Return to exponential growth means that cases will be at March levels of 100,000 a day by October

[Peony9876]

Is anyone else concerned that covid cases are now doubling every 7 to 8 days?
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-infections-england-cases-rise-covid-b421934.html

By returning to exponential growth we will be back where we were in March by mid October. In March it was estimated that cases were vastly underreported with estimates that there were around 100,000 a day.

If we apply the current rate of transmission to the current case numbers we have
11th sept 3539 cases a day
18th sept 7078 cases a day
25th sept 14156 cases a day
2nd oct 28312 cases a day
9th oct 56624 cases a day
9th oct 113248 cases a day
16th oct 226496 cases a day
23rd oct 452992 cases a day

Surely this will mean the nhs getting overwhelmed again and being back in lockdown by October?

This is an interesting read on exponential growth bias and why most people vastly underestimate the spread.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

Yes possibly, but I do not understand why so many parents are ok with this

Because what’s the alternative? Schools closing again for 6 months? How is that any way to run a society, virus or no virus? I’m not “ok” with it in that I’d rather (like all of us) Covid fucked off but whether I’m “ok” with it or not it’s here. Kids need an education. And before online learning is suggested again, if someone can tell me how kids in the senior phase of secondary school can study subjects with a high level of practical input online. My nephew is studying higher design and manufacture and higher art. How can those be done at home?

@MadameBlobby

I expect:

• testing to work
• tracing to work
• isolation to happen

Without those, schools are fucked.

I have no.power to fix it. But I'm in the system and can discuss it.

I'm not happy with my school given how badly our country is dealing with the systems for controlling the virus.

We simply cannot afford another national lockdown.

We cannot have a situation for much longer where everyone is asked to put their lives on hold, other conditions are not detected and treated, the economy is destroyed and mental health problems go through the roof, for a virus that poses no or very little threat to most people.

At risk individuals should be given an individual risk assessment and be supported financially and practically to shield if they wish to. Otherwise we need to start getting back to normal while taking sensible precautions, local lockdowns where necessary and avoiding high risk activities like nightclubs.

chance In a perfect world we would have a vaccine, a string of cures and a perfect test that works in 20 seconds.

We can all list what we would like in an ideal world, but we have to make do with what is realistic.

You can keep running the country down and being negative, but it won't change anything apart from further misery. Cheer up, wash your hands and be grateful you still have a job.

"And hopefully care homes will be protected this time"

What are the measures to protect care homes at the moment - I think I read that visits may be restricted further. Is there a regular testing framework for staff, daily temperature screening etc (I know temperature screening is not that effective but I suppose it's cheap and would be unlikely to do any harm, at least? Are care home staff first in line for the 20 minute saliva tests if and when they're available?

@Wemayhavemetbefore

"And hopefully care homes will be protected this time"

What are the measures to protect care homes at the moment - I think I read that visits may be restricted further. Is there a regular testing framework for staff, daily temperature screening etc (I know temperature screening is not that effective but I suppose it's cheap and would be unlikely to do any harm, at least? Are care home staff first in line for the 20 minute saliva tests if and when they're available?

I’m in Scotland where care home staff are tested every week

@Friendsoftheearth

chance In a perfect world we would have a vaccine, a string of cures and a perfect test that works in 20 seconds.

We can all list what we would like in an ideal world, but we have to make do with what is realistic.

You can keep running the country down and being negative, but it won't change anything apart from further misery. Cheer up, wash your hands and be grateful you still have a job.

I'm not running the country down, that's the sort of patronising rubbish Boris Johnson comes out with when he doesn't have a proper answer.

All I'm.saying is we need test, trace and isolate to work.

That is pretty basic stuff.

Maybe parents are ok with school because children rarely have complications and the virus isn't going away. Even in Belgium where children wear masks all day cases in the community have risen.

We have to live with it and try to remember that people ate dying in much larger numbers from other things

we If the infection rate continues then care homes will be locked down again, I imagine they will be the first to see much stricter restrictions. I don't think we they will be first in line for the instant tests, that will be the NHS front line, but I am sure they will be a priority. We know now that agency carers must be stopped due to them travelling from one home to another was one of the reasons covid spread so quickly. A faster response will save many lives this time.

"I’m in Scotland where care home staff are tested every week"

Thanks Madame, that's really interesting. If prevalence is increasing, is there a move towards daily testing in Scotland? Would be interesting to know if weekly testing is routine in the rest of UK as well, if anyone knows? (This - www.gov.uk/apply-coronavirus-test-care-home suggests testing of asymptomatic staff and patients is available, but I don't know what the practice is).

'can't believe people are actually saying "bring on the Marshalls"

I was being silly, sorry. This country seems to need to be constantly told what to do and to be reminded of the guidance. How many people say things like 'how can me cleaner, window cleaner and project manager come round but I can't have Tarquin and the gang for supper?!'.

It's crazy. So many wet people who can’t function without more than 6 people in their house. I dont mean those with genuine mh issues obviously

@Wemayhavemetbefore

"I’m in Scotland where care home staff are tested every week"

Thanks Madame, that's really interesting. If prevalence is increasing, is there a move towards daily testing in Scotland? Would be interesting to know if weekly testing is routine in the rest of UK as well, if anyone knows? (This - www.gov.uk/apply-coronavirus-test-care-home suggests testing of asymptomatic staff and patients is available, but I don't know what the practice is).

