If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

i think it is extremely unlikely that our lives will ever return to what they were pre-covid

Some normality next summer but still a lot of restrictions. I can't see summer festivals for example.

Then the same panic as soon as the virus season kicks off when the schools go back in September.

Summer 2022 I think will be when there's more normality when we might be able to get gigs and festivals back, crowds back at football, nightclubs back to normal and stuff like that. Assuming these industries are still going.

@kittensarecute I'm right there too. Hope you are ok, seen you a few times recently on similar posts

@Oliversmumsarmy

I think end of Summer 2022

If we opened everything up I think even without a vaccine it will be gone by Summer 2021

I think we aren’t saving people by prolonging the virus we ate just spreading the deaths over 2 years instead of 1

I agree with this.

What's more, nobody seems to realise that there will be nobody left to fund the NHS by the time 2022 rolls around, because there will be millions unemployed and more millions who no longer earn enough to pay tax (I fall into one of these categories, thanks to the greatest overreaction in history, namely lockdown).

It's a strange thought, really: the attempt to preserve the NHS could well turn out to have been its death knell.

@Devlesko

The idea of not being able to go to a gig for the foreseeable, for some reason I can't explain, just really gets to me. I know there are much, much bigger sacrifices being made and I struggle to articulate this exactly, it's not that this is the biggest sacrifice, even to me, it just seems to be the thing that gets to me.

Think how the musicians feel, I'm an entertainer, married and business owner to/with a musician.
We aren't expecting to be able to earn a living like this anymore and make up the many unviable out there.
I suppose it's how Coopers felt when barrels became machine made, or Wheelwrights.

it is absolutely tragic what is happening to the arts sector - we will soon be living in a cultural wasteland

During the summer I would have said mid to late summer 2021. However now I think probably Spring 2022. Shit though that is.

I also think we'll be dealing with the repercussions of this for many years, and even those will be eclipsed by climate change sooner than we'd expect, so that this whole time will fade into memory as we deal with increasingly challenging situations. We won't ever quite be able to go back to the world we lived in before. And the pandemic is just one part of why.

Since they're testing the vaccine until mid next year at the least, I'd say we have a other year at the least.

Happy to be wrong though if it's a bit earlier

I had to close my business so my life will not be returning to how it was a year ago. I can't see us booking a holiday in the next 3+ years, we were already frugal but cutting back more and I have realised I am happier with less.

Can't really see much change before next Summer, even if there is a vaccine. If we get a vaccine in Spring, we may start to see things opening again over Summer, but I think 2021 will be a year of slow change and we're probably looking at 2022 before we're anywhere near "normal", but even then, so many things will be different, i.e. a knackered economy, tax rises, some industries lost forever, etc. There's no going back to exactly how things were in 2019.

DF works for a major pharmaceutical producing the vaccine - they've already produced millions of doses and will have 'billions' ready to go at global hubs once approved.
It will then be a case of getting it out into the community - I read today that the army are being trained up to help with administering the vaccine.

@annabel85

Some normality next summer but still a lot of restrictions. I can't see summer festivals for example.

Then the same panic as soon as the virus season kicks off when the schools go back in September.

Summer 2022 I think will be when there's more normality when we might be able to get gigs and festivals back, crowds back at football, nightclubs back to normal and stuff like that. Assuming these industries are still going.

But according to the likes of Edwina Currie, Rishi, etc., the workers engaged in badly affected industries like those you mention should take care worker jobs or retrain in other industries, so you may well find some kinds of attractions/events etc are lost forever due to lack of staff/experience.

@user1497207191

Can't really see much change before next Summer, even if there is a vaccine. If we get a vaccine in Spring, we may start to see things opening again over Summer, but I think 2021 will be a year of slow change and we're probably looking at 2022 before we're anywhere near "normal", but even then, so many things will be different, i.e. a knackered economy, tax rises, some industries lost forever, etc. There's no going back to exactly how things were in 2019.

I think next summer will be about the same as the last one. People will go on holiday, flock to the beach every sunny day, pack out the beer gardens, go on walks etc, meet up with friends and family, make the most of the nice weather. But you're still going to have a raft of restrictions in all probability (short of some miraculous and swift vaccine).

There is a danger that next summer is marred by civil unrest given how many people have lost their livelihoods.

I genuinely don’t understand why people think it would take a year to do the vaccinations. My local GP did 250 people in a day recently. That wasn’t even the doctors working - they were doing normal appointments. Injections aren’t rocket science.

But according to the likes of Edwina Currie, Rishi, etc., the workers engaged in badly affected industries like those you mention should take care worker jobs or retrain in other industries, so you may well find some kinds of attractions/events etc are lost forever due to lack of staff/experience.

Well it does smack of "get on your bike and look for work" from the Tories of the day, like Tebbit in the 80s, knowing whole industries and communities were lost forever.

