Page 4 | Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

Peony9876 · 2020-09-12T03:56:04+00:00

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days? [[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html]] By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day. If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have 11th sept 3539 cases a day 18th sept 7078 cases a day 25th sept 14156 cases a day 2nd oct 28312 cases a day 9th oct 56624 cases a day 9th oct 113248 cases a day 16th oct 226496 cases a day 23rd oct 452992 cases a day Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October? This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread. [[https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19]]

ChanceChanceChance · 12/09/2020 08:26

@Piggywaspushed

You do realise that is one school right polly and may be at the better end of things?

Also hand washing is pretty low impact, tbh, if there is no social distancing.

Hand washing won't help if you are touching the person or sharing breath.

Morfin · 12/09/2020 08:27

@PollyPelargonium52

I don't know why somebody states there is no hygiene in schools. There is plenty of handgel where ds goes to and they are made to do this every lesson. The toilets are kept spotless and are newbuild anyway. Two lessons per day and no moving around from class to class.

Because that isn't the case everywhere?

SarahMused · 12/09/2020 08:27

We are finding a much higher percentage of cases than we were in March and April. Some of the testing is occurring in targeted areas where they are going door to door testing everyone so you can’t extrapolate a nationwide prevalence from these figures. The ONS do a survey www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11september2020 which currently estimates that 1/1400 have the virus. They believe the infection rate amongst young people (not school children) has gone up recently but encouragingly the number of over 50’s with it is dropping which is a good thing for hospital admissions and deaths.

Wemayhavemetbefore · 12/09/2020 08:29

Have Swedish universities and upper schools (15-18) now started up again? I read some time ago that that was the plan, but not sure whether it's happened?

And on a totally separate issue - what happened to the various Nightingale hospitals? Are they still there ready to go into action?

Anewuser · 12/09/2020 08:29

Shielding has been paused so that’s not going to help now.

Both myself and my teenager were shielding. I’m now back working with 60 young children so how long before I catch it or bring it back home? SD is impossible in primary school.

GravityFalls · 12/09/2020 08:33

How do people know the toilets in their DC’s schools are “spotless”? I work in a college and I have no idea what the student toilets are like. Parents aren’t allowed in schools right now and children are not very accurate reporters on the cleanliness of things, of which I have extensive experience!

MarshaBradyo · 12/09/2020 08:34

@Friendsoftheearth

derby There were big differences in the way Sweden managed the first wave. They kept restaurants and bars open, people continued to work and schools (in the main) remained open. The government's approach was to expect the population to do the right thing - socially distance, protect the elderly. They failed miserably in terms of care home restrictions, and lost many elderly people (and the confidence of some parts of the population) however the overall approach was one of learning to live with the virus, rather than fighting it with lockdowns etc.

Sweden and their national character differs from ours, I do agree with marsha that for us a middle ground is definitely best. Some proper restrictions respected and adhered to, a moderate approach and try to keep as much open as possible - reduce social contact as much as possible if we want to keep schools and services open.

Yep completely agree. Where we are now open school and services, but using socialisation measures, is about right.

BrieAndChilli · 12/09/2020 08:35

BUT

In March we were only testing people who were hospitalised/extremely ill.
Now we are testing everyone, even people with no symptoms really or symptoms that wouldn’t raise an eyebrow in normal times.
So in March that 100,000 was the worst cases, if we had tested everyone it probably would have been 500,000 or even more.
So I don’t think we can compare like for like as we are testing in a completely different way now. It would be better to compare death rates.

monkeytennis97 · 12/09/2020 08:35

By the way when I say I have proof they are of staff and communal areas.. God only knows what the kids' toilets look like

flowerycurtain · 12/09/2020 08:35

Ha! I didn't realise my own typo!!!!!!

It's not that ballet isn't safe. I'm sure the teacher had made it "Covid secure".

Maybe I'm being very negative but we had a family discussion. Our priorities have to be:

keeping our farm running (crops drilled and animals fed as absolute priority)
kids in school.

Anything we can do to lesson the Risk to enable those two things to happen we will do.

Dh has moved into our caravan so if we have to isolate for any reason he's not included.

We have asked our staff to be extra careful (within reason of course). They understand and are being great about it.

I feel like I did in MArch where things are beginning to spiral. If cases are still increasing next weeks we will seriously consider taking the kids out of school so that the farm has the most chance of surviving.

Wemayhavemetbefore · 12/09/2020 08:37

Yes anewuser - has there been any discussion of whether shielding should/will be reintroduced? (eg at the press conference - I didn't watch!) Has there been an assessment of its effectiveness, does anyone know?

monkeytennis97 · 12/09/2020 08:37

@BrieAndChilli

BUT

In March we were only testing people who were hospitalised/extremely ill.
Now we are testing everyone, even people with no symptoms really or symptoms that wouldn’t raise an eyebrow in normal times.
So in March that 100,000 was the worst cases, if we had tested everyone it probably would have been 500,000 or even more.
So I don’t think we can compare like for like as we are testing in a completely different way now. It would be better to compare death rates.

But we're not testing everyone.. people can't access tests.

