result Maybe, need the full test that can confirm whether positive.

Let me look in my crystal ball.

Nope far too cloudy.

2022 seems popular. Where does the vaccine production and the distribution chain come from in only 18 months?
Poking some numbers around I came up with about 4.5 years as rough guess for a vaccination program. Practically I guess it could be accelerated over that but it's a huge undertaking.

I am v. worried at all these long timescales. This is a hard way to live - not seeing elderly relatives, not being able to plan in general and more specifically not being able to plan for paid work in case DC get sent home for 2 weeks during term-time (without even being ill), etc.
The government would be short-sighted to skimp on vaccinations - especially if their policy and purchasing was different to other high-income countries.

All of you envisaging this continuing into 2022, what's your prediction on what sort of shape the economy will be in by then, and the level of job losses? Do you think people will continue complying for that long?
Care homes? Do you think that the elderly in care homes not having any visitors for another two years is feasible?

August 2022

@Eng123

2022 seems popular. Where does the vaccine production and the distribution chain come from in only 18 months? Poking some numbers around I came up with about 4.5 years as rough guess for a vaccination program. Practically I guess it could be accelerated over that but it's a huge undertaking.

I don't understand why you think the vaccinations would take so long? Each year we can manufacture a flu vaccine that changes every year and get it into every supermarket pharmacy, chemist, GP surgery for administration to millions. The Covid-19 vaccinations have already been manufactured in their millions of doses. The wait is for trial results and authorisations, not manufacturing. The existing network for administering flu vaccines can be used and expanded to deliver the Covid-19 vaccination.

August 2021

I was hopeful for spring until recently and now I don't even think 2021 will have any semblance of normality at this rate.

Though I have to say, I am enjoying seeing that gigs are going ahead in the likes of Darwin in Oz, as that makes me feel like there is some hope for non social distancing events etc. But we aren't Australia and our government haven't taken the same stance...

Care homes? Do you think that the elderly in care homes not having any visitors for another two years is feasible I worry about this. Have been avoiding elderly relatives since March in the hope that things would be different in autumn, then Christmas, now spring. It is a hilltop that we never seem to reach.

Lost opportunity to restart 'normal' life differently. Hopefully people will remember how much they enjoyed a slower-pace of life and spending time with family outside doing non-organised non-purchased activities

I hated the “slower pace of life” Not everyone wants to slow down.

You do know a lot of us lost everything when this virus had us lockdown

Our new improved normal isn’t a patch on our old life.
A walk in the park does not put food on the table or a roof over your head.

I take it that you had full income throughout lockdown. Try saying we should embrace free activities if your household income is reduced to £500 per month.

I think end of Summer 2022

If we opened everything up I think even without a vaccine it will be gone by Summer 2021

I think we aren’t saving people by prolonging the virus we ate just spreading the deaths over 2 years instead of 1

@Disconnect but the vaccines (at least initially) won’t be a magic bullet. Jeremy Farrar has written some interesting pieces on why not if you’re interested. It’ll be a combination of strategies which will allow restrictions to be lifted. Rapid testing will become normal I think for travel/events even work and school (once the technology is there).

Not before spring 2022. Even with an effective vaccine next year there will still be restrictions winter of next year.

If they are going to rely on testing they need to develop one that can be used on everyone as currently some people are forced in to 10 days self isolating every time they have a symptom because they cannot be tested