How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@MarshaBradyo

On the plus side everyone talking on R4 from scientist to politician reiterates importance of schools and education.

I don’t think anyone is arguing about the importance of education.

That doesn’t mean schools won’t close or switch to blended learning if the infection rate doesn’t come down though. Whilst schools are open-the lines of contact and transmission are flowing and having hundreds/thousands of people mixing in schools as well as large numbers of parents outside them is difficult to ignore.

LetsEat schools open is their priority

They may be young, but will they ever reach their full potential?

I don't even know what my children's 'full potential' would mean, because it can be measured so many ways and has aspects of personality, choice, friendships/influences etc. For example if I do or don't opt for a school with strong performing arts I may limit a child's 'potential', without ever knowing that potential existed.

I just get them all to do their very best and that's what I will do through this school year, however bumpy it gets.

I don't even know what my children's 'full potential' would mean, because it can be measured so many ways and has aspects of personality, choice, friendships/influences etc. For example if I do or don't opt for a school with strong performing arts I may limit a child's 'potential', without ever knowing that potential existed.

I just get them all to do their very best and that's what I will do through this school year, however bumpy it gets

This is so Mumsnet. Little consideration for others

you will also find i wasn't talking about my children. They are not 2 of the 2 million who did not engage with learning during lockdown.

Even if we had another full school closure, I would make myself ill juggling work and everything else just to ensure they did what they needed to regarding their education.

But 2 million children didn't. Why would blended learning be any different.

@Timeforanotherusername

you will also find i wasn't talking about my children. They are not 2 of the 2 million who did not engage with learning during lockdown.

Even if we had another full school closure, I would make myself ill juggling work and everything else just to ensure they did what they needed to regarding their education.

But 2 million children didn't. Why would blended learning be any different.

I am very concerned about the children who didn't engage, but your post read as though you were talking about your own children?

This shows what some areas are dealing with after 2 weeks: 8,000 healthy children 'off' and 82 schools impacted that they know of I'm aware of some schools with cases that haven't been picked up by local media, so in reality this figure will be more than 100.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/more-8000-well-kids-school-18958533

Well I reread and I must have got because you were clearly talking about others. I'm sorry.

Of course I worry about them.

As I said upthread, my family has a lot of experience of/with disadvantaged families, I am not going into details, but my children being in school full or part time or not at all won't help them.

I want more targeted support, one size fits all doesn't fit anyone really.

Repeat tell me where?

my kids will be fine educationally because 1/ they are young enough 2/ they have got DH and I.

The social aspects of missing school- well I only hope that doesn't impact them too much. DS has missed over half this time at school so far

But a large number of their classmates will probably not fare as well.

They may be young, but will they ever reach their full potential?

I don't disagree with more targeted support.

I don't agree with forcing children in with ecv parents etc.

I am coming round to the idea of masks.

Sorry I missed your last post!

@Timeforanotherusername

Sorry I missed your last post!

I realise I feel very fatalistic.

I think the people at the bottom educationally financially and in social inclusion terms were falling way way behind anyway - and my view is the pandemic will probably, due to the political choices being made, widen that whether school is full time, part time or online. I just have no faith the government cares about that group.

I am personally not in a well off or privileged position at all, but we are stable which should never be underestimated.

Whatever school ends up being like my kids will be where they always were in the relative pecking order of school attainment I guess.

But I would really very much like more support for others.

I'm sorry if I came over as only thinking of 'mumsnet typical' concerns, that isn't my thinking at all.

I think we have such different paths in this country, we had a facade of equal opportunity before and now it has been shown to be a facade. I guess I tell mine confidently they will be ok because I know very well what properly not ok looks like.

Mine wants to do medicine @RepeatSwan he needs to do more than “fairly well”.

repeat I don't think anyone on this thread is catastrophising in any way not to their children nor in general, but minimising the impact and saying things like 'oh well it will be fine' when it may not be fine at all is dishonest and disingenuous! How are you helping your child by not allowing them to communicate their feelings?

Our children won't get a second chance at their GCSEs, or the opportunities that evolve from them (or not)

There may very well be parents that are completely relaxed and indifferent, but for those of us with high achieving, dedicated academic children that have been and continue to work around the clock, and are aiming to study medicine, to not even know if they are going to be sitting the exams in a few months, and if school will even continue to remain open in a matter of weeks. It is creating uncertainty and stress, because it really matters. And why wouldn't it, given they have worked so hard, pretty much on their own for half the year with little or no support, since the age of three they have been working towards this moment.

