How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Bewareoftheblob

No

I would like to homeschool, but not permanently, only for the next few months, to keep us safe (ECV).

We are able to teach ourselves, though we wouldn't choose to do this permanently. Permanently would have more disadvantages, temporarily would just get us through the next few months more safely.

We just need to know what areas need to be taught.

@herecomesthsun

Home schooling has always been an option available to all.

Here what you suggest would lower numbers but it wouldn’t stop community cases coming in. You’d still be facing the risk.

What is the likelihood if you take a break to homeschool over the next year that you can’t re-register?

I don't think there will be mass closures and not all schools will need to fully close even if there is a positive case.

My son's primary has been back two weeks -no cases, no sick teachers/TAs. All operating more or less as normal. Obviously, there may be issues later but at the moment, it's working well.

I work in a large 11-18 school. 1500 kids plus about 200 staff. Been open two weeks. Attendance in the high 90%s throughout, no staff off isolating/with cases. A handful of kids isolating due to returning from holidays in places where we require people to quarantine on return. None have symptoms. Probably 4 or 5 isolating because a family member has it.

A girl in my form had one day off while she was tested -was negative, she had a cold. Back in school the next day.

We are in an area where additional restrictions have been imposed.

Was the same back in March -we had no staffing issues and very few children off.

As a teacher of Y11 and Y13, I am hoping that things continue the way they are.

@EducatingArti

No libraries, other churches, sports centres, gyms, dance studios, empty shops ? I can actually understand how villages might not have space but a small town? Maybe in certain places it would need to be portacabins on playing field/ in parks?

Older secondary students would mostly be able to work alone from home, not all parents would need the facility. Only half of student needing it at any one time. You might be looking at space for 200 students needed? I think with a will and sufficient funding it could be done.

I worked this out for decent social distancing - ie the situation we returned to at the start of June.

Essentially, every school needs a twin, of the same size, with the same size of staff, and equipped in the same way, for it to work.

So a typical primary with 14 classes needs 14 spaces of at least classroom size, with sufficient toilets for bubbles not to meet unnecessarily and access to outside spaces. An 8 form entry secondary needs at least 40, probably more to accommodate options.

Also Oak Academy can help you see what needs to be taught,

I agree with Cant the amount of space required is a lot. I don’t know what proportion wouldn’t have it but how can some schools do and and others not?

@Bewareoftheblob

No

I would like to homeschool, but not permanently, only for the next few months, to keep us safe (ECV).

We are able to teach ourselves, so we would be willing to have very little input from schools.But we wouldn't choose to do this permanently. Permanently would have more disadvantages, temporarily would just get us through the next few months more safely.

Not permanently. Just for a few months. The government seems to be making it very difficult for families, even ECV, to do this.

Do it

A girl in my form had one day off while she was tested -was negative, she had a cold. Back in school the next day

Availability of testing is a real issue with this, though. Minimum absence of 5 days here, once time to get a test, hundreds of miles to drive, and delay of test return factored in. This is one area where being in am area with additional restrictions is of huge benefit - you are prioritised for testing and access is therefore much less of an issue.

@Kaktus

How does this impact childless people - because they have to pick up more at work?

The significantly increased tax bill they’ll be facing to pay for it, I imagine.

Also young adults are the ones having their lives curtailed the most by restrictions on socialising and going to events, and are being blamed for the rise in cases when they have been encouraged to go out and spend to help the hospitality industry. Is it any wonder a healthy 23 year old who only socialises with or plays sports with other healthy young people would get pissed off with it all.

@MarshaBradyo

If we taught our kids at home the risks would be pretty low (we are good at shielding).

We would want to follow the schools' curriculum so that they could go back hopefully next year. I think this is different to Oak Academy. We could teach the kids all sorts of stuff, but I think focusing is important to minimise problems in the future.

Both schools over PAN so potential problems with deregistering, we'd be prepared to be fined before deregistering.

I

Here yes I can see you can be at lower risk if you homeschool completely. I did think you meant they would go in part time. I think you should consider it, as your dc are ECV.

I don’t know how you can find out what the school are covering, I didn’t realise Oak was not the curriculum.

@herecomesthsun

Do that then. I'm not seeing the issue.

@EducatingArti

No libraries, other churches, sports centres, gyms, dance studios, empty shops ? I can actually understand how villages might not have space but a small town? Maybe in certain places it would need to be portacabins on playing field/ in parks?

Older secondary students would mostly be able to work alone from home, not all parents would need the facility. Only half of student needing it at any one time. You might be looking at space for 200 students needed? I think with a will and sufficient funding it could be done.

Well it’s true, we don’t have any of those things. Well a small library that would fit 3-4 people. Very small town and we’ve had no funding for facilities for years and years (I am involved in this area professionally).

Who is 'enjoying' it??

The doom-mongers of Mumsnet who spend their days filling up repeated threads about it. What will they do when it's all over - though they all say things will never be normal again, so they'll probably keep finding something Covid related to discuss for years on end.

November. Plenty are booking half term breaks with some going off the week before half term.

We need the schools to give us a leave of absence and this seems to be very difficult given the government's current position. So I am reluctant to deregister. At the moment, I have one kids in and one kid out of school. The one out of school, we don't have the curriculum information for.

I think the government should change their position.

@Kaktus

Should have said our school (Leicestershire) has been back three weeks. No cases, no teachers off and no bubbles having to isolate yet. Same for the other primaries and the secondary in our town.

We are in Leicestershire. My son has been in college 2 days and already a student has tested positive and the bubble is isolating . Fortunately not his bubble.

Just de-register and make the best of it if you feel that scared.

Scotlands cases were rising prior to schools reopening and a majority of clusters have been linked to house parties or in aberdeens case alot of pubs.

Aberdeen locked down before any schools reopened.

Schools won't close. Well, primary schools won't. Seems they are safer than secondaries, and once we're past the new excitement of testing and isolating, parents will be less likely to test for sniffles.

Schools will continue with current mitigation measures, a few here and there will close bubbles, but most will kepp on trucking.

The mitigation measures are hard for school staff though, logistically, so I won't be surprised if there are a lot who leave for a few years.

Why should I deregister when I don't want to homeschool permanently and I am only considering it as we are in a pandemic?

It. Is. Illogical.

My dds primary school had a case this week, one class is isolating. There are another 16 classes which are not isolating - so by that logic we'd need at least 17 cases in different classes to close the school. My 2 dds both had coughs, they missed 2 days of school then were back. I think this is a temporary thing, everyone in the school seems to have a cold, must be a weird immune system issue since they've been away so long, I'd expect it to settle down.

Isnt the test availability thing just a temporary quirk, sure the first place I was offered was 300 miles away, and I had to refresh for an hour but we did get a same day test less than 10 miles away.theres also a walk in centre in our town where you didn't have to book. This can't be isolated, surely all the people saying there's no tests just aren't trying for long enough or finding out what the local facilities are.

Here I understand it’s tough but you can only make decisions in the system we have. Of course talk to your school, lobby MP but you’ll have to decide whether to keep them in or not based on what you think the risk is.

Also join homeschool groups, there must be an indication of curriculum? People homeschool then join school already at will