Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

We are NOT testing everybody. I’ve spent hours trying to get a test over the past week. I haven’t been able to get one. I’m in Leeds, so in an area with rising cases.

You can see by all the posts on hear that this is happening across the country. Which means many potential cases are not being tested

Totally agree. One day there was no way to get a test in London. This is extremely concerning.

They've lost control imo.

You have to wonder if they are deliberately restricting testing. Less tests = Less cases

@loulouljh

My kids are being plastered in hand sanitizer at school..crazy amounts. Hands sore and cracking. It is certainly being used in industrial quantities...

Until it runs out... if it's that bad, take them out. It's one less for my colleagues or I to deal with

@NotAKaren

You have to wonder if they are deliberately restricting testing. Less tests = Less cases

I just think they are out of their depth.

It just feels like March again. When there were all these threads on Mumsnet about people being ill. But they couldn’t get tested. That time was because of the criteria - for example you could only get tested if you had returned from China. But it’s how it got out of control. Scary

I agree it feels like March again.

It doesn't feel like March to me, in the sense that I don't have the same levels of fear I had back then, we know what we are dealing with now, we know how to fix it. So we are not back in March in a literal sense, because we have treatments for covid that we did not have before, we are far better prepared in some ways.

But, I do feel a sense of we are on borrowed time. I want to see those that I may not see in a while, get the cupboards prepared, make sure we are ready should it happen. That kind of thing.

Wasn't the advice to stay home and isolate back in March / April if you had symptoms because widespread testing wasn't available? Not really a like for like comparison. Now we have social distancing, masks and most importantly widely accessible testing which gives access to metrics we didnt have back in March.

Remember we were taking no proper precautions against covid in March - it was spreading through our communities unabated. No social distancing, social restrictions, increased hygiene (apart from hand washing), masks

We have some of that but more and more aren’t bothering.

Likewise testing, many refuse to test their children and with added shortages I can’t imagine we have anywhere near actual numbers.

Add in schools with hundreds mixing with no SD and little mask wearing and then they all go home to family and social activities so spread range in enormous.

I agree that it seems likely the number of daily cases will go up before it goes down. But it's in all our hands to handle this. We just have to stop socialising, keep our distance, wash our hands, wear a mask properly and not break the law because the govt annoys us. No one else can fix it apart from us.

@ChanceChanceChance

I'm already feeling schools are the very worst place to have anything to do with. All we have is social distancing and schools have none.

It feels just like Feb/Mar to me too - the government too slow when everyone can see direction of travel.

The difference between the summer to now is schools.

Take away social distancing indoors and cases explode.

Back in March, we we’re already washing our hands and social distancing, we just didn’t call it that. We were told not to shake hands (part from BJ who is special). We were washing hands and singing happy birthday. We were told to stay home if we showed any symptoms.

The only difference now is that people are saying “Covid secure” but actually nothing has changed. And some people are wearing masks sometimes. Regarding my school and workplace, we are no safer now than in March- and actually in many ways less safe as the Covid measures have often had unintended side effects.

@FromEden

The US peaked at 75k cases in a day. Is it realistic to think 100 or more than 250 thousand cases per day in the UK or Spain? I mean, yes if you extrapolate the numbers of continued exponential growth indefinitely, but that doesn't seem to be how this virus behaves.

Well yes if you assume the death rate is 1% of total infections, the days we had 1000 deaths must have come from at least 100000 infections that likely occurred a few weeks before. If the death rate is lower (as I think is thought just now) and a lot of people were asymptomatic then it could even have been much higher.

Also without being able to get tested, people will go into “well it’s only a slightly raised temperature”, “it’s not a continuous cough”, I’m pretty sure it’s not Covid”, “I think it’s just a cold” and not isolate. The alternative is admitting the illness and all being stuck at home for 14, days regularly which isn’t sustainable for schools or workplaces.

But, I do feel a sense of we are on borrowed time. I want to see those that I may not see in a while, get the cupboards prepared, make sure we are ready should it happen. That kind of thing.

Yes, I feel like this too. I think social restrictions will ramp up quickly over the coming weeks and I'm preparing myself for that. My main priority is for the dc to keep going to school - I feel like I could cope with any other restrictions.

@NHT32

Spain’s figures seem to be going down again so it’s not working like that there. The last week they have been around the 4-5000 mark a day when a week or so ago they were up to 10,000. I may be wrong though but looking at the graphs it looks like it. Also how many people have already had this?

My mum lives in Spain, and masks are mandatory when you are outside your home (including in the street).

