If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

@LadyCatStark not necessarily. There are a lot of young people and children shielding, my life span is expected to be fairly average and I'm only 36. To be honest most of the people I know who are shielding are under 40

We had a massive pandemic in 1918 and things went back to normal again within 2-3 years

The difference is the pandemic was ended by there not being enough people to infect any more - ie herd immunity, that is (probably rightly) not the approach now, so the restrictions will have to last until an alternative ending is found, the experience of then is not relevant.

Even the WHO have said they anticipate it will be over in under 2 years. And that’s the pandemic generally. I think once it’s been around a bit and not a novel virus it won’t be as bad as now but will probably sadly see off some people in the older and more vulnerable groups every year like flu does now. Current measures are not sustainable as the economy can’t function at this reduced level of capacity for much longer. Sad as it is we are just going to have to accept some level of Covid deaths permanently.

@Disconnect

If we’re locked down until 2022 that sad fact is that a lot of the people who we’re trying to protect now will have died anyway Don't think those in their 70s who are hoping to reach their 80s or 90s will agree with this! Just because you are deemed elderly and vulnerable at 70-something, doesn't mean you only have a year or 2 left on this earth! Many of them will have another decade or more to live for and we do need to protect them.

And how does destroying the economy for 2 years protect anyone?

To the point where vaccination had been sufficiently distributed in a worldwide programme, including Africa....2023.

To go back to attending international conferences and travel to meetings that I used to do..... spring/summer ‘22.

To seeing family in groups larger than 6 and including my parents’ generation (in their 60s, 70s and 80s) maybe over summer ‘21.

@OneFiveFour

There is no return to normal. There is only the normalisation of the way we will have to live to deal with the impact of this - medically, socially, employment, economy etc.

Oh honestly

By next June things will be a lot better. We can hold a lot of get togethers and events outdoors at the very least.

I don't think things will ever be quite the same again, but I don't think it is necessarily bad news, so long as politics doesn't go totally mental.

When will we be able to go about our business sociably, gather in groups, live well again? I reckon by Summer 2023 - but that we will be starting to head towards it and feel more open and confident by next spring.

Mid 2022, by then we will have learned how to manage test/track/trace. Not entirely sure vaccination is going to do the job. Talking about needing 2 doses with some of the likely "winners" and even then maybe not long term protection. Is it going to be added to the annual flu jab?

oops - I meant Spring 2022 not 23.

Hardly anyone unless very scarce of the virus will carry on social distancing with friends and family past spring 2021. Tbh we aren’t with family now anyway. The government know this!

Scared*

On the one hand we aren't booking a summer holiday, not making any travel plans for next year really, as who knows what will happen. So we are a bit on pause in that respect.

On the other hand, I would be absolutely delighted if we got back to normal more quickly!

2 Years - so spring 2022 I think. It'll wear itself out. There'll be some vaccination, some flare ups....but I'm not sure what normal will look like by then. I think there will be more WFH - some industries will have completely died.

I work in Critical Care and we had a guy over from from Oxford collecting some stuff for their vaccine research and he reckoned at least 2-4 years.

That's the medical side of it, I guess he meant getting everybody vacinated and the virus totally under control. He was very interesting.

vaccinated , sorry phone

@GiraffeNecked

2 Years - so spring 2022 I think. It'll wear itself out. There'll be some vaccination, some flare ups....but I'm not sure what normal will look like by then. I think there will be more WFH - some industries will have completely died.

I think some companies may disappear but if the demand returns you will get emergent companies meeting that demand. If there is money to be made it somebody will seize that opportunity.

The idea of not being able to go to a gig for the foreseeable, for some reason I can't explain, just really gets to me. I know there are much, much bigger sacrifices being made and I struggle to articulate this exactly, it's not that this is the biggest sacrifice, even to me, it just seems to be the thing that gets to me.

Tentative I agree. I love live music

If we’re locked down until 2022 that sad fact is that a lot of the people who we’re trying to protect now will have died anyway Don't think those in their 70s who are hoping to reach their 80s or 90s will agree with this! Just because you are deemed elderly and vulnerable at 70-something, doesn't mean you only have a year or 2 left on this earth! Many of them will have another decade or more to live for and we do need to protect them*

And how does destroying the economy for 2 years protect anyone

Not sure where you got 'destroying the economy' from? I never mentioned anything of the sort.

I mentioned protecting people in their 70s who could live another 10-20 years if they don't die of Covid-19. That could be something as simple as shielding them and ensuring they have protected grocery deliveries and pharmacy deliveries and parcel deliveries/collections.

I don't want to lose my parents this winter if they could live another 10-20 years. Why should anyone die unnecessarily? But I certainly don't think shielding the elderly involves destroying the economy.

@Pyewhacket how interesting I’d love to speak to people at the coal face of this must be fascinating.

Sad as it is we are just going to have to accept some level of Covid deaths permanently Not sad, tragic and unethical and inhumane. Death is worse than economic hardship, no matter where you stand on the health vs the economy debate, it is very evil to be so blase about unnecessary death.

Late 2022

Hopefully spring. International travel maybe later. Things like conferences are probably changed long term and more WFH.