I find it incredulous that some parents are so relaxed about education, it is absolutely fundamental to a child's future.

I am most concerned for the children that are being left behind, those that do not have loving homes, they stand no chance at all.

Agree with Friends and Madame

If they need to do well in exams to get to their next stage then it’s critical.

School and studying was my whole life when I was a teenager. Whether that’s right or wrong it was. It’s awful to be so dismissive of young people who may literally see their lives in shreds.

Idea my teen and peers have come up with.

When pubs/restaurants get closed, these to be used as classes. Pubs in particular have the added benefit of overhead projectors. They have already been assessed for max capacity. Not suggesting they run the classes, although it would be handy to keep one or two on site for lunches

But until government put their hands in their pockets, it's all pointless. And the only way it can be done is for more borrowing because priority with spending never included children. Priority was dodgy deals with mates - pressure needs to come from us to force those dodgy fuckers to pay it all back, and they will have to suck it up if they lose money.

THey've seen for themselves once the schools closed they became forgotten about. The few times they did get a mention it was to say schools are safe - the only way mine and his peers would have fallen for this is if they weren't allowed access to the news.

They've been told for years - EXAMS EXAMS EXAMS. You NEED to get GCSE's to do well anything. You NEED to study and stay focused.

Now they are there the end is in site. Many would be talking excitedly about the next step. Normally they would be getting more freedom and independence from home.

Instead study what? When they aren't in they aren't getting taught. Paper packs aren't enough (not the schools fault)
Stay focused on what? They don't even know if they will manage to stay in school the whole day never mind a week or half a term.

The current system puts the UK to shame.
Remote parts of the world children get an education have done for years even before computers came into classrooms.
During Wars there is still some semblance of education something about consistency helps.

UK nothing. But then what do we expect, get a bit of snow or too much sun and parts of the country grind to a halt

@canigooutyet

Idea my teen and peers have come up with.

When pubs/restaurants get closed, these to be used as classes. Pubs in particular have the added benefit of overhead projectors. They have already been assessed for max capacity. Not suggesting they run the classes, although it would be handy to keep one or two on site for lunches

But until government put their hands in their pockets, it's all pointless. And the only way it can be done is for more borrowing because priority with spending never included children. Priority was dodgy deals with mates - pressure needs to come from us to force those dodgy fuckers to pay it all back, and they will have to suck it up if they lose money.

THey've seen for themselves once the schools closed they became forgotten about. The few times they did get a mention it was to say schools are safe - the only way mine and his peers would have fallen for this is if they weren't allowed access to the news.

They've been told for years - EXAMS EXAMS EXAMS. You NEED to get GCSE's to do well anything. You NEED to study and stay focused.

Now they are there the end is in site. Many would be talking excitedly about the next step. Normally they would be getting more freedom and independence from home.

Instead study what? When they aren't in they aren't getting taught. Paper packs aren't enough (not the schools fault)
Stay focused on what? They don't even know if they will manage to stay in school the whole day never mind a week or half a term.

Agreed.

This quote springs to mind:

'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, it's just possible you haven't grasped the situation'

I think the government might have to give consideration to this academic year being repeated. I know it is logistically difficult as each year needs to move up to make room for the next. But it seems likely that most of this academic year will be disrupted, unlike last year when most of the teaching year (at least for the exams yeargroups) had already taken place and it was mostly just exam preparation left.
I can't see how the current year 11s and 13s can take exams in the spring and I can't see how the current year 10s and 12s will have received anything near the amount of teaching and learning they need before entering the challenging exam years that follow.
I think that currently the Reception year in primary school is still counted as nursery education (early years) and thus is not even part of the proper education system, so perhaps some logistical change could be made at that level?

If not repeating the year, which I can see would also impact universities, then at least extending the school year in 2021 if the virus is under better control then.

And obviously pay teachers overtime for any teaching done over the holidays.
(the NHS currently would not function if the nurses did not do a lot of overtime).

My response to various comments above are:

1. I also have a child aiming for something difficult, so they want specific grades too
2. I am not laissez-faire at all about education
3. We discuss the children's feelings a lot

I can't work out this thread as it flips between concern for disadvantaged children and concern for high achieving children. Both of those are legitimate concerns but not necessarily addressed in the same way.

Ultimately this winter will be what it will be, and I will just do all I can to mitigate the impact.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8754889/Pupils-wont-ready-levels-GCSEs-year-Covid-disruption-teachers-warn.html