I don’t know, my hairdresser also works in a care home so I can ask her. I think they also try to test residents as much as they can but it’s difficult because the test is distressing for many of them.

Thanks Friends, yes I see the point about agency staff. Though in practice if its permanent staff are off sick, can a care home manage without any agency staff? I suppose they can make it a condition that the agency worker only works for one home.

Back in march /april there was some discussion on mn about whether you could realistically pay some care workers more to live in the care home, or self-isolate in hotels when not working. All very expensive (and wouldn't work for those with dc obviously). But then so would a second lockdown of restaurants/pubs be expensive, and there might be some care workers who would be happy to do this. Would be interesting to know what other measures the government is planning. Like domiciliary care workers going to many different houses - are there plans to try to restrict that as well? Again very expensive, but possibly cheaper than a second lockdown of some businesses.

There was a care home near me where some of the staff moved in.

@Friendsoftheearth

Not sure why you think I hate my job - unless you are implying I am a teacher? I'm not. Maybe you got confused between posters.

Scotland's tracing is reaching 90%.
England's reaches barely a third.
All I would wish for is England to achieve the basic things we all need. If Scotland can do it, so can England.

We need test, trace and isolate. England currently has none of these three.

Wrt worldometers- someone upthread said they were doom-mongering figures- at the beginning of the pandemic worldometers- was updated based on the official statistics given by each country itself, and often under-reported rather than over
That may now have changed, but if anything their reporting is likely to be under rather than over.

In March there was a well-known Covid sceptic MNer who would relentlessly point out that worldometers- said there were only 20 people in hospital ICU in the UK. Despite by that time the govt itself saying 500+were dying every day. The stats simply weren't being updated.
As I said, may be different now.

As someone who is a secondary teacher, whose DH is a secondary teacher and whose DC is severely disabled in a care home, I am dreading this Winter. It was bad enough before when we couldn't see DC for 11 weeks (usually see DC twice a week). It destroyed DH and I- how we are supposed to carry on teaching if it happens again, well I don't think we will be able to,

@BrieAndChilli

BUT

In March we were only testing people who were hospitalised/extremely ill.
Now we are testing everyone, even people with no symptoms really or symptoms that wouldn’t raise an eyebrow in normal times.
So in March that 100,000 was the worst cases, if we had tested everyone it probably would have been 500,000 or even more.
So I don’t think we can compare like for like as we are testing in a completely different way now. It would be better to compare death rates.

UK confirmed cases in March and April never got higher than around 5000 per day. ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&year=latest&country=~GBR&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Actual infections in March and April can only be estimated due to limited testing, but if they were 20 times higher then that would be around 100,000 per day at peak or if 30 times higher then 150,000 or if 50 times higher then 250,000. They would have to have been 100 times higher to peak at 500,000 per day, but most models estimate they were between 20 to 50 times higher.

@monkeytennis97

As someone who is a secondary teacher, whose DH is a secondary teacher and whose DC is severely disabled in a care home, I am dreading this Winter. It was bad enough before when we couldn't see DC for 11 weeks (usually see DC twice a week). It destroyed DH and I- how we are supposed to carry on teaching if it happens again, well I don't think we will be able to,

That’s terrible monkeytennis. I wouldn’t usually suggest this but in your circs I’d seriously consider getting signed off with stress. You need to put your own well-being and your children ahead of a job.

chance you are constantly drip feeding negativity on every thread, mainly going on about government handling but also scaremongering on school threads. If you are not a teacher then you for sure work in a school otherwise why post on the academic common room? Or do you work for a political organisation?

I haven't got the energy to take much interest in what people post and where, but yours are striking because the tone is always the same. Everything is awful and will only get worse - along those lines anyway.

Havent read the full thread but wrt to schools. My kids schools are in 'bubbles'. The bubble being the whole class room together with no SD. But they can't mingle with other year groups.

My son has had covid symptoms this week so rightly I've kept him and his brother off school. Eventually managed to get him a test and am awaiting results. Youngest son is fine and well. School called me the first day I called in sick and said is youngest fine? I said yes. They have said that he can return to school! I hadn't even managed to obtain a test for my oldest at this point.

So I could potentially be sending a covid carrier into a class room of 30 plus staff, whilst having to drag my oldest, sick child out if the house in order to do so. Fantastic!

monkey why not leave your teaching post and take up on line tutoring for now, and if and when the pandemic dies down you can rejoin? If I had a severely disabled child I would be looking at all the options now. It must be a huge worry for you.

'Scotland's tracing is reaching 90%. England's reaches barely a third. All I would wish for is England to achieve the basic things we all need.'

That's interesting, do you have a link?

I wonder of its anything to do with England's population of 54m compared to Scotland's very small 5m. I mean obviously it shouldn't matter as staff ratio will reflect that but maybe the demographics in Scotland make it easier? It won't just be a better system run by superior Scottish people.

You'd think logistically it would be easier to track and trace in a small, less densely populated country than in a very diverse and densely populated country like England.