Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Thanks @Barracker . Are you alright, you've been quiet?

I'm totally fine, thank you for asking - just focusing more on personal and family for a while, and am so happy to see that many posters are keeping this discussion going without any need for contribution from me.

Hope you are all well too.

Many thanks for the new thread, Barracker 💐🍫

That's good to hear all is well with you

Long time lurker here. Thank you very much for these fantastic threads.

Thanks Barracker and the others!

Thanks @Barracker

Hello!

Longtime lurker here, I love these threads, they are so informative and non hysterical! Apologies if this is covered somewhere and I’ve missed it, but I’m trying to understand the flatten the curve graphs on the John Hopkins dashboard. (Under the critical trends tab)

If I’m reading them right, the little blue and pink triangles relate to a rolling 5 day average of whether cases are going up or down by each country. If this is the case, yesterday’s data suggests Spain and UK are the only countries going down at present? Does this trend fluctuate over the course of a week due to reporting cycles (like the daily death tallies do) or is this a reaction to lockdown restrictions being eased?

Im guessing if JH took a 10 day average most European countries would be reducing?

Sorry, these are probably silly questions but I’m just trying to clarify my thinking!

Thanks for the thread, I have followed from the start and find them calming and informative.

I fall into the vulnerable group, BMI over 40, started watching what I eat, more exercise and I have gone from 48.3 to 43.7 so far.

Ofcourse I’m scared of my chances If I was to catch Corona but the measured responses on these threads have been somewhat reassuring for me and I’m sure others too!

Re anigen tests and vaccines
No other coronavirus has an effective long lasting vaccine or immunity.
COVID will be the same.
Therefore keeping schools and workplaces and travel closed until there is immunity is pointless
because there won't be.
As per MD in the current Private Eye

• learn how to not catch it
• learn how to keep it mild if you do catch it
• protect those who are unable to do either

Can I ask all you sensible people some questions, please? I dip in and out of here quite regularly and have read some of the studies and it is useful to have things put in perspective.

I am a teacher and am classed as high risk. I also have a high risk child at home. I am secondary, my school is supportive and it seems unlikely now a I will need to be in work before September.

I work in a school of two halves: and old part heated by long pipes going around classrooms and a new part heated by some kind of ceiling airflow thing which when the dial is turned the other way turns to air conditioning.

Given my age plus additional risk plus additional risk at home, would it be sensible to ask for a temporary room swap? From a risk point of view, if a child in class has the virus, I would be marginally less likely to contract it in an old classroom rather than a new one given that the heating system wouldn’t allow droplets to circulate further around the room? My room is much coveted cos the air con and there are plenty of younger staff so I am pretty sure someone would be happy to make the move. But is it clutching at straws or good sense?!

I would have thought that was a reasonable adjustment given you're on the vulnerable list (presuming that's what you mean by high risk). There is research about aircon I think, not sure where though.

I know reasonable adjustments are from disability law terminology, but I would have thought the principle was the same. In fact I wonder if case law at least will change, to include COVID vulnerability as a (temporary) disability? Interesting thought.

Howabout
If you are registered disabled then it would come under reasonable adjustment
as you are not asking them to do other than what might be randomly done by timetabling.
If your hunch is correct that other teachers might covet the room, the school might jump at the chance .

Checking in

I am not registered disabled, just high risk from a COVID perspective. Interesting. I may moot it to my head of department and see what she thinks. I’m right in thinking that from a risk point of view, it would be safer, albeit marginally?,

Thanks Barracker.

I have to say, following the Cummings debacle, I'm losing interest in what's happening in the UK, as I find it hard to believe anything any government spokespersons say. I've also become cynical at the mainstream papers and am getting most of my figures from the FT, of all things!

I am trying to watch hospital admissions, as that seems to be (a) accurate and (b) a good indicator as to how things are going.

Does anyone have an explanation for how Sweden is managing to mirror our curve without lockdown or closing schools?
Also does anyone know why south American curves are a very different shape?

Howaboutanewname there is no such thing as being registered disabled. If your risk is severe asthma or diabetes you’re covered by the Equality Act and can ask for reasonable adjustments (other conditions may be too, I only know about these two!).

According to a work colleague from Sweden, most of the population has been working from home/social distancing voluntarily from the start. Even with that, the rates compared to other Scandinavian countries are shocking.

South American numbers are reliant on South American governments providing them, and they may not be entirely accurate. There is no attempt at controlling the pandemic in Brazil because Bolsonaro is nuts.

Bookmarking.

Whynotme40 All the other Scandi / Nordic countries have much lower cases & death rates than other European countries following the same strategy
but Sweden has several times the deaths / million of their Nordic neighbours who locked down fully

Sweden also has about the same predicted 6 - 8 % drop in GDP as Germany & France - who also both locked down fully

I gather for Sweden it was