Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

'Sit near a superspreader for long enough and you will be exposed. House, restaurant, bar, workplace - any indoor setting.'

The risk is less. Barring full lockdown what would you suggest? You are less likely to catch it if people socially distance when out. People don't sit 2m apart in a ventilated area if they have a house party. Bring on the marshals I say to assist those permanently confused by it all.

'feel increasingly hopeless today. UK is dealing with this all wrong AGAIN.'

What should they do? All 4 nations have similar restrictions in place.

@GetOffYourHighHorse

'feel increasingly hopeless today. UK is dealing with this all wrong AGAIN.'

What should they do? All 4 nations have similar restrictions in place.

I said UK, that covers the four nations. I meant UK response is weak compared to e.g. Germany

• class sizes too large so crowded
• mask wearing too limited both at school and in wider society
• testing too few symptoms - but of course no capacity to test more
• tracing is absolute garbage. Absolute garbage.
• isolation not happening due to extremely low sick pay in UK

All could be improved, if the government gave a shite. The hardest is testing capacity. Everything else is actually fixable.

I am becoming increasingly worried and like others, waiting for the axe to fall...although I'm 99% sure there won't be another national lockdown, it would completely destroy the economy and lives. Also Boris said that another lockdown would be 'the nuclear option' - but can't trust anything he says.

Soo...what's the solution? Close schools again, close restaurants again, close shops again and sit home in a hazmat suit until...when exactly? I'm a bit perplexed as to what it is you want to happen?
Half my friends have been made redundant ( in middle age) half the high street shops are gone, no one is getting on buses, so goodbye public transport in most places outside of London ( they need passengers) goodbye theatre, goodbye cinema (hey, we have Netflix right?) The country is on its knees. What we are doing ( distancing, masks, extra cleaning) is what we can reasonably do.

I can't believe people are actually saying "bring on the Marshalls"

@HepzibahGreen

I can't believe people are actually saying "bring on the Marshalls"

Not really surprising when there were idiots on here wanting martial law back in March. Clamouring to have more and more liberties taken away. Baffling.

Contact tracing in Scotland seems pretty good actually @ChanceChanceChance.

I agree we need proper isolation pay. Masks though you need to wear in all enclosed indoor spaces except classrooms and sitting at a table to eat or drink in a restaurant. What exactly do you want and what difference will it make?

At the end of the day we’ve got what we’ve got. Pipe dreams of what you think should happen are just pointless.

@ChanceChanceChance totally agree.

chance schools will only close as a very very last resort after everything else has closed. Even then it will be at local level.

@Friendsoftheearth

That is why we have to really start to apply restrictions now. It will be too late in 2-3 weeks time. The government has a stark choice, the Sweden model of keeping everything open and the vulnerable/elderly shielded and the let the virus takes its course, or a more stricter approach.

Israel is now the first country to go into a second lockdown, others in Europe won't be far behind - France's infection rate is now too high.

That should read ' the Sweden model of keeping everything open and the elderly/ vulnerable sacrificed.

While I don't think Sweden have made the ' wrong' choice necessarily. It may turn out to have been right though I personally don't agree with it . Even if you agree with them, you should be clear eyed and honest about the cost. Noone could possibly argue that Sweden has protected their elderly .

I don't think we are going back to March, whatever happens. We can not afford to shut down the economy again - it really is as simple as that.

Schools have the benefit of holidays, so there will be natural break in the cycle. A chance to deep clean etc and to reset.

Industry will carry on as before.

As a last resort all restaurants will be take away only, and pubs closed. Shops will remain open, as will everything else. I know lots on here are hankering after another national lockdown and a paid holiday, but it isn't going to happen. The piggy bank is empty. We are going to have to grit our teeth this winter and get on with it.

Cases are going to jump heavily because of schools, universities, colleges opening up and 'get back to the office', all after the hordes have returned from foreign holidays and ignored quarantine guidance (or been to house parties/raves etc).

A difference to March is all the things that are shut down now. Sporting events, gigs, nightclubs. Plus offices, the tube and trains are still quieter (these are huge spreaders).

Also, the fact so many have had it already reduces exponential growth as it was in March.

@annabel85

Cases are going to jump heavily because of schools, universities, colleges opening up and 'get back to the office', all after the hordes have returned from foreign holidays and ignored quarantine guidance (or been to house parties/raves etc).

