How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@herecomesthsun

Because, like it or not, it's your only option if you want to keep your children at home without being hassled regarding attendance.

It's tough shit. You want special circumstances for you, but that isn't available.

Imagine all the hurdles parents go through to get their kids into a school of their choice. Then a pandemic comes and people are telling parents, who have valid concerns, to deregister. Why? Who gains from a vulnerable parent/child having to choose this option because they feel trapped into a corner of fines/court vs health. This is not a forever situation, so doing something as drastic as deregistering/off rolling seems unfair.

@JayDot500

Imagine all the hurdles parents go through to get their kids into a school of their choice. Then a pandemic comes and people are telling parents, who have valid concerns, to deregister. Why? Who gains from a vulnerable parent/child having to choose this option because they feel trapped into a corner of fines/court vs health. This is not a forever situation, so doing something as drastic as deregistering/off rolling seems unfair.

Yes it is but how will you change it?

De-register or don’t turn up, or do. That’s what there is unless you lobby successfully. Which you can do of course.

I mean I could say don’t put up with it! But then what should Here do?

en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse

This is a really interesting look at what countries are doing what and where schools are currently open or not.

Currently the majority of the northern hemisphere has schools are least partially open if not fully open

(not sure why the UK is partial?)

@fishywaters

They can’t close schools nationally again. It has to be case by case basis, if you have a government mandated national closure then all insurance policies for all schools are invalidated - and some schools just won’t have cases so on balance it is not fair to the children and young people, nor does it make sense. We live in a society where older people tend to have all the power and money and children and the young are disenfranchised. Government has a duty of care towards the young too. We really don’t want a young generation revolting now do we?! We don’t want the young to resent the older generation for whom they ultimately have to pay once they work and pay taxes. So it has to be a balancing act.

So you think it costs the country nothing to educate, give health care to, etc., Children?

By the time a person reaches adulthood they've cost this Government a fortune and when they are old or unwell they too will expect this country to support them.

Their taxes paid for your education, dentistry, vaccinations, social workers, libraries, benefits (if claimed), so yes the young are expected to pay for the old, just as the old have paid for the young.

I believe there’s a move for a judicial review of the DFE guidance - it’s so far wide of the science it would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious.
If we do not introduce mitigating measures for a highly infectious airborne virus, then yes, schools will close as rates of transmission, illness & death in wider community will make it unsustainable to keep them open. Mid-October will be crunch time.
Introduce mitigating measures - masks for all in all indoor settings would be a good place to start and a working test, trace & isolate system - and maybe we have a shot of keeping schools open this winter & our kids getting the education they deserve.
Parents should also be given freedom to home school without losing their place. This would help with physical distancing for those in school. None of this is complicated or expensive & it beggars belief it hasn’t already happened.

Parent's are being met with an array of responses from their DC's school. The territory is very unclear and it seems like schools are behaving very differently. So all we can do is write to MPs, sign petitions, and trying to keep an open channel of communication with school. Some have deregistered, and this is fine if that's their choice. It's not fine if they felt forced to do so.

The head at DS' school has been supportive and understanding. She does not intend to fine us, but DS is currently in school because our area has low rates. If we were in Bolton, for example, DS would certainly not be in school right now,. If it went to court, so be it.

I will never deregister DS from a school he's happy with. It's not his fault his dad is ECV.

You can't expect to home school with support from the school in terms of learning resources. That's not feasible from a work load perspective. Your school's curriculum has to be on the website - I think it's the law.

@herecomesthsun can your kids contact siblings of their friends who have covered this school year? I did this for my eldest. Their friend had a sibling who had just completed the year. I asked them for topics up to HT for each subject and gave him an Amazon voucher for her trouble. All school text books are available second hand on Amazon for about £1 each. It’s been pretty easy. I have a maths tutor who works with them on line.

No intention of permanently homeschooling either. It is easier for me as mine are at Independent but I’m reading a lot of Heads are being supportive.

Pubs etc should close before schools.
I think it will be down to availability of teachers as I think they want to avoid using supply teachers.
Homeschooling doesn’t work for all. And already disadvantaged & at risk children will have fallen back and through the cracks. As a society we have to sacrifice other things to enable our young children the education they deserve. Especially as they will be the ones paying back the bill :(

@Oaktree55
What they taught Y3 (for example) last year isn't necessarily going to be what they are planning on teaching Y3 this year. Especially in schools with mixed year classes there is usually some leeway in the curriculum to allow topic based subjects (like history) to be taught on a 2 year rotation so that the teacher doesn't have to teach one group about the Romans and another about the Victorian era at the same time.

