Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

@SarahMused

We are finding a much higher percentage of cases than we were in March and April. Some of the testing is occurring in targeted areas where they are going door to door testing everyone so you can’t extrapolate a nationwide prevalence from these figures. The ONS do a survey www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11september2020 which currently estimates that 1/1400 have the virus. They believe the infection rate amongst young people (not school children) has gone up recently but encouragingly the number of over 50’s with it is dropping which is a good thing for hospital admissions and deaths.

Ah. Apparently the infection rate appears to be going up in the over 50s (if you can't see the small print the top 4 lines are not over 50s, but all the lines, depicting different age groups, are showing an upward trend in this graph.)

Article here

" It won't just be a better system run by superior Scottish people."

Might be based on local teams instead of a centrally based system built on cosy commercial contracts....

@Friendsoftheearth

I think that's two quite strange personal interpretations of me from you. I find it a bit odd you've searched my posting history tbh.

I am hardly hiding that I feel the covid handling has been very poor and I am worried about schools. That's how I see things, others see things differently.

It's getting very, very boring hearing people suggest that the most vulnerable should just shield or take precautions. They are literally not allowed to. Have to go back to work, have to go back to school. FGS, have some empathy.

@walksen

" It won't just be a better system run by superior Scottish people."

Might be based on local teams instead of a centrally based system built on cosy commercial contracts....

Yes, basically it is this I believe, the resources are in local authorities instead of centralised. There is a lot of expertise and some actual knocking on doors in hard to reach cases.

The size of population shouldn't matter, if broken down into sub areas, as with any complex service.

@Danglingmod

And imo vulnerable people should not be back at work and school if they don’t want to be.

It would make far more sense to give each vulnerable person an individual risk assessment and then allow them to shield if they wish to. The government should pay their salaries (as well as anyone they live with) and make sure things like food deliveries are provided effectively.

That would be far better than lockdown his all down even though the vast majority of us are at zero or very little risk.

The biggest problem is the lack of tests right now- I have someone elderly in my family who has symptoms and they can't get a test, trying hourly on the website, so they could have spread it to us a day or two ago and we simply won't know and will go to work and school on Monday like we have to! They are not in our household and we have no symptoms ourselves. So, no justification for all sitting in.

The problems with track and trace and with testing capacity are totally undercutting our efforts to get on top of this virus before winter starts...

@Friendsoftheearth

monkey why not leave your teaching post and take up on line tutoring for now, and if and when the pandemic dies down you can rejoin? If I had a severely disabled child I would be looking at all the options now. It must be a huge worry for you.

Because both DH and I would have to do it... Also the market is awash with teachers doing this. I think some difficult decisions will have to be made though.

For people who think we are bed some perspective...
Berlin 303 per 100,000
Bavaria Germany 453 per 100,000

Birmingham hot spot central 85 per 100,000

It's so hard isn't it. We have to take personal responsibility regarding Covid, plus personal responsibility to support ourselves and keep the bills paid and the economy going even when it's often a complete no win conflict of interests. The vulnerable are between a rock and a hard place especially as mentioned upthread, and the rest of us are constantly worried about passing it on to them ....... it is quite mentally exhausting.

And I'm starting to get the rage every time someone says well if we "just" do as we're told things will improve as it is becoming quite clear that even that can be a very unpredictable minefield.

Before we think about moon shots and vaccines, and saliva tests just actually accessing the tests that are currently available is vital. That's what the first priority should be. And BJ waffles on about how hard the testing staff are working (and I really dont doubt it) but the reality is there are either not enough tests or the system for allocating them is not fit for purpose (or possibly both!)
Our local councillor has said you and family must isolate for 14 days if anyone in your household shows symptoms of coronavirus. (This is the same advice given in March when community testing wasnt available at all ) The symptoms are fairly generic of many winter illnesses and bugs, while we shouldn't go around coughing and sneezing in peoples faces at any time, there are very few parents who would normally keep a child and their sibling(s) off school for 2 weeks for a cold, and take time off work (not everyone IRL can WFH) each time.
We need the tests to be working so that those who are infectious with covid can isolate and everyone else can judge if they are fit to work (or go to school) once symptoms are not at their peak.

monkey you are both professionals, I think you could find alternatives. Many children are being homeschooled, so there might be greater demand, and or GCSE children catching up with so many lost months.

Given your situation, I would be looking to do almost anything else in the short term if you feel it will impact your child to such a degree. I am assume he is not in school himself? If it is any comfort we have barely seen any fatalities in children regardless of their risk factors, they seem to be overcoming this virus in all cases.

Estimated UK infections vs confirmed cases: ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-new-estimated-infections-of-covid-19?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&year=latest&country=~GBR&region=World

For March to May:
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-new-estimated-infections-of-covid-19?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&year=latest&time=2020-03-01..2020-06-01&country=~GBR&region=World

Except for one or two cases, it has been better than expected with children of all risk factors.

Thanks new that is a very helpful comparison

Agree with everything you said @Stinkyguineapig. I had a nightmare of a time trying to get hold of a test and the walk in centres wouldnt accept anyone with symptoms. In the end, I got one through an extremely lucky and unconventional method.

Matt Hancock and co didn't increase the number of tests in readiness for people returning to school/college/Uni/work etc. This is solely at their doorstep.

@Friendsoftheearth DC is at special school.

I havent read all the thread so apologies if this has already been said.

We are prepared this time (within reason). We werent prepared back in march.

Hospitals, emergency plans, staffing, ppe, face masks for the public, hand gel, handwashing, people being more mindful....

Its certainly not perfect but this time we have a heads up.

If anything i have a couple packs of loo roll in house😁🤪

Although at the moment I am considering asking the care home to take DC out of school.

'Yes, basically it is this I believe, the resources are in local authorities instead of centralised.'

Ah I see. Can you link it though? I'm not saying I don't believe you obviously, I just haven't seen a 90% contact success rate anywhere. I'd be interested to read more.

'some actual knocking on doors in hard to reach cases.'

Again though, surely easier in a little village in the highlands as opposed to the middle of Birmingham?! It's demographics not the system.

I'm concerned personally but hopeful on a population level.

There is some immunity out there now. Plus a heartening chunk of the population seems already to have the ability to shrug it off.

So I'm expecting to get it as my family are working or at school. But I'll be endeavouring to not pass anything on. I'm keeping away from my older relatives and keeping my distance in public anyway.

Can I just say, Wales’ track and trace system seems similar to Scotland and is achieving similar numbers, England is the outlier here. I’m pretty sure the Welsh system is localised.

"Again though, surely easier in a little village in the highlands as opposed to the middle of Birmingham?! It's demographics not the system."

Stats and articles that local councils in Blackburn and Oldham etc have traced 90% of cases passed on to them Vs 50 to 60% for (serco is it) are widely available which is why some councils in greater Manchester set up their own team and have been appealing to the government to support local teams with local knowledge so it isn't true. Plus lots of the outbreaks in Scotland were in Glasgow and Aberdeen not little villages.

Wales has also got 90% rates because they also went with local teams.

It’s a shame local councils aren’t being used

I do think that should change

@NewAutumnName

For people who think we are bed some perspective... Berlin 303 per 100,000 Bavaria Germany 453 per 100,000

Birmingham hot spot central 85 per 100,000

That’s the total number of cases per 100,000 people, in those cities. The 85 for Birmingham is the last seven days

Germany’s seven day case rate currently stands at 11.9 / 100,000.