Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

At work it definitely feels like March again, we were saying that yesterday: waiting for the axe to fall.

I feel the same waiting for the axe to fall. I was hoping September would be ok before things started to change in October. It could be a very long winter

Remember we were taking no proper precautions against covid in March - it was spreading through our communities unabated. No social distancing, social restrictions, increased hygiene (apart from hand washing), masks. We had no effective treatments (and often treated it incorrectly) and only tested the sickest sufferers. The rise in cases is really worrying, no doubt about that, but we are not where we were in the build up to March.

It is rarely a good idea to extend exponential growth far into the future, if you carried it on past October you would find that soon more than the entire population had Covid. The truth is that no one knows for sure how cases will grow but you can be sure the nations epidemiologists are trying to work it out.

My guess is that we will follow France or Spain who are ahead of us (again). I would take a look at them for two possible futures.

@IncidentsandAccidents

Remember we were taking no proper precautions against covid in March - it was spreading through our communities unabated. No social distancing, social restrictions, increased hygiene (apart from hand washing), masks. We had no effective treatments (and often treated it incorrectly) and only tested the sickest sufferers. The rise in cases is really worrying, no doubt about that, but we are not where we were in the build up to March.

I think you are right in that the death rate is likely to be lower this time around due to better treatments and possibly more shielding of the most vulnerable.

However the growth in cases I have listed above is based on the curent r value which takes into account all of our current social distancing measures and mask wearing. We are also going into winter which will have a negative impact on transmission as more people will be indoors.

@Peony9876 - yes - I am very concerned.

I work in a hospital (not on a Covid ward) but there has been a significant number of our patients and staff affected.

Remember we were taking no proper precautions against covid in March - it was spreading through our communities unabated.

Which is why cases doubled every 3 days back then not every 7 as now. If this trend continues test and trace will fail completely and probably end up having restrictions on eligibility again, more and more restrictions will be put in place on working hours etc.

Lots of people think we should stop cowering in fear and get back to normal and will only make it worse. I suppose most people might get more cautious again if the cases get large enough and hospitalisations start to rise so it may slow down eventually.

I doubt it will be as bad as April but lots of people and workplaces are getting pretty lax at the moment.

I feel like the government is not doing enough to track and trace community cases.

In our area GPs and district nurses STILL do not have access to covid swabs to test people in the community.

Someone somewhere must surely have enough common sense to see that GPs must surely play a role in this!!

too many surelys there!!

@Peony9876 the difference is that we didn't know how quickly the outbreak was growing in the build up to March or which areas were most affected. We barely changed our behaviour at all. At least we have more forewarning now and can hopefully be more responsive. Completely agree that cases will rise a lot over the coming weeks though.

@notevenat20

It is rarely a good idea to extend exponential growth far into the future, if you carried it on past October you would find that soon more than the entire population had Covid. The truth is that no one knows for sure how cases will grow but you can be sure the nations epidemiologists are trying to work it out.

My guess is that we will follow France or Spain who are ahead of us (again). I would take a look at them for two possible futures.

I agree. Looking at worldometer projections for Spain the researchers model 2 scenarios.

The red red line shows cases peaking at 280k per day in December without any further mandates. I assume this is some form of herd immunity at this point. The purple line assumes lockdown if daily deaths reach 8 per million. This means the exponential growth is curbed with cases at around 55k per day.

The graphs for the UK show a peak that is much later with around 60k cases per day in January and still rising.

I'm already feeling schools are the very worst place to have anything to do with. All we have is social distancing and schools have none.

It feels just like Feb/Mar to me too - the government too slow when everyone can see direction of travel.

Yes, working in a school is increasing my anxiety. I try not to feed it but it is there in the background, ramping up.

@Bmidreams

Yes, working in a school is increasing my anxiety. I try not to feed it but it is there in the background, ramping up.

Definitely agree. No SD, poor hygiene, no masks, poor ventilation. Very worried.

I'm wondering if it is wise to keep sending my children really. I knew this feeling would come but I thought it'd be a bit further into term!

It is possible to change the rate. Look at Belgium.

We can learn from that

I’ve been amazed by the lack of any social distancing in my school. The bubbles are well organised but the staff mixing between them and gathering in locked rooms for meetings with no masks, it’s a joke.

@Happymum12345

I’ve been amazed by the lack of any social distancing in my school. The bubbles are well organised but the staff mixing between them and gathering in locked rooms for meetings with no masks, it’s a joke.

Do you work there or have student there?

That is very poor practise.

@MarshaBradyo pretty common practice as far as I know tbh

@MarshaBradyo A younger member of staff chatted to me on break duty the other day (I stood a good distance from him) telling me it's ok to still have all the staff go to the pub together because we are a 'workplace bubble'🤦‍♀️

If things continue on the current trajectory with no chance in behaviour then yes.... Despite people’s weariness and protestations over the rule of six, I think enough people’s behaviour will change sufficiently before we get to that point.

There is no social distancing in UK state schools. The pupils are seated normally in classes and there is contact between classes during non lesson periods.

Staff are not distancing from pupils from my observation, and no doubt not from each other universally.

The US peaked at 75k cases in a day. Is it realistic to think 100 or more than 250 thousand cases per day in the UK or Spain? I mean, yes if you extrapolate the numbers of continued exponential growth indefinitely, but that doesn't seem to be how this virus behaves.

Yes, I think the 'second wave' was always said to be slower or less dramatic wasn't it.

(Just as an FYI you have two 9 Octs in your rates - just meaning mid-October is 113,248 rather than 226,496. Not that number makes it all fine!)

Would the death rates be lower with a resurgence of cases? The expected death rate is a percentage, approximately, of total cases that need hospital treatment.

The death rate goes up more because more if the hospitals are overwhelmed. Because they, can't intervene those who need intervention.

Though I suppose if the resurgence of cases in within a different dynamic there will be fewer people needing treatment. This would take those that are vulnerable distancing themselves from that dynamic.

@ChanceChanceChance

There is no social distancing in UK state schools. The pupils are seated normally in classes and there is contact between classes during non lesson periods.

Staff are not distancing from pupils from my observation, and no doubt not from each other universally.

I am trying to distance from them but it's pretty near impossible... however I am staying in our demarcation lines but there are staff who are not (despite repeatedly being told to) and some staff close windows and doors (as do the kids).