How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Prettybluepigeons

Oh my god! Enough with doom mongering!

Yep, it’s like people are addicted to the drama and want it to be like it was in March again.

Though saying that the stress in March did cause me to loose half a stone so maybe it’s not such a bad thing.

@Kaktus

How does this impact childless people - because they have to pick up more at work?

The significantly increased tax bill they’ll be facing to pay for it, I imagine.

Oh right.

Feels quite small in the whole picture if it is only for the schools that close. They plan to extend furlough etc so it'll get wrapped up in that maybe.

I guess it helps mitigate the risk of lost education.

Part-time blended learning, if the government was willing to put money into additional "learning centres" ( based in church/village halls, sports centres etc) staffed by carers/ teaching assistants who could play the role of supportive adult to help a child do the remote part of their school based learning. Vulnert children and those whose parents need to work could attend.
The reduced class sizes when the children are in school would actually support their learning and if remote learning was geared by teachers towards consolidation and practice of skills learned, then I think most could make excellent progress.

I posted this in early August, when we were awaiting the 'new guidance' that never came:

"I expect there will be no new guidance on the 11th.

I expect that the existing version of the guidance (released without warning or notification on 27th July) will be updated frequently, and randomly, often late at night, in the weeks between 11th and the start of term.

I then expect schools to be working with very different versions of the guidance, unsuspectingly, because they will now know when it has been changed.

I anticipate that the end of august will see an announcement from boris about hopw great everyone being in school will be, promising / threatening at least 3 things that have never ben mentioned in the guidance and are impossible in practical term.

i then expect another version of the guidance 3 days later from the DfE, who will have tried to square the circle between existing guidance and what BJ has said, creating something even more inconsistent thereby.

I then expect schools to open, with mixed success. Those who have interpreted the guidance in a way that turns out to be 'successful' will be praised, and others who have quite at random interpreted it in another will be vilified for 'failing children'.

Schools will start cliosing again within a fortnight, and we may have a workable version of guidance for the rest of the year (blended learning with smaller classes) by half term. "

So far, I have been correct, with only the final part of the final sentence yet to go, though the praise and vilification of schools hasn't yet been in evidence, probably because it is being overtaken by the huge increases in cases nationwide and they can't blame the schools yet.

I stick with closure by half term and a significant change in guidance - probably Tier 2 [part time for secondary and full time for primary] but some additional control measures in the community as well e.g. closures of any settings where school bubbles meet.

@Kaktus
Basically yes.
The government have basically told the generation at the start of their careers to put their lives on hold, while destroying their career prospects and lumping them with trillions of debt which will lead to them paying higher taxes in the future. Meanwhile those with children believe they should be exempt from the rule of 6, while being able to keep their children in school and if that becomes impossible they are now expecting to be paid to look after their own children. If anything it would make more sense to ban school aged children and their parents from leaving the house for any purpose other than school, work, medical appointments or buying groceries, while allowing the childless to visit pubs and the like in order to keep the virus out of schools.

In a sane country schools would be closed again for a rethink by Christmas

(since it will be obvious to all that schools are fuelling the spread.)

In a sane country people wouldn't have taken the first opportunity they could to fly abroad for 2 weeks in the middle of a pandemic when flight corridors were being closed left, right and centre. In a sane country foreign travel, for now, would be on a needs must basis but no, lets blame the reopening of schools instead.

Given that children have been pretty limited on what they can actually do for the last 4/5 months seen as though all their out of school activities have been closed, where exactly do you think they have picked Covid up from in the first place if not through their parents. It is obvious that the reopening of pubs etc has fuelled an an increase yet no-one is questioning whether they should all be closed back down again, just the schools.

Blended learning is possible for some. Those who can do it free up teacher time and space to make things safer for the others. It's a pandemic, it's only for a short time.

There are
SAH parents
parents who are redundant
parents who are for any reason not working, early retirement in some cases, maybe health issues that would impede work but allow support of home schooling,
parents who can flexibly work
other family members who might want to / be able to support home learning

I am talking choice not compulsory, and for children and families in high risk groups, it could save lives over the winter.

My area has a low rate of infection right now, so of course, we've been happy to experience no closures.

However, I have a good network of family/friends who are school teachers/staff in North London. From talking to them, it's only a matter of time until school closures start (well they have started, two secondary schools have bubbles burst this week). It will occur due to parents feeling their coughing, untested children should still come into school, or staff having to take time off for symptoms or childcare issues. One friend has personally had to send a child/children home everyday last week

The testing issues need to be sorted rapidly. I can't even blame parents/teachers/schools for getting fed up of it all and doing whatever they need to, but this will just make things worse/closures more likely. Things are not looking good, but we hope for the best.

while allowing the childless to visit pubs and the like in order to keep the virus out of schools

Um - what about childless school staff?

