How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

They won't close on mass. It will be localised and They will close other things first. They need to keep school open.
They need to get test and trace working properly. Hopefully soon.

Are you defining an 'affected' school as one with 2 children isolated at home? Or only whole bubble/class closures?

Oh my god! Enough with doom mongering!

It really depends on what you mean by “affected”. Schools can remain open to at least some of their pupils if there are enough staff not isolating. Part of the problem back in March is that as soon as self isolation rules came in there were huge staffing problems - my husband had to on several occasions combine two classes and teach both simultaneously as there was not sufficient cover. It really depends on who is affected and how

I think schools will only close if there are not enough teachers due to sickness or self isolating.

they wont I don't think, or at least not the way they did before. It'll be bubbles going home and possibly 2 weeks on two weeks off in high schools if/ when things get really tough.

@Prettybluepigeons

Oh my god! Enough with doom mongering!

This. ^

How about we offer parents a choice of home schooling if they wish (with some consultation with schools about how the parents will manage this). Then people who can't manage this at home can send their kids into safer schools and there might be some leeway to make school conditions safer esp for vulnerable teachers.

Some resources to make things safer in state schools would be good. e.g. allowing use of community buildings, getting in appropriate people to act as TAs.

Our small school is close to March level of meltdown already with various members of staff and children off with coughs and colds but being unable to get tests so having to isolate for 2 weeks.
This means that remaining staff are having to cross ‘bubbles’ to act as supply cover and a sizeable chunk of each day is taken up with Covid related admin. I am someone who was optimistic about schools reopening but it’s falling apart much quicker than I expected and that’s mostly due to the lack of tests

That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days

Yes they did... the whole of Leicestershire. Thousands of children started back a week earlier. Not that it negates your point, it just riles me that no one (even the government, it turns out) knows that the whole of Leicestershire has different summer holidays to everywhere else

Should have said our school (Leicestershire) has been back three weeks. No cases, no teachers off and no bubbles having to isolate yet. Same for the other primaries and the secondary in our town.

Of course individual schools will close, same with individual classes. We can see this, over 500 schools have so far been impacted. However, all closing down en masse? No.

However, the government should have been taking the school issue seriously from the day they suspended education. They should have been ensuring that other ways to educate our kids was put into place for all years, instead now they face even more disruption to their education.

The figures floating around

• 342 England
• 106 Scotland
• 64 N. Ireland
• 31 Wales
• 518 pupils infected
• 127 education staff infected
• 51 schools with multiple infections

There are 32,770 schools including early years, independent and pru.

As I've been saying since the government published their plan.

It will be an obvious failure by half term,

In a sane country schools would be closed again for a rethink by Christmas*

(since it will be obvious to all that schools are fuelling the spread.)

This government however, has explicitly ruled that out.

And we are no longer a sane country.

*the new plan should be implemented ASAP and should include blended learning and much smaller bubbles.

But my fear is that we will have let the infection level get so high by then that the children have to be off for months again.

With exponential spread early intervention is always better.

Let's hope we've learned that lesson from March.

I'm loathe to post as have just been rebuked for negativity and 'talking the country down' on another thread, but...

I don't know that we'll get blanket closures. On the other hand without test trace and isolate working well, I don't see how we don't get a lot of bubble/school closures.

Things are already pretty hairy in e.g. Bolton, but they haven't moved to the blended learning option yet, so I have no clue how bad it needs to get before they do that.

I am not very optimistic generally.

They won’t. We cannot destroy children’s education anymore for a virus that doesn’t much affect them.

Blended learning is all very nice for those with understanding employers who work from home. Millions don’t have that luxury & their children will lose out. And it’ll be poorer families who are most affected as they are more likely to do jobs that cannot be done from home. I’d say I’m fairly middle class and a reasonable earner. Not loads. But I’m not struggling. But I’m a key worker & I cannot home educate my child. I don’t have time. My employer expects me to work, they aren’t very family focused. Even in a pandemic. As soon as nurseries opened, I was expected to put my child back in & work properly. Luckily my DD is nursery aged at the mo & I don’t worry I’m failing her education but if she was primary, I’d be gutted.

Stop with this middle class, Mumsnet luxury of being able to blended learn. Most can’t. Unless they reintroduce Furlough or make it the law for employers to have to allow flexible working. Even then, many jobs can’t be flexible. And mine that was, I was working 24/7 basically. Looking after my kiddo, working when she was playing & catching up until 2am. It was soul destroying. Not sustainable long term.

In my area of Scotland the kids have been back 6 weeks with no increase in cases, no burst bubbles and no teachers dropping dead as some said. That’s both primary and secondary.

@Kaktus

Should have said our school (Leicestershire) has been back three weeks. No cases, no teachers off and no bubbles having to isolate yet. Same for the other primaries and the secondary in our town.

www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/leicester-leicestershire-schools-confirmed-coronavirus-4493382

Fake news then?

Presumably Kaktus lives in one of the Leicestershire towns not affected. That’s literally what she said.

Not in the foreseeable future. We have been back 5 weeks. In the first two weeks we had a lot of staff and pupils having tests. This has settled down. I haven’t had a child in my class have a test in the last three weeks and only a few in school. The negativity doesn’t help anyone. I suspect we will be open until the bitter end should it come to that.

I think it will be a really last resort and only if staffing levels fall below the legal requirement for safety.

@Deliaskis
I suppose it will be a mixture of isolated cases, particularly in the early days and more large scale outbreaks.

@herecomesthsun
Would have been nice and hopefully something that will be available in the future.

@Diddlysquatters
Precisely what so many feared on the run up to opening.

@Kaktus
Sorry, didn’t realise that. Thought the whole of England would be starting in September. Good that there’s been no problems there.

@ChavvySexPond
One thing I missed from op, is it’s also how it affects the rates nationally. 30+ people in a small room for 6 hours can’t be anything other than a recipe for disaster. Both in that school and how that affects community spread. Come Monday more than 6 people won’t be able to meet outside but 30 indoors is fine?

That’s to say that cases started rising in Scotland mid August and elsewhere recently. If schools are found to be a huge driver in transmission then I can’t see how things can carry on.

Fake news then?

Errr.... no. I just live in one of the towns in Leicestershire that doesn’t have any cases. I didn’t say no schools in Leicestershire had cases .
Leicestershire is a county. A fairly big one.

The schools in that link are all at least 20 miles form me.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

In my area of Scotland the kids have been back 6 weeks with no increase in cases, no burst bubbles and no teachers dropping dead as some said. That’s both primary and secondary.

Same here