A difference to March is all the things that are shut down now. Sporting events, gigs, nightclubs. Plus offices, the tube and trains are still quieter (these are huge spreaders).

Also, the fact so many have had it already reduces exponential growth as it was in March.

And hopefully care homes will be protected this time.

@Friendsoftheearth

chance schools will only close as a very very last resort after everything else has closed. Even then it will be at local level.

Yes possibly, but I do not understand why so many parents are ok with this.

I had a tour of my child's school.

It is clear a virus spreading heaven.

I am not ok with that

I'm in Belgium. No push to get back to the office. Masks have to been worn everywhere with fines for not doing so. This includes secondary kids who have to wear them all day in class. We are limited to seeing 5 people. The same 5 people. Numbers are till going up - I saw something this morning that said they had doubled since last week. I am quite alarmed to be fair. But at least you can get tested easily and quickly here.

Shielding will have to resume at some point. I wonder if they've set a notional daily case rate that will trigger that? Or other measures?
Clear information about that, in the same way they have set a number for removal from the air corridors would be good.

Well take them out of school then. The virus isn’t going anywhere regardless of what measures are taken, that much is now clear.

bumbling Sweden have been completely honest about their failure when it comes to the elderly. Without a doubt that was one part of the plan that did not go well, but most stand by the decisions made otherwise. Their rates are going down, and they have never closed down any part of the country at any time.

Logistically it is easier there, with so much space outside the cities it is easy to distance, and the national psyche is suited to periods of hibernation. The long winters there can prepare anyone for a pandemic stint. They also have a gritty, down to earth character that is really resilient, without losing their empathy or compassion. I have spent many years there, and was married in northern Sweden and it is a country that will cope with anything.
Not speaking for the whole country, however as whole they tend to enjoy solitude and are by their very nature more reserved than southern Europe which helps.

This time around they will put in place measures to protect care homes properly, and everyone has recognised the need to shield the elderly and vulnerable - on the whole I admire the way Sweden has dealt with covid (but obviously I accept I am a little biased because of my connections)

Would it work here? I am not sure. I would hope so, but I think each country needs to be responsive to its own population, and national characteristics. It is not a one size fits all.

Again @ChanceChanceChance I am not sure what you actually expect can happen. Kids need to go to school. They are at low risk of harm from the virus. It’s more damaging to most kids to be out of school than the harms from the virus. I’d have preferred them to be in part time at least to see how it all went but to be honest given kids won’t SD I doubt it would have been much better than them being fully open.

Well take them out of school then

Really insightful contribution, first time this has been suggested.

Soo...what's the solution? Close schools again, close restaurants again, close shops again and sit home in a hazmat suit until...when exactly?

Stopping anyone from going to anyone else's house seems like a powerful first move.

@ChanceChanceChance

Well take them out of school then

Really insightful contribution, first time this has been suggested.

But as above, what else do you expect?

There’s an infectious virus in circulation not going anywhere. This will be the case whether schools are open full or part time. It doesn’t mean kids don’t need to go to school.

Yes possibly, but I do not understand why so many parents are ok with this

Perhaps because there is no actual risk to children from covid? Most parents are completely fine with it for that reason. Sensible parents are keeping their children where possible away from elderly relatives and are getting on with it. Given the virus could be here forever, the quicker we get used to living with it the better. I am totally relaxed as far as my children are concerned. I am however taking care not to see anyone older whilst we are at school.

@IncidentsandAccidents

Remember we were taking no proper precautions against covid in March - it was spreading through our communities unabated. No social distancing, social restrictions, increased hygiene (apart from hand washing), masks. We had no effective treatments (and often treated it incorrectly) and only tested the sickest sufferers. The rise in cases is really worrying, no doubt about that, but we are not where we were in the build up to March.

I agree with this. Also, when you take the fact that Covid has been circulating in Europe undetected since the end of last year, and it took months and months to get to lockdown levels, it’s hard to see how we could ever end up with the same figures as we had in March. I think we might be seeing the same media behaviour now that we saw back in March - Scare people in to compliance. Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing - many people won’t comply with rules out of a sense of duty. The masses need to be terrified in to submission. Which, in itself, will also contribute to driving the numbers back down again.

So, while I don’t agree with the content of this type of article, I am actually glad that it has been printed.
Weird paradox, huh?