@Bouncycastle12

I genuinely don’t understand why people think it would take a year to do the vaccinations. My local GP did 250 people in a day recently. That wasn’t even the doctors working - they were doing normal appointments. Injections aren’t rocket science.

It doesn't need everyone urgently vaccinated anyway. Just the elderly and the clinically vulnerable primarily. As they are every autumn with the flu jab.

@Bouncycastle12

I genuinely don’t understand why people think it would take a year to do the vaccinations. My local GP did 250 people in a day recently. That wasn’t even the doctors working - they were doing normal appointments. Injections aren’t rocket science.

I agree. I am sceptical about the government claiming logistical issues, storage issues. The NHS is capable of doing this, and many people outside the NHS know how to administer injections: pharmacists, vets, dentists, although I must say I might be dubious about a solider (it isn't rocket science, but it does require knowledge of anatomy - it has to be the muscle not the fat layer etc). As a previous poster just said, the manufacturing side of the vaccinations is well in-progress, millions already produced and millions ready to be produced. I think we need to push for the vaccine and not accept spurious obstacles that the government are claiming. As the pp said, the pharmaceutical industry is ready for this.

Vaccine will be annual, at least initially. Lots of people don't get annual flu jabs even though invited to them, now.

Oaktree55
that makes no sense. Firstly how/why will it magically disappear? Vaccination and improved treatments will save lives as they’re already doing with Dexamethasone. We still don’t know how long immunity lasts and there are cases of reinfection being reported. If it’s like other circulating Cov’s immunity will be short lived, hopefully longer via vaccination

If immunity lasts only 6 months and everyone or enough to give a type of herd immunity can get it within 6 months then the virus can’t infect anyone if everyone is immune.

Yes the death rate will be large but saying it will be around for ever and every year people will die from it will, in the long term make the death rate from this virus so much more.

Also struggling to see why my first post was nasty.
Just because doing free activities and a slower pace of life is someone’s ideal lifestyle doesn’t mean everyone enjoys these things and having a reduced income compared to no income is not the same. There is a big difference to not having money to pay mortgage/rent/council tax etc and not having money to be able to go out and spend.

@Userzzz

Yes of course the government really want to decimate our economy and have 5 million unemployed . It’s their ultimate goal .

🤦‍♀️

@Unsure33 I really don’t think the conspiracy theorists think it through 🤣.

[quote Unsure33]@Userzzz

Yes of course the government really want to decimate our economy and have 5 million unemployed . It’s their ultimate goal .

🤦‍♀️[/quote]
the number priority for any government, anywhere, is to stay in power - nothing else matters. That doesn't mean they deliberately they want an economic mess but so long as they remain in power so be it.

If things are going well, they want to stay in power. If things are going badly, they want to stay in power.

Power is not a means to an end. It is an end in itself.

I work with the delivery and administering of vaccines. It’s not giving the vaccines which takes the time, it’s all the red tape to get to that point. If the government want to get a vaccine out quickly they could do so but they have to work on how the program would be implemented. Sounds straight forward but track and trace has been for other countries and just look at where we are.

@RedToothBrush

I've have said Summer next year a few weeks ago. But it already becoming apparent that there are going to be problems with the roll out of a vaccination.

The FT (and BBC) have reported today that there is an issue with expectation management over the virus and are reporting that only half the population will be eligible for the vaccine.

Thats the clinically vulerable and over 50s. Other adults and children won't be getting it.

That raises something of a question over travel.

Its highly likely that many countries (including the UK) are likely to require a certificate of vaccination as a prerequist to entry.

So where does that leave 0 - 49 year olds in terms of wanting to go on holiday? My suspicion is that answer is when vaccine is available to the private sector, then the only way you will be able to travel to many places if you are age 0 - 49 is if you pay privately to be immunised....

... so everyone might want to consider this when assessing when they think life will 'return to normal'.

I think holidays in Bognor and Bangor could be around for a while longer.

Great, DH (66) can go on holiday while I (45) stay at home! It'll save on the cost of cat sitters I suppose!

[quote Eightytwenty]This is worth reading. McKinsey phenomenal about consolidating data to create possible outcomes.

www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end?cid=other-eml-onp-mip-mck&hlkid=f9b4cdb65e3446098defc195473fdd48&hctky=12412665&hdpid=4fd27b1b-03e8-4e7e-8b22-6508c38f921d[/quote]
Thanks for the link - that article is really interesting and makes great points.

On a vaguely related point, it is scary that some things get forgotten in the non-stop developing news about the pandemic, e.g. the BCG vaccine is mentioned in this article as potentially helpful. I remember that being mentioned months ago but had totally forgotten. That vaccine has been around for decades - surely we could have given that to the generations of young people who missed out due to changes of health policy in recent years. That could have been done while dedicated vaccines were being developed.