I live in a large town in Leicestershire and we have no cases in any of our schools at the moment and have also been back foe 3 weeks.

@StatisticalSense well I sent to our Head who checked with subject teachers and all was exactly as I had predicted.

They will not close the schools.

@StatisticalSense maybe because mine are early Senior/commencing GCSE it’s more predictable.

@ohthegoats

You can't expect to home school with support from the school in terms of learning resources. That's not feasible from a work load perspective. Your school's curriculum has to be on the website - I think it's the law.

I'm not asking for much in terms of learning resources. A leave of absence would probably do.

In our primary school, a student was allowed to go overseas with his family for several months over the winter and then come back and take up his place in the spring. An arrangement like that would suit us fine. It would cost no one anything (we would be doing work normally done by the schools, ourselves). What I don't understand is why the government would want to stop people from doing something that actually makes schools potentially safer.

I would only deregister if I had absolutely no alternative, quite possibly after having paid some fines.

As regards the curriculum, the outline of GCSE work is on the website, but that is several years away.

I could start teaching GCSE texts now, but it seems a bit early (and also I have a DC that gets bored with repetition.)

What I need to know is what areas they are covering in class over the next 6 weeks, and it's not on there.

@herecomesthsun at a last resort google kids year and subject and lots of other schools come up with topics for that subject/year/term.

Yes you may not be exactly right but you’ll just end up learning something early that year and they’ll feel confident when it’s covered later in the year. If you miss the odd area you can quickly make up for it later on.

I think this is true for most subjects except maths. I’d always delegate maths!!

If I was in charge, I'd try to keep primary open, due to smaller bubbles, less socialising and childcare need. There also tends to be a greater adult to child ratio in terms of TAs in some primaries.
For secondary, I'd do week on, week off. Teachers would repeat the teaching in the second week, so because planning is already done, there's time to plan the online work. Children still benefit from social interaction. Any younger y7 and y8 needing care could be accommodated, but in my experience, this doesn't tend to be many. Govt would have to step up with some IT provision. Hopefully the smaller class size would reduce community transmission and speed progress too.

I agree with 13:11Bol87 Blended learning only really works if parents are able to take time off work, which they can't. I WFH, and my work has been understanding to a point, but having to make allowances for kids being home and no childcare being available out of school was really starting to wear thin on them, despite me getting my work done and not having any issues there. Zoom meetings were just horrid and stressful.

Unfortunately we live in a society which resents people needing to put their family before work and regard it as taking the piss. We have to treat 'everyone fairly' even though we all have different circumstances and the situation working parents found themselves in during lockdown was far from fair or equal. It was fucking awful trying to match my child-free colleagues output while caring for a one and five year old, and terrible for them too. We really do need to keep schools open, but agree that the SAH parents should be allowed to temporary home school or part school if they wish while the school keeps their place.

One issue other than vulnerable dc is if homeschool was allowed as people wished it would be very hard to maintain the same level of learning across the class. Students would re-enter the system at different levels and it would be hard to help them catch up.

What I need to know is what areas they are covering in class over the next 6 weeks, and it's not on there.

In primary schools teachers are probably still assessing where the children are actually at, so that they can plan what to teach. There is no point going straight into the year 6 curriculum if half of the class are not secure with the year 5 curriculum.

@MarshaBradyo

One issue other than vulnerable dc is if homeschool was allowed as people wished it would be very hard to maintain the same level of learning across the class. Students would re-enter the system at different levels and it would be hard to help them catch up.

Yes this would be an issue. A close friend who is a primary teacher says she has at one end of the scale those who were already ahead and worked throughout lockdown, and at the other end those who were already behind and did nothing through lockdown (and obviously everything in between).

@Bewareoftheblob my DS secondary school has said that by half term at the latest they will be set up for all classrooms to be able to support in person and virtual learning at the same time. Enabling those unable to attend to still follow their timetables. School is also supporting those within internet and equipment. If the government had prioritised education this could have been rolled out countrywide, reducing class sizes and therefore the amount of contacts.

@MarshaBradyo your point about there being disparity across the class with homeschooling. This will happen anyway, as numbers rise some parents will remove kids, children off isolating. I think most teachers will be spending a lot of time helping those behind so even if a child has 100% attendance this year the teaching won’t be as it normally is. There’s too much disruption for many reasons.