How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

I can't work out this thread as it flips between concern for disadvantaged children and concern for high achieving children. Both of those are legitimate concerns but not necessarily addressed in the same way

Because some of us have both and are concerned about both?

It’s resolved in exactly the same way for both. Keeping them in school. That’s in the best interests of both my child with special needs who struggles and my NT high achieving one.

repeat Or we could just be concerned about ALL children and not flipping from one or the other at all. They are ALL important, they ALL deserve a chance in life and a good education. Not difficult to understand now hopefully.

1380 schools now affected. This was the figure I quoted for the end of the second week. It could be argued that this was accurate, all schools have now been back for two full weeks and the staggered first week back could be allowed for testing lags.

It seems that todays briefing from Chris and Patrick have paved the way for further restrictions and Boris is set to make an announcement tomorrow. Let's hope there can be measures which will keep schools open, protect the economy and protect lives.

Do most agree that primary schools are generally safer than secondaries transmission wise? Very close to removing my eldest DD from secondary school for various reasons, but am considering keeping my younger two in primary.
After watching the conference today I feel confident we will have a vaccine next year and I want to minimise my and my DC's chances of contracting Covid before that occurs.

@Beebityboo

Do most agree that primary schools are generally safer than secondaries transmission wise? Very close to removing my eldest DD from secondary school for various reasons, but am considering keeping my younger two in primary. After watching the conference today I feel confident we will have a vaccine next year and I want to minimise my and my DC's chances of contracting Covid before that occurs.

Beebity do you have someone in the family who is CEV or CV? It might help with answers

Want to add that I'm aware we probably won't be first in line for a vaccine but when vaccines begin to get rolled out the situation should start to really improve and I just want to be here when that happens

@MarshaBradyo I have a blood clotting disorder, we were never included in the shielding as in the beginning Covid was just considered to be a respiratory disease and for some reason, even after the link between Covid and blood clots was established, the guidance was never updated - so throughout all of this I have been having to do my own research and my own risk assessment (not easy for someone with a lifetime of issues with anxiety).
I do strongly feel however that I do not want to take my chances with this virus, not with a vaccine being so close. I just want to get through the Winter in one piece.

[quote Beebityboo]@MarshaBradyo I have a blood clotting disorder, we were never included in the shielding as in the beginning Covid was just considered to be a respiratory disease and for some reason, even after the link between Covid and blood clots was established, the guidance was never updated - so throughout all of this I have been having to do my own research and my own risk assessment (not easy for someone with a lifetime of issues with anxiety).
I do strongly feel however that I do not want to take my chances with this virus, not with a vaccine being so close. I just want to get through the Winter in one piece.[/quote]
That is difficult and I can see why you are feeling anxious about it.

Can you homeschool your dc effectively do you think? Oak Academy is still running.

My eldest is highly motivated in things she is interested in and as she isn't in an important exam year (year 8) I think we could manage it. I don't think I could manage to home ed my two youngest, they have very different personalities and my middle DC was bordering on becoming depressed in lockdown, so removing him would be a much harder decision.

@Friendsoftheearth

repeat Or we could just be concerned about ALL children and not flipping from one or the other at all. They are ALL important, they ALL deserve a chance in life and a good education. Not difficult to understand now hopefully.

At no point have I suggested different children are not equally important, but as I said upthread a one size fits all solution usually ends up fitting no one very well.

Ultimately full time school with disruption, part time schooling, fully online schooling - they'll all have impacts. Sadly full time schooling without disruption does not seem available, however much my children and I wish it was.

@2X4B523P

1380 schools now affected. This was the figure I quoted for the end of the second week. It could be argued that this was accurate, all schools have now been back for two full weeks and the staggered first week back could be allowed for testing lags.

It seems that todays briefing from Chris and Patrick have paved the way for further restrictions and Boris is set to make an announcement tomorrow. Let's hope there can be measures which will keep schools open, protect the economy and protect lives.

I hope there will be testing prioritised for schools both staff and pupils.

It is too late once a staff member has contracted it, as then they have to isolate.

The government needs to do more to keep the infection out of schools.

They can't stop it entirely due to asymptomatic cases, but to not test symptomatic pupils promptly risks the whole school system.

I think everywhere will pose a risk to you bee, depending on where you are based and what your area is like in terms of transmission.

In your position I would now be preparing to shield - I wouldn't have either child in school for much longer, and would probably shield including shopping deliveries and stop socialising completely. When and exactly how you do that is your decision. Here the primaries have been affected more, and only one secondary school - in time I expect all schools to have some experience and cases at some point over the winter. It is going to be luck of the draw where those cases pop up.

Given your risks, assuming your consultant has confirmed those risks are high now as they were before I would be definitely reconsidering everything. Boris is making an announcement tomorrow, so you haven't long to wait if you would prefer to follow official guidelines.

My shielding friends have already taken their children out of school for the record.

I never got a shielding letter and the official line is by condition doesn't increase my risk which makes no sense.

@Beebityboo

I never got a shielding letter and the official line is by condition doesn't increase my risk which makes no sense.

Hi, I know you've posted about these worries before.

You might be able to get some legal advice on what might happen if you do keep your children off.

Personally I don't see how fines can be fully enforceable if the testing systems etc are not in place to ensure schools are as safe as they could be whilst cases are rising. But I am no expert!

I think schools will be low priority for testing as they will prioritise care homes and nh

Oops . Care homes and nhs first

Without testing in schools, teachers will be off sick, surely? - meaning school closures and risk to teachers.

Whilst care homes are terribly important, surely uncontrolled in the community puts them at greater risk even with testing?

Testing needs to be available for anyone who needs tested.

And i do think regular testing for teachers is a no brainer - so ot won't happen!

Ah okay so you are not considered vulnerable at least medically speaking.

It is a big decision to pull your children out of school, because you are not officially vulnerable I guess. So you may have to consider homeschooling if you are that worried, and deregister altogether.

I personally would not go down the route of not gaining the agreement from your school and just waiting for the fines to roll in, it won't be just fines - you could find yourself in court being charged with non attendance, given you can't confirm you are clinically vulnerable it may be considered unreasonable that you took your dc out of school for the autumn and winter months to the courts.

If you are going to send in one child, you may as well send in both. Try and lower your overall risks but limiting what you do outside of school, and who the children see etc. Washing hands as soon as the dc are home, washing clothes carefully every evening and evaluate again at half term.

Anyone concerned should speak to their head. Locally heads are not fining in the short term - but this is very fragmented, complicated by academies etc.

Don't deregister before speaking to the head.

Heads have more discretion than the government likes to admit.

@RepeatSwan
You’d hope so, they had plenty of time to sort it before schools go back. Maybe they will now get on top of it, having seen the (predictable) issues that are arising.

I agree talk to the school first.

Afaik all secondary year are important because the lower years help to build the foundation for secondary years.

The other issue will be getting a place when you decide to get back into the school system. You will be given any school that has a space not the original school. The curriculum is taught at different stages in schools so this also complicates in year changes.

Another issue that has been mentioned on here is that secondary are seeing an increase of in year requests as parents are having to move their children out of private for various reasons.

It was something that I was considering, I've been through the process before and regardless of how motivated the teen is, it can still be hard for them socially. Of course, there are some fab home school networks around. It can be incredibly frustrating as they try and teach themselves if you don't have that knowledge.

I can understand your concerns. It's hard for them as well to go to school because they are on edge, not wanting to pass something onto you. Of course we tell them not to and these things happen.