How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

[quote 2X4B523P]@PleasantVille

Not gleeful and hoped that I was wrong but just saying where things seem to be heading and how many had hoped for better prevention to avoid this.[/quote]
Didn’t think you were gleeful at all. We need to face what is happening. I could tell that you were just trying to wake people up to it and that you posted because you care. 💐

I read yesterday that France was even considering paying people to home school (can someone confirm I didn’t dream that please!).

Wowser, would like to hear more about this!!

Before anyone says well Europe hasn’t closed schools, France just introduced a payment scheme for one parent who needs to stay home when schools close. Israel just gone into full national lockdown again.

Our track and trace is crumbling. I know where I’d put my money. Oh yes I forgot we’re different 🙄.

I think there’ll be a minority of schools in rural locations that escape but that’s it. It’ll be stop start all winter.

@sunseekin

And please don’t be relaxed by the number of positive tests. People can’t get tests. It’s a shambles.

You could argue that they clearly can as well over 100,000 people get a negative result everyday, we need to do something to address the allocation of tests to those most likely to actually be infected.

I saw a thread on here the other day where people were getting tested to go on holiday, if it hasn't already that needs to be stopped as well as allowing people without any symptoms to get one.

AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

In my area of Scotland the kids have been back 6 weeks with no increase in cases, no burst bubbles and no teachers dropping dead as some said. That’s both primary and secondary.

Well said!

Scotland here also, one of the areas that have had further restrictions put in place. Plenty of schools locally with confirmed cases, track & tracing those affected, isolating for them and life goes on... Absolutely no school closures and why should there be?

@Frankthefrenchie

Re Scotland I follow Devi Sridhar who is advisor to Scottish Gov who wrote last week in Guardian about the likely need for further school closures given the mess the tracing system is in. Read the article.

metro.co.uk/2020/09/11/france-will-pay-parents-to-stay-at-home-with-kids-if-schools-have-to-close-again-13255108/

Here's an article about French plans

The government (and teaching unions) needed to be more honest about what part time schooling would actually mean. Realistically it would mean children being left without any learning on the days they weren't at school (as the teachers would be busy teaching the kids that were) and non-core subjects being dropped entirely.
If you would be happy with your child attending 2 days a week for a curriculum consisting of English, Maths, and potentially a bit of ICT and Science in primary and English, Maths, French, Science and potentially ICT in secondary (which much of it taught by uninterested non-specialists) it may have worked but if you would like your children to get a full education including creative and physical subjects it'd have been a complete failure.

@sunseekin
Exactly, it was only this morning I heard on the wireless that the UK was on the brink of loosing control of the situation. Was driving so missed who said it but was on Radio 2 news.

Until term ends for the Christmas break

Yes part time school becomes very sparse when KW etc childcare is provided. Schools here could not take all years back in June as no space after KW provision.

All years expected I mean yr1, 6 etc

@ChanceChanceChance
Unless the government want to ensure the young to actively revolt they cannot offer any more preferential treatment to parents. Young childless adults are completely fed up at being placed with the biggest burden while having the smallest level of risk, and it simply isn't feasible to do anything else that will negatively impact them while retaining peace in the community.

That French system makes me tense. The amount of debt being mounted up

What @Bol87 said.

Depends how long it takes for the poor teachers to get sick.

I'd have liked everything else shut at the end of August to create a break between public mingling and schools going back. But that horse long bolted.

@Oaktree55

Said advisors may give an opinion but I work for the Education Dept of a large local authority and have been directly involved with the schools and closures from the beginning of the national lockdown. Scotland will not be closing schools, it will be the absolute LAST resort. It is being managed extremely effectively and I’m saying that as a parent and an employee.

My town had barely any cases during lockdown and we spent most of the time at or near the bottom of the list of local authority areas with the lowest number of cases. Since schools opened our rates have shot up and three secondary schools have confirmed cases. Our LA has 7 secondary schools so 3 out of 7 have cases.

[quote StatisticalSense]@ChanceChanceChance
Unless the government want to ensure the young to actively revolt they cannot offer any more preferential treatment to parents. Young childless adults are completely fed up at being placed with the biggest burden while having the smallest level of risk, and it simply isn't feasible to do anything else that will negatively impact them while retaining peace in the community.[/quote]
Do you mean in relation to the French plans for home school?

How does this impact childless people - because they have to pick up more at work?

Somehow we need to get somewhere without seeing everything as sections of society but a whole society perhaps.

@MarshaBradyo exactly re debt. I’m not sure many are considering the medium/long term implications of this. I think it will impact education too. The recession we will enter into as a result of this will be unprecedented. Everyone still has their eye on GCSE’s/A Levels/Uni etc as it has been for past 15 years. It won’t be like that. There won’t be jobs as there have been. I think apprenticeships will make a resurgence, not as many will go to University etc.

Don’t underestimate the changes this will bring about and have a blinkered view that education will continue as it has existed recently. I don’t think it can.

How does this impact childless people - because they have to pick up more at work?

The significantly increased tax bill they’ll be facing to pay for it, I imagine.

@Frankthefrenchie it’s still in the Guidance though 2 weeks on 2 weeks off isn’t it or is Scotland different in that regard? The issue is the track and trace in England at least is failing. There isn’t much margin of error.

@pinkflorals
Exactly the scenario which could increase the chances of national closures. Shows how schools can contribute to community transmission.

@Frankthefrenchie also don’t forget Gov guidance is based on the assumption children aren’t transmitting much. Are you up to date with the emerging evidence they are? Belgium’s health minister (I think) came on record saying most transmission occurring in schools.

[quote 2X4B523P]@pinkflorals
Exactly the scenario which could increase the chances of national closures. Shows how schools can contribute to community transmission.[/quote]
No it doesn’t. Correlation does not mean causation. Schools driving transmission could be increasing cases in the wider community, or increasing cases in the wider community could mean more cases in schools. The fact that contact tracing isn’t identifying schools here in Scotland as driving raised transmission rates would indicate against the first one.

You seem very sure you’re correct, for someone who says they wish they were wrong.