Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

I dunno.. I agree with most of this about schools but do at least know they aren't allowing contacts sports (after ramming everyone together into a tiny unventilated changing room!0. In the community not only can my 16 year old DS train in in groups of over 6, he can now play football matches in a team of 11 against other 16-18 year olds he ahs never met before more than once a week. This seems ill advised. Professional footballers are routinely tested.

Apparently, football matches are 'covid secure'. I assume the same applies to rugby which has even more contact.

The public won't wear Sweden. It was a failed model.

So if yous at Sweden please, you are happy to have no school for 15- 18 year olds and universities closed?

Sweden behave differently to U.K. and other factors

We need some restrictions in place to get close to it (not complete lockdown but middle range)

I'm saddened by the number of friends I have on FB who are posting photos of themselves and friends standing side by side, not adhering to any social distancing let alone 2 metres.

@Piggywaspushed we've pulled ds out of football this weekend for that very reason.

Why oh why can't we be shitting down non essential stuff. Dd isn't going to ballet class at the moment as I think it's too risky. We watched 15 kids from 4 different schools of different ages go into the village hall yesterday.

Apparently, football matches are 'covid secure'. I assume the same applies to rugby which has even more contact.

If it is outdoors it probably is.

There probably hasn't been a single documentated case of on field transmission of covid during a match although I've not seen the times article on this yet!

Yes schools really are a weak link. We have hundreds of children, back to normal effectively. Very little social distancing is happening with our staff and only the three in my office are wearing masks.

Belgium are doing great, but a colleague there has said all students and staff are wearing masks in school, except in class. I'm sure that is helping and I wish they would bring that in hear to. There just isn't space in schools to social distance all the time between all staff yet that is the most important point, as students are in bubbles. Staff are supposed to social distance from each other.

[quote flowerycurtain]@Piggywaspushed we've pulled ds out of football this weekend for that very reason.

Why oh why can't we be shitting down non essential stuff. Dd isn't going to ballet class at the moment as I think it's too risky. We watched 15 kids from 4 different schools of different ages go into the village hall yesterday.

[/quote]
Anything that is paid for needs to stay open as furlough etc is ending

It’s a tough balance but it’s why we’re focussing on reducing private gatherings

[quote flowerycurtain]@Piggywaspushed we've pulled ds out of football this weekend for that very reason.

Why oh why can't we be shitting down non essential stuff. Dd isn't going to ballet class at the moment as I think it's too risky. We watched 15 kids from 4 different schools of different ages go into the village hall yesterday.

[/quote]
Love the 'shitting down'

Pop go all those mythical bubbles

Worldometer I take with a tub of salt because none of their doom mongering projections have ever even come close to being accurate.

I think a huge spike this month is inevitable, because of people going to university and schools reopening.

@Darker

I think a huge spike this month is inevitable, because of people going to university and schools reopening.

I agree. I feel so conflicted about school. I want my kids to go but in virus terms it's clearly a very bad idea.

Oh yes and for some reason they have made after school clubs like sport except. While some can social distance well, others can't. DD has been swimming all summer they have 4 per lane max, 2 at each end at lest 2 meters apart, no overtaking allowed and are very strick about it. Plus it seems quite safe with all that chlorine sloshing about. No changing rooms allowed, they are straight in and out have to wear masks pool side.

Things like football where they mix with others schools in large numbers seems such a bad idea. Even outside so DS isn't doing it this term. I'm unsure about cubs or scouts either as they don't have a big hall. Just a small hut, hoping they may just have outside meetings to start with. DD scout group is very small sometimes there would only be 6 of them with the leader so that mite not be a problem but cubs is a huge group. DS may have to miss it this term to.

If we follow new restrictions we have a chance of tracking Belgium not Spain

We don't seem to have learned anything from last spring.

These new so called restrictions will have zero affect, we are not following what Belgium is doing i.e. 1500 have been fined in Brussels for not wearing a mask, they also have airport testing.

No one will take any notice of these rules, they are unenforceable and like it or not, the Cummings effect is widespread.

Yet again Johnson has given advance notice of new rules, so human nature is to treat this w/e, with fine weather forecast, as party central..... even Sky News has just said, as its main headline "Enjoy it well you can...... as new restriction set to come in"

What's even more worrying is that people can not get a test. People can not afford to quarantine every time they get a cough (10 days for the sick person, 14 days for the family) quick testing is the only way people will comply. We've had to temporarily shut our business because of a cold which has turned into a continuous cough, I have lots of staff isolating and they can't get tests.

It greatly worries me that the nhs can’t cope with the flu season as it is. I don’t think they will cope with a spike in serious cases in October, even if it’s smaller than the 1st time round. It’s all very well having the nightingale hospitals, but the truth is they can’t staff them.

I work in a primary school, 3 adults in my class, I work between 2 classes, so 60 children. We are advised not to wear masks and if we must wear visors it's our own cost. We try to sd as much as we can, we sanitise all the time, cleaners are sanitising toilets, door handles etc at least 3 times a day. It's scary though and I've come down with a snotty cold, despite constantly sanitising.

derby There were big differences in the way Sweden managed the first wave. They kept restaurants and bars open, people continued to work and schools (in the main) remained open. The government's approach was to expect the population to do the right thing - socially distance, protect the elderly. They failed miserably in terms of care home restrictions, and lost many elderly people (and the confidence of some parts of the population) however the overall approach was one of learning to live with the virus, rather than fighting it with lockdowns etc.

Sweden and their national character differs from ours, I do agree with marsha that for us a middle ground is definitely best. Some proper restrictions respected and adhered to, a moderate approach and try to keep as much open as possible - reduce social contact as much as possible if we want to keep schools and services open.

Zoe app predicts that there were around 250,000 new cases a day at the peak in April. So about six weeks to get to that if cases rise as they have been in the last week.

Shitting down has amused me for the morning. I will instruct DS to have a good clear out!

I don't know why somebody states there is no hygiene in schools. There is plenty of handgel where ds goes to and they are made to do this every lesson. The toilets are kept spotless and are newbuild anyway. Two lessons per day and no moving around from class to class.

You do realise that is one school right polly and may be at the better end of things?

@PollyPelargonium52

I don't know why somebody states there is no hygiene in schools. There is plenty of handgel where ds goes to and they are made to do this every lesson. The toilets are kept spotless and are newbuild anyway. Two lessons per day and no moving around from class to class.

Because I am a teacher in a secondary school, I see it with my own eyes. I have photos as proof.

@flowerycurtain interesting comment about ballet class. My son returns in person today, the set up is fully social distanced, dancing in their own individual boxes. I feel much more comfortable he's at minimal risk compared to school where 30 are in a small room sat in twos.