The US peaked at 75k cases in a day. Is it realistic to think 100 or more than 250 thousand cases per day in the UK or Spain?

They are confirmed cases, USA will have had far more cases than the confirmed ones, surely?

USA has done masses of testing.

It was obvious cases would increase as so much has opened up so quickly.

Actively encouraged o go out and socailise, shops open and everyone back to school.

10 day in of the school term and cases are rising. They are probably cases that we caught before the school's even opened.
I feel that the covid secure certificates are just a load of BS and give people a sense of security.

It's such mixed messages. govt
desperate to get people back into London commuting on public transport but you can:t meet with your friends.

You can sit in a Covid secure restaurant with 100 other people but you can't meet your friends.

Utter utter bullshit.

The absolute number of cases a day is not hugely helpful as it depends on the number of tests. But the growth in the number does tell us there is a problem which we have to fix.

You can sit in a Covid secure restaurant with 100 other people but you can't meet your friends. Utter utter bullshit

I can't believe that people still don't understand the basics! Even now!
You can sit in a restaurant and be socially distanced from others and still be safe. Meeting friends is totally different because most people forget about distance when with friends and family because they feel safe. So going to someone's home is going to be much more risky than sitting in a restaurant!

I really can't believe we are still having this conversation.

When I am with a friend, we sit closer together, we walk close together, I don't see her as a danger, and most of the time we fall into old habits.

When I am near a stranger, I remain very careful to be distant and minimise the contact as much as possible. I do not assume they are safe because I know them, and I take precautions.

For the last time. Please can we now understand why there is a very big difference between the two blank

Also I presume the more/ most vulnerable in society will protect themselves as everyone is more informed now so hopefully the NHS ITU will not be overwhelmed and hospitals can continue to treat Covid and non-covid patients, because if workplaces, schools and pubs are open the increase in A&E admissions through just life will mean a more complicated balancing for hospitals.

Full lockdown has been harsh on so many. If, although still pants, the rule of 6 means more jobs are saved, less isolation, loneliness and mental health deterioration, schools function and there is slightly more to do that go to the supermarket or chemist, well I am sure no one wants to go back to square one.

I am not a flag waver for this government but what can you do with a bunch of people going, I'll do what I like, some need to work don't get paid, and with the possibility that hospital beds could run out and there will be no ambulances for any patients come peak-winter. I think people forget ITU doctors were going to have to say "if I had the bed I could save this patient but I have to choose and this patient had a greater chance of survival". Would you like to make that choice, all shift, every shift at work? How about we try and not go back there and if seeing just 6 people at a time for a bit enables that it's not that much of a sacrifice.

@Friendsoftheearth

You can sit in a Covid secure restaurant with 100 other people but you can't meet your friends. Utter utter bullshit

I can't believe that people still don't understand the basics! Even now!
You can sit in a restaurant and be socially distanced from others and still be safe. Meeting friends is totally different because most people forget about distance when with friends and family because they feel safe. So going to someone's home is going to be much more risky than sitting in a restaurant!

I really can't believe we are still having this conversation.

When I am with a friend, we sit closer together, we walk close together, I don't see her as a danger, and most of the time we fall into old habits.

When I am near a stranger, I remain very careful to be distant and minimise the contact as much as possible. I do not assume they are safe because I know them, and I take precautions.

For the last time. Please can we now understand why there is a very big difference between the two blank

I really can't believe people fall for that

Have you never seen the superspreader reconstructions in restaurants and pubs? There's no such thing as a 'covid secure restaurant' apart from in people's heads.

Sit near a superspreader for long enough and you will be exposed. House, restaurant, bar, workplace - any indoor setting.

'It is possible to change the rate. Look at Belgium. We can learn from that'

But what about my civil liberties waaah!!! Don't give us inconvenient facts backing up the advice!

'You can sit in a Covid secure restaurant with 100 other people but you can't meet your friends. Utter utter bullshit'

'I can't believe that people still don't understand the basics! Even now! You can sit in a restaurant and be socially distanced from others and still be safe. Meeting friends is totally different because most people forget about distance when with friends and family because they feel safe. So going to someone's home is going to be much more risky than sitting in a restaurant! I really can't believe we are still having this conversation'

It's depressing isn't it. So many hapless people thundering about spreading the virus because they just don't understand the difference in risk between being 2m apart from strangers to being sat close to pals in their homes.

Don't get too excited by Belgium. There cases jumped 15% last week and they put all transmission down to school and work.

They have more stringent measures than the UK and expect class sizes are smaller.

I feel increasingly hopeless today. UK is dealing with this all wrong AGAIN.

There/their