[quote StatisticalSense]@Kaktus
Basically yes.
The government have basically told the generation at the start of their careers to put their lives on hold, while destroying their career prospects and lumping them with trillions of debt which will lead to them paying higher taxes in the future. Meanwhile those with children believe they should be exempt from the rule of 6, while being able to keep their children in school and if that becomes impossible they are now expecting to be paid to look after their own children. If anything it would make more sense to ban school aged children and their parents from leaving the house for any purpose other than school, work, medical appointments or buying groceries, while allowing the childless to visit pubs and the like in order to keep the virus out of schools.[/quote]
Tbh I might go along with that

It's increasingly clear that some people are really enjoying this situation and want it to continue.

Kids are back at school. Attendance - despite some claiming that they wouldn't send their children in - is excellent, at least in my school. We need to just get on with it and stop being so bloody scared all the time.

It'll be staff ratios rather than the number of kids positive.

@EducatingArti
Those kinds of rooms simply don't exist in many areas, and even when they do many are being used in ways that better support the wider response to corona virus.

@Bewareoftheblob 🙄seriously

It's not that people want it to continue, but one normal response to new or uncertain situations is to think about them or discuss them.

Not everyone processes things the same way. Some like to look on the bright side and hope for the best.

No one way is right or wrong, just different brains.

I will of course be super happy if the people who think the virus is going to mutate to a harmless strain are proved right!

I suspect we’ll see everything else closed down before schools, and indefinite national school closures coming only as an absolute last resort. The impact of lost education is absolutely massive and even a government as incompetent as BoJo’s are aware of that.

Like everyone else, though, I’m just speculating.

@Oaktree55

Seriously

I'm not sure about that really. Lots of church halls empty because they can't do social activities and libraries could also be a good option as they already have public computer access. It would also not be needed for all children as some would be able to study at home.

@EducatingArti

I'm not sure about that really. Lots of church halls empty because they can't do social activities and libraries could also be a good option as they already have public computer access. It would also not be needed for all children as some would be able to study at home.

There are 2 primaries and a large secondary in our small town. Approx 1700 children total. We have a church hall that would fit 15 with social distancing (I know this as I have done the risk assessment on it for a voluntary group I run) and an additional venue that would fit 20 (25 at an absolute push).

@herecomesthsun

Blended learning is possible for some. Those who can do it free up teacher time and space to make things safer for the others. It's a pandemic, it's only for a short time.

There are
SAH parents
parents who are redundant
parents who are for any reason not working, early retirement in some cases, maybe health issues that would impede work but allow support of home schooling,
parents who can flexibly work
other family members who might want to / be able to support home learning

I am talking choice not compulsory, and for children and families in high risk groups, it could save lives over the winter.

How would this work in practise? Do those children turn up part time and then receive extra h/w?

I suppose you could split the sessions in morning and afternoon groups to get numbers down. But then it does take teachers teaching all day and preparing their work that they have missed. Maybe it’s not too hard to do that, not sure.

@herecomesthsun

Blended learning is possible for some. Those who can do it free up teacher time and space to make things safer for the others. It's a pandemic, it's only for a short time.

There are
SAH parents
parents who are redundant
parents who are for any reason not working, early retirement in some cases, maybe health issues that would impede work but allow support of home schooling,
parents who can flexibly work
other family members who might want to / be able to support home learning

I am talking choice not compulsory, and for children and families in high risk groups, it could save lives over the winter.

So you'd like teachers to teach in person and also remotely?

Well, we managed over the past few months.

It depends a bit on the parents and the kids. Us, we could manage with just the curriculum, so we know what content they are wanting the kids to do. We'd be a bit limited with design technology, but could do a lot of the other stuff. We would need the text books (or online access to them, something like that) but not really much else.

Additional on line teaching resources would be great, whatever schools are able to have available (but not entirely necessary). I think if they pool resources, and produce on line resources with other schools, it would cut down the amount of work by a lot.

@ChanceChanceChance

I read yesterday that France was even considering paying people to home school (can someone confirm I didn’t dream that please!).

Wowser, would like to hear more about this!!

I know! Think it may have been an article in the online mirror though! 😂

No libraries, other churches, sports centres, gyms, dance studios, empty shops ? I can actually understand how villages might not have space but a small town? Maybe in certain places it would need to be portacabins on playing field/ in parks?

Older secondary students would mostly be able to work alone from home, not all parents would need the facility. Only half of student needing it at any one time. You might be looking at space for 200 students needed? I think with a will and sufficient funding it could be done.

@Bewareoftheblob

It's increasingly clear that some people are really enjoying this situation and want it to continue.

Kids are back at school. Attendance - despite some claiming that they wouldn't send their children in - is excellent, at least in my school. We need to just get on with it and stop being so bloody scared all the time.

I know absolutely nobody who is enjoying the situation.

Even those essentially unworried about the risks are hating the incessant intrusion of the very few safety measures we have, and those worried about the risks have that AND worry about the risks to contend with.

Most kids are back at school, yes.

Every year group has children off with illness - non Covid but still ill - or awaiting tests.

We are also contending with both the inefficiencies of in-school delivery imposed by the few safety measures (desks in rows facing forwards, multiple handwashing times, staggered arrival and departure etc) AND the work required to keep children at home educated AND plan for wider closures of classes or year groups.

Who is 'enjoying' it??