If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

[quote Eightytwenty]This is worth reading. McKinsey phenomenal about consolidating data to create possible outcomes.

www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end?cid=other-eml-onp-mip-mck&hlkid=f9b4cdb65e3446098defc195473fdd48&hctky=12412665&hdpid=4fd27b1b-03e8-4e7e-8b22-6508c38f921d[/quote]
But in regions with strong public-health responses, normalcy can likely come significantly before the epidemiological end of the pandemic.

That’s us fucked then.

Interesting read thank you

We will live with covid forever in some form as we do flu. We really need to get back to normal asap, but honestly, I don't think I'll be having my summer holiday again next year

Realistically I would say September next year at the earliest

I wonder how the economic harm of the Thatcher years will compare to the impact of CV19. The decimation of industry for political exploitation lasted through to the early 90s but I don't think life ever went back to "normal".

I think it will be seasonal for a couple of years - rubbish winters with a bit of a respite during the warmer months but only getting back to “normal” 2023. Southern Hemisphere will be OK from around Oct/Nov 2022.

I’m a happy camper tonight.

My predictions have been totally wrong so far. In mid-March I thought there's no way we'll lockdown. When we did I thought we'd e back to normal by end of Easyer, then beginning of May, end of May, end of June...... now I think next autumn. September/October 2021.

When will we be able to go about our business sociably, gather in groups, live well again? I reckon by Summer 2023 - but that we will be starting to head towards it and feel more open and confident by next spring.
2023..so you think people will tolerate not being able to live properly for another 3 years?? Absolute and utter drivel- a load of people trying to outdo each other in being the ones to make the most pessimistic prediction for fear of being naïve. I'd probably consider ending my life if things weren't much better well before then, at least then I wouldn't end up reading rubbish like this

@Bouncycastle12

I genuinely don’t understand why people think it would take a year to do the vaccinations. My local GP did 250 people in a day recently. That wasn’t even the doctors working - they were doing normal appointments. Injections aren’t rocket science.

This^

The flu vaccination programme takes about 8 weeks to deliver in a normal year. This year some teams are achieving targets in 2-3 weeks if they have the vaccine supply at hand. Most teams are going full tilt to complete the at risk cohorts ASAP.

Which is why they are blazing through supply and waiting around for new stock to crack on. Something the government have not planned for despite wanting the programme to go quickly 🙄

Lots of people can be trained to administer vaccines under supervision. No reason not to do it in 3 months. Fridges and storage tend to be more of a problem. Plus the government will try to control supply. Which they are not good at, see PPE and testing debacles.

Manufacturing a vaccine at scale, post approval, will take time. There is not an infinite amount of spare capacity waiting to be used. Every other country will want the vaccine at the same time so it's likely to be is short supply for quite a while. It's going to take quite some time to role out.

Probably Summer 2022 but next Summer we will probably have some of our freedoms back for the interim period

There have been pandemics in the past and life did return to normal-whatever normal is.

@inuet

When will we be able to go about our business sociably, gather in groups, live well again? I reckon by Summer 2023 - but that we will be starting to head towards it and feel more open and confident by next spring. 2023..so you think people will tolerate not being able to live properly for another 3 years?? Absolute and utter drivel- a load of people trying to outdo each other in being the ones to make the most pessimistic prediction for fear of being naïve. I'd probably consider ending my life if things weren't much better well before then, at least then I wouldn't end up reading rubbish like this

Don’t take any notice. Even the WHO have said the global pandemic will be over in under 2 years.

@inuet

When will we be able to go about our business sociably, gather in groups, live well again? I reckon by Summer 2023 - but that we will be starting to head towards it and feel more open and confident by next spring. 2023..so you think people will tolerate not being able to live properly for another 3 years?? Absolute and utter drivel- a load of people trying to outdo each other in being the ones to make the most pessimistic prediction for fear of being naïve. I'd probably consider ending my life if things weren't much better well before then, at least then I wouldn't end up reading rubbish like this

Agreed. 3 years. No way!

Spring 2022

Turned out all the years of austerity, asset-stripping and extraction, left us with an economy with not even 3 months resilience in it.

So true.

Locally we have businesses finding a way through where they can and I'm sup

That should read: I'm supporting them as far as possible.

I do wonder how the NHS is ever going to come back even to what it was before?

Our world is overpopulated and our lifestyles - which we want to return to normal - are responsible for this pandemic and the next up-coming crisis of climate change.

International travel, living in densely populated areas and a bums-on-seats economy has given this virus the opportunity to thrive. It is simple evolution. The virus can't move, only its host can. A moving host that comes into close contact with another potential host allows the virus to spread.

I reckon (with only gut feeling) that the effects of this virus will become weaker until it becomes a background illness like the flu or pneumonia - unfortunate for those that get it, but ignored by society as a whole.

But then climate change will come and affect our lives again. People complaining about pessimism are part of the problem because we should be examining our lives and making constructive changes.

@Yogatomorrow

Our world is overpopulated and our lifestyles - which we want to return to normal - are responsible for this pandemic and the next up-coming crisis of climate change.

International travel, living in densely populated areas and a bums-on-seats economy has given this virus the opportunity to thrive. It is simple evolution. The virus can't move, only its host can. A moving host that comes into close contact with another potential host allows the virus to spread.

I reckon (with only gut feeling) that the effects of this virus will become weaker until it becomes a background illness like the flu or pneumonia - unfortunate for those that get it, but ignored by society as a whole.

But then climate change will come and affect our lives again. People complaining about pessimism are part of the problem because we should be examining our lives and making constructive changes.

Yes, we can't go back to the way we were.

But people seem intent on doing so.

@Yogatomorrow what are the most important changes that need to be made would you say?

I know the question wasn't aimed at me, but we need to have an economy that's not based on people buying endless shit they don't need in order to "grow".

@inuet it’s incredibly crass to say you’d consider ending your life. Blimey some people.

I agree that we need to move away from an economy based on stuff but how? Genuine question. How do we make the shift and who loses out (I'm assuming people will) along the way?

I'm aware that could sound negative, it honestly isn't intended to, it's a genuine question for those who know about and can explain economics.

@HesterShaw1

I know the question wasn't aimed at me, but we need to have an economy that's not based on people buying endless shit they don't need in order to "grow".

But that's Capitalism.