How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

Schools closed in lockdown and isolated areas, I think is a probable scenario. However, nationally, I think everyone in primary will be encouraged to go to school wherever possible. Some schools might close temporarily due to staffing levels or because too many children have tested positive. Secondary schools I think might well end up closing for a while but it will be the shortest duration possible.

We've been told if one of us gets covid track and trace are asking the school to isolate everyone who has used the same bathroom as them.
Secondary school, one staff bathroom for each sex in each building. There's about 25 female staff in my building who would have to isolate. We couldn't stay open if that happened.

Don’t think country wide school closures but think the government should revert to blended learning for all to reduce the amount of contacts one family is making. No doubt we will continue as we are and react to the situation as it develops rather than being proactive.

Isn’t is about time Mumsnet made a Corona/school topic? How many threads do we really need about this?

Then I think the figure of 'affected' schools can't meaningfully be used to answer your question.... because a small number of children isolating, even if replicated in every school/town/region, is no rationale for schools to close en masse.

@CKBJ if they had gone ahead with blended learning in Scotland I would have DC in primary Monday, Tuesday and 11 year old just started secondary in on a Thursday, Friday. I would have needed care everyday of the week or to give up my job in community nursing, those were my choices. Blended learning would never have worked for the vast majority

They have to keep open. If nothing else to allow parents to work!

@2X4B523P

That’s to say that cases started rising in Scotland mid August and elsewhere recently. If schools are found to be a huge driver in transmission then I can’t see how things can carry on.

They don’t seem to have been a huge driver for transmission in Scotland though. The number of children being tested has risen a lot since the schools went back, but the number of positive cases in children has not. The big rise in cases has been in people in their 20s-40s, and the contact tracing system (which is working fairly well in Scotland, reaching 90% of close contacts) is tracing the spread back to informal household gatherings much more than schools.

There will be people on here who are absolutely certain all schools will close again soon. Many of them will be the same people who were absolutely certain English schools would not return by September, let alone before then. So...

All of them closed at same time never....why should be

Schools will outbreaks yes

@CKBJ

That’s what they should have done in the first place, at least until they saw the implications of that and then increase if figures allow. I fear that if it ends up a complete disaster then blended learning won’t even get a look in.

If a school has an outbreak, they will close the school, and there will be localised lockdowns.

If things gets worse and continue to do so they will impose a curfew, make people work from home again and shut pubs before deciding on a nationwide closure of schools. I highly doubt we will get to that point.

I don't think they'll close en made since the infection rates vary so much across the country. If I lived in the SW I'd be pissed off being treated the same as say Manchester where the situation is very different

Surely the issue is less the number of schools affected than the numbers of transmission that result from the infections there?

Maybe schools will close en masse again maybe they won’t but I find the eagerness for this to happen on MN very weird indeed.

Local areas will be affected and some will (and have) closed year groups.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii not all parents would have childcare issues. And this may be a better approach to prevent schools from closing. Where I am plan is to keep primary schools open and move to a 2week in 2week out in secondary if infection rate rockets and only close as a last resort.

@MadameBlobby

From my perspective it’s not eagerness for them to close, it’s for them to have had plans to prevent it from happening in the first place.

I don't think schools will close again fully. There will be isolated or partial closures.

Schools in my area have been back for 2 weeks, not a single one has closed

Of course there are cases in schools no one with any sense could have expected otherwise, the virus isn't going anywhere soon we live with it like the rest of the world does

I would really love to know if other countries spend so much time doom mongering and in a state of constant negativity or do they adopt a sensible stance and get on with live in a new way.

You seem to be almost gleeful that you think you're right even though anyone could have made a stab that hundreds of school might have had 1 positive test. There are millions of school age children and a tiny number of positive tests

They can’t close schools nationally again. It has to be case by case basis, if you have a government mandated national closure then all insurance policies for all schools are invalidated - and some schools just won’t have cases so on balance it is not fair to the children and young people, nor does it make sense. We live in a society where older people tend to have all the power and money and children and the young are disenfranchised. Government has a duty of care towards the young too. We really don’t want a young generation revolting now do we?! We don’t want the young to resent the older generation for whom they ultimately have to pay once they work and pay taxes. So it has to be a balancing act.

[quote CKBJ]@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii not all parents would have childcare issues. And this may be a better approach to prevent schools from closing. Where I am plan is to keep primary schools open and move to a 2week in 2week out in secondary if infection rate rockets and only close as a last resort.[/quote]
Not all no. But many would. I can think of a lot of people at my DD’s school who would either have to give up work or use grandparents for childcare.
We’d cope, just. We’d have to go back to DH working 6am-2pm while I had the children and me then working 2pm-10pm while he had them.

@herecomesthsun

How about we offer parents a choice of home schooling if they wish (with some consultation with schools about how the parents will manage this). Then people who can't manage this at home can send their kids into safer schools and there might be some leeway to make school conditions safer esp for vulnerable teachers.

Some resources to make things safer in state schools would be good. e.g. allowing use of community buildings, getting in appropriate people to act as TAs.

This is so obviously the right thing to do. I can only assume that the reason Boris has blanked union letters is because he knows it too. Money above lives. Even to the point of not offering choice as it would have risked the whole schools are safe, we are aceing the fight against covid narrative.

@PleasantVille

Schools in my area have been back for 2 weeks, not a single one has closed

Of course there are cases in schools no one with any sense could have expected otherwise, the virus isn't going anywhere soon we live with it like the rest of the world does

I would really love to know if other countries spend so much time doom mongering and in a state of constant negativity or do they adopt a sensible stance and get on with live in a new way.

You seem to be almost gleeful that you think you're right even though anyone could have made a stab that hundreds of school might have had 1 positive test. There are millions of school age children and a tiny number of positive tests

I think they adopt a more sensible stance - I read yesterday that France was even considering paying people to home school (can someone confirm I didn’t dream that please!). It’s a horrible thought but things need to change and the more noise and the more people that vote with their feet the quicker it will happen. Boris will keep saving money for as long as we can. We need a sustainable provision for all those children and families that without a doubt need school.

@PleasantVille

Not gleeful and hoped that I was wrong but just saying where things seem to be heading and how many had hoped for better prevention to avoid this.

And please don’t be relaxed by the number of positive tests. People can’t get tests. It’s a shambles.

I would hope that schools would not close down again.

It should absolutely be the last resort.

However, the attitude on here to the Rule of 6 and why can their kids go to school but they can't meet groups bigger than 6, makes me think the recent measure will have very limited impact.

Everyone seems to be doing their own risk assessments and think they know better than Witty et al.

So it seems schools / education is not a priority on Mumsnet.........