Stinkyguineapig · 12/09/2020 08:39

Some friends I know (a couple with a young child) work in 2 London hospitals. One is a dr at one of the worst affected hospitals and was very unwell themselves with covid in April. They have been planning for a long time a 2nd wave in October.

jessstan2 · 12/09/2020 08:40

No because we are forever being told different things. Anyway, worrying will not help, let us live in the moment and enjoy the good weather while it lasts and think not of tomorrow, just like the lilies in the field and all that.

Piggywaspushed · 12/09/2020 08:46

wemay, I assume they will be.

Friendsoftheearth · 12/09/2020 08:50

marsha Agreed, because education and the future of the young is more important than general socialising at home. Children at school enjoy both socialisation AND an education has so many benefits to the child, society and the economy. It is a no brainer. Provided support bubbles continue, the elderly in the main should see more support than they had in the spring.

Surely if we can simply get a handle on the numbers now by limiting social contact, we do not need to move to the next set of restrictions which will see pubs and restaurants etc close again, along with the potential job losses that will cause.

Curtailing gatherings slightly does not to me seem like too much to ask at all given what we have to lose if we do nothing, and I think the gov and SAGE are spot on. I hope it works.

loulouljh · 12/09/2020 08:52

My kids are being plastered in hand sanitizer at school..crazy amounts. Hands sore and cracking. It is certainly being used in industrial quantities...

movingonup20 · 12/09/2020 08:58

If you look at the ons figures (which try to eliminate the effect of increased testing, localised outbreaks skewing figures) there's been a small rise. If people take note and modify behaviour now then in2-3 weeks the situation regarding infections will stabilise.

NHT32 · 12/09/2020 09:04

Spain’s figures seem to be going down again so it’s not working like that there. The last week they have been around the 4-5000 mark a day when a week or so ago they were up to 10,000. I may be wrong though but looking at the graphs it looks like it. Also how many people have already had this?

Jrobhatch29 · 12/09/2020 09:06

@loulouljh

My kids are being plastered in hand sanitizer at school..crazy amounts. Hands sore and cracking. It is certainly being used in industrial quantities...

Same here. My sons hands are red raw since he went back to school

MarshaBradyo · 12/09/2020 09:10

@loulouljh

My kids are being plastered in hand sanitizer at school..crazy amounts. Hands sore and cracking. It is certainly being used in industrial quantities...

Dc were wrecked by soap in March but hand gel seems better this term

Candyflosscookie · 12/09/2020 09:14

I'm saddened by the number of friends I have on FB who are posting photos of themselves and friends standing side by side, not adhering to any social distancing let alone 2 metres.

My friend and I went for a coffee catchup. First time since Feb. She's been shielding due to immune system issues and this was one of her very first trips out. We cleaned our hands and wore masks when not actually drinking our coffee and sat apart at a large table outside on a windy day.
Just as we were getting ready to leave, she asked for a photo so for just a few seconds we removed masks leant in towards each other, instant snap and done, back to distance.
If you had seen that snap on SM you might have made the wrong assumption about our meet-up.
It's worth considering your assumptions may be wrong.

Testingisajoke · 12/09/2020 09:15

@flowerycurtain

Ha! I didn't realise my own typo!!!!!!

It's not that ballet isn't safe. I'm sure the teacher had made it "Covid secure".

Maybe I'm being very negative but we had a family discussion. Our priorities have to be:

keeping our farm running (crops drilled and animals fed as absolute priority)
kids in school.

Anything we can do to lesson the Risk to enable those two things to happen we will do.

Dh has moved into our caravan so if we have to isolate for any reason he's not included.

We have asked our staff to be extra careful (within reason of course). They understand and are being great about it.

I feel like I did in MArch where things are beginning to spiral. If cases are still increasing next weeks we will seriously consider taking the kids out of school so that the farm has the most chance of surviving.

We are in a similar business, we've had to shut down the part that keeps everything afloat as staff have a cold (started with sore throat and runny nose) that has turned into a cold related cough. But it is persistent. No tests, been trying for days. Like you we have prepared so some parts of the business are still running but we money is going down the plug hole and no sign of getting a test for our staff.

NotAKaren · 12/09/2020 09:19

Schools can only do what they can within the limits. Parents also need to take responsibility, encouraging hand washing, ask questions about where teens are socialising, limit sleepovers, birthday parties and lots of people mixing in households as is just unnecessary contact that increases risk.

SecondAttempt · 12/09/2020 09:26

@BrieAndChilli

BUT

In March we were only testing people who were hospitalised/extremely ill.
Now we are testing everyone, even people with no symptoms really or symptoms that wouldn’t raise an eyebrow in normal times.
So in March that 100,000 was the worst cases, if we had tested everyone it probably would have been 500,000 or even more.
So I don’t think we can compare like for like as we are testing in a completely different way now. It would be better to compare death rates.

Agree with a PP

We are NOT testing everybody. I’ve spent hours trying to get a test over the past week. I haven’t been able to get one. I’m in Leeds, so in an area with rising cases.

You can see by all the posts on hear that this is happening across the country. Which means many potential cases are not being tested