If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

@Oliversmumsarmy no need to be nasty - I should have pointed out that I knew I was being naive. And my work/income has also been substantially reduced by the pandemic. So my reduced spending is not entirely idealistic, but to some extent caused by lack of money. But I am not blaming others.

God even on the most constructive threads someone has to come on and be personally nasty

The thing that is always missing from those just wanting everything back to normal and letting covid do the rounds, is that it relies on NHS and school staff not striking and walking out.

We need to get the vaccine ready and rolled out, which is 18 months away before I imagine it would have a significant impact. But then you would also hope that the government would have rapid testing across the country and a tracing system that actually works.

Medical clinics are only just getting back underway in many areas, all these things will go again if hospitals are full of covid patients again.

I agree with Spring 2022. I generally take a long haul trip each year and in my head I have written off next year as being normal enough to take such a trip.

@Oaktree55 I have read the 'not a silver bullet' article, but remain optimistic! I will be following what is happening in other countries closely and what vaccines other countries purchase and who they give them to. I think our government rely on most people not looking beyond our own country and believing that how the UK is experiencing this pandemic is the only option.

@Oliversmumsarmy that makes no sense. Firstly how/why will it magically disappear? Vaccination and improved treatments will save lives as they’re already doing with Dexamethasone. We still don’t know how long immunity lasts and there are cases of reinfection being reported. If it’s like other circulating Cov’s immunity will be short lived, hopefully longer via vaccination.

I think they might impose restrictions on us for a while but I think beyond next summer most will be largely ignored i.e. Household mixing etc.

Spring 2022 but things will improve before then.
Totally a theory but my logic is

• late this coming summer the vaccine will come out

-early autumn there will be vaccinations for vulnerable people

• winter will hit and some restrictions will remain

-Additional vaccinations will take place over the winter months -By spring 2022 most people will either have immunity from having had it or vaccinations.

@Disconnect most other countries are handling better than us but unless you’re planning to emigrate and with vaccines being in short supply you’ll be stuck with this Gov and their approach I’m afraid.

@Disconnect
The reason I think a vaccine will take so long is based on the Flu vaccine. Yes its given to about 14.3m people a year, we need to deliver about 40m. Hence approx 3 years. My basis is on the bottom of page 1.

Normal is a state of mind. Some people will never go back to how things were, some of us are mostly normal now

The type of normal you are referring to OP, I think is gone forever.
I think things will open again, but theatres, concerts,sports events will have much reduced capacity
I genuinely think that masks and social distancing are here to stay, I hate them but am trying to reconcile with the fact they are going nowhere.
I think we will be encouraged to maintain limited contact outside of work and any economy boosting activity. Large private gatherings I think will remain banned, maybe max number 30 for weddings funerals etc.
I think the government will push the fact that this won't be the last pandemic in order to keep restrictions in place.

Re vaccines and travel - we already have to pay for vaccines for travel purposes (eg typhoid, yellow fever, hep A, Jap Encephalitis etc) so perhaps this will be the same unless people are considered vulnerable.

Early 2022. A vaccine next spring will still take at least a year to give to everyone.

I think it is more likely that an effective treatment not a vaccine will be the path to normalcy. I read yesterday that it is only expected that the over 50s will receive the vaccine anyway (if it comes at all) it would be more reassuring to know that if you get it there could be a treatment that prevents damage and prevents death.

I don't think things will ever be exactly the same as before - it is a bit of a 9/11 moment really. But I think next year spring / summer things will be good again.

And I think it’s impossible to predict if/when things will return to normal. I agree withPP our understanding of normal will change too.

Hopefully summer next year as that is my third time I have had to book a wedding date but I refuse to book a fourth date.

I've always wanted to be normal...

For activity day to day, I think spring into summer of next year. Concerts and mass gatherings, I think mid 2022.

For the economy, I think we will be seeing the effects of this for at least the next 10-15 years. I am afraid to even guess what the mental health and physical health (cancer, diabetes, care in pregnancy, consequences of missed GP appointments) consequences will be.

Spring/summer 2022 is my guess.

@Sarahandco 9/11 is such a good analogy. I think you’re right there will be longer term changes as a result of this where testing etc become the norm similar to how we all just got used to the air travel changes from 9/11.

Gosh, I thought I was pessimistic and cynical, but I think I must be a secret optimist! I think many people will struggle to live like this for anything other than the short-term.

I don't really want to return to "normal", we can do a lot better than the ridiculous unsustainable economy and society we had previously.

[quote Eng123]@Disconnect
The reason I think a vaccine will take so long is based on the Flu vaccine. Yes its given to about 14.3m people a year, we need to deliver about 40m. Hence approx 3 years. My basis is on the bottom of page 1.[/quote]
But it doesn't take anywhere near a year to administer to the 14.3 m.

@Disconnect but how is say testing etc that disruptive to people’s lives? I can’t see it’s a problem if it enables larger gatherings etc to go ahead or travel to other countries.

@Graciebobcat yes I agree I think Society will be better off in many ways longer term and I agree many things will hopefully be rebuilt better. Change is always resisted, human nature!