Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

Remember though in March we were only testing the worst cases (didn't you have to be in hospital to get a test?). So the true number would have been much higher. We can only really say we're level with where we were in March (as far as case numbers go) if (let's hope not when) hospital admissions reach similar levels. That doesn't negate that levels are increasing again though.

" but there are staff who are not (despite repeatedly being told to) and some staff close windows and doors (as do the kids)"

Lots of people on here think that
It's no more serious than the flu
We should learn to live with it like other diseases
The UK is now akin to a police state
You should do your own risk assessment
Want to show they are not sheeple or cowering in fear etc

Most likely a fair few teachers think the same

They may be resigned to catching it anyway. Certainly it is impossible to follow the guidance and keep 2m away most of your day anyway so you might get desensitised to the 2m when you can't do it in class or corridors and people constantly coming right up to you.

I mean the same amount of work needs to be done but you don't get longer to move between lessons or staff meetings so how can you socially distance while doing this? Teachers said along the guidance was only lip service to safety after all.

That is why we have to really start to apply restrictions now. It will be too late in 2-3 weeks time. The government has a stark choice, the Sweden model of keeping everything open and the vulnerable/elderly shielded and the let the virus takes its course, or a more stricter approach.

Israel is now the first country to go into a second lockdown, others in Europe won't be far behind - France's infection rate is now too high.

I would anticipate a nationwide lockdown from mid October to end December - release people for Christmas then hope they don’t have to do it again Jan-March!

Sadly despite all their bright ideas the delivery has been really poor overall and no reason why that should improve (I think the moonshot stuff is theoretically a great idea if they can stop bloody focusing on using it to get people back to football stadiums, but I don’t seem them being able to do it properly)

@HappyBdayWilson

Remember though in March we were only testing the worst cases (didn't you have to be in hospital to get a test?). So the true number would have been much higher. We can only really say we're level with where we were in March (as far as case numbers go) if (let's hope not when) hospital admissions reach similar levels. That doesn't negate that levels are increasing again though.

Case/test numbers in March were around 5000 a day though. The 100,000 is the estimate of the true number.

We are seeing such a varied level in different areas that it feels like another stage of pandemic

Monkey that’s really tough, maybe the science / head teacher should do a very simple briefing on why (over zoom). Or perhaps they have already.

There is no social distancing in UK state schools. The pupils are seated normally in classes and there is contact between classes during non lesson periods.

DS Y10 has been back 6 days and to begin it was one way system. Now it's a free for all because none of the kids followed the rules. They are contained to one building per year group and have allocated outside areas so no year groups mix. But 150 kids per year is still a lot. The school bus is rammed as usual and at least half don't wear a mask. Luckily we take him.

I can't see how schools are not going to close and go to online learning.

Ah thanks @Peony9876, I didn't realise/read it properly 🤦‍♀️. It's early

@MiniMaxi

I would anticipate a nationwide lockdown from mid October to end December - release people for Christmas then hope they don’t have to do it again Jan-March!

Sadly despite all their bright ideas the delivery has been really poor overall and no reason why that should improve (I think the moonshot stuff is theoretically a great idea if they can stop bloody focusing on using it to get people back to football stadiums, but I don’t seem them being able to do it properly)

The country can't afford a 2nd lockdown though. I think we are more likely to see restrictions like

• no visiting other houses
• possibly not travelling outwith your local area (unless for work)
• here in Scotland "blended learning" eg part time school

Some close windows and doors...haven’t even got to winter yet but staff and children are no doubt cold! Or the wind blowing work around. This happened to my DS back in June/July.

Again the government are too slow to act cases are going up so be proactive instead of reactive. I think they should be:

1.Curfew for pubs/restaurants country wide, everyone entering them must leave contact details not just the main person in a bubble,

1. The group of no more than 6 should be extended to everything, with only work and school the exception. Not only does this make it simple the number of contacts will be reduced. Eg gym classes 6 rather than the 18 at the moment, football training no more these 6, rather than 22

This should be monitored and further restrictions added if it doesn’t work.

On separate point about no tests available is it the fact the labs aren’t able to process them rather than no tests available? If this is the case footballers are having regular tests which yes are paid for but which labs are processing those? Surely it’s not just footballers having regular tests that are private media said Ant and Dec will have regular tests too. Maybe the labs should stop processing these “unnecessary” tests and concentration on the wider population.

@walksen yes indeed.

@CKBJ yes but they can put their blazers on.. diluting potential virus is my only aim when I get in a classroom to perform my babysitting duties...

I'm already feeling schools are the very worst place to have anything to do with. All we have is social distancing and schools have none.

It feels just like Feb/Mar to me too - the government too slow when everyone can see direction of travel.

Agree with all of this. Take my kids and I (single parent) as an example - we were at home during lockdown, some contact with a small number of other people. In the space of a few weeks my three dc have gone back to secondary school. They report that some systems have been put in place but that there is no social distancing really. The youngest said yesterday that due to their one way system there is a staircase that everyone is trying to get down at the same time at some point and not only are they crammed together, she said she shoved her way into the crowd to get down. (Am going to email the school about this - it wasn’t even one year group it was different year groups mixed together.)

At the same time I have started work in a different secondary school and again systems have been put in place and it is smaller so easier, but while no one is hugging, people are a normal pre pandemic distance apart, classes of thirty in one room, kids having lunch at long tables not far apart from each other, adults having contact with lots of kids, lots of other adults. Maybe about a metre apart but lots of different people.

So just in our household we have gone from contact with practically no one to contact with hundreds. Multiply that over many households. And the R rate in London where we live is 1.3 apparently.

It does feel like the calm bit of the tsunami when I everyone looks at the waves pulling back.

The government has a stark choice, the Sweden model of keeping everything open and the vulnerable/elderly shielded and the let the virus takes its course

That’s not really Sweden’s approach. Sweden has
never been “protect the vulnerable but everything else is completely normal” as some with agendas try to portray it.

We can't compare numbers with March. Back in March we were only testing very serious cases. One of my friends caught Covid and was quite ill. He was tested and was positive. His wife had exactly the same symptoms, as did their 20 year old daughter. But they weren't eligible for tests. So almost certainly all 3 of them had it, but only 1 would have shown up in the data.

Having said that, I think the government has to take stronger action to try to contain the virus.

(Should add that due to the rule of 6 my school have cancelled open evenings which they will now do virtually, and have also cancelled twilight sessions so that’s something I suppose. Doesn’t change the fact that apart from masks and good social distancing on the tube, the rest or our day seems to be entirely as it was pre-pandemic.)

Spain has started to see an increase in cases requiring hospitalisation . I expect that countries with rising cases will see the same.

This shouldnt come as a surprise, while most of the new cases will have relatively mild symptoms which dont need medical intervention just a few days in bed, there will be people who get much sicker.

The person with mild symptoms resting up in bed may have more vulnerable relatives living with or visiting them. Those people may be exposed to a heavier viral load by being in close confines with a person who is unwell.

@HappyBdayWilson

Remember though in March we were only testing the worst cases (didn't you have to be in hospital to get a test?). So the true number would have been much higher. We can only really say we're level with where we were in March (as far as case numbers go) if (let's hope not when) hospital admissions reach similar levels. That doesn't negate that levels are increasing again though.

This is true. On the highest day (5k positive tests) they estimated 100k new cases.

Even if we think testing picks up one third (often cited due to asymptomatic etc) we are looking at under 12k yesterday?

But we are at serious risk of rapid escalation, because we don't have test, trace or isolate in place.

It does feel like the calm bit of the tsunami when I everyone looks at the waves pulling back.

This is exactly how I feel.

Once deaths start to rise again public behaviour will change. Many people were changing their behaviour before lockdown was imposed. Those who wish to deny the virus exists are more likely to have had had it already or to get it soon. Hopefully they are then less likely to spread it. So growth will be slower than last time round when we were already in the worst part of winter.

The fines need to be increased and more often enforced.

I dont expect deaths to rise as quickly with better treatments. If the government would start more actively promoting vitamin D supplementation that might also help. We are approaching the time (October through to March) when everyone in the uk should be supplementing with vitamin D. Please help spread that message and start your elderly relatives or anyone with dark skin on it now.

If we follow new restrictions we have a chance of tracking Belgium not Spain

The noise on here re not following them is too much. But hopefully majority will stick to what’s legal.

I’m in a primary school. I’m supposed to stay 2m away from children but with 28 in one room plus 2 staff, sometimes 3 and year 1, it’s extremely hard. 3 have gone off over the week with colds and coughs. I feel unprotected.

Having spent a week mingling with 90 children ( I work across all bubbles)it seems bizarre to put a mask on to go into a near empty supermarket!

@Benjispruce2

I’m in a primary school. I’m supposed to stay 2m away from children but with 28 in one room plus 2 staff, sometimes 3 and year 1, it’s extremely hard. 3 have gone off over the week with colds and coughs. I feel unprotected.

I'm sorry to say I believe you are unprotected. We all are. All our children are completely unprotected.

@Friendsoftheearth

That is why we have to really start to apply restrictions now. It will be too late in 2-3 weeks time. The government has a stark choice, the Sweden model of keeping everything open and the vulnerable/elderly shielded and the let the virus takes its course, or a more stricter approach.

Israel is now the first country to go into a second lockdown, others in Europe won't be far behind - France's infection rate is now too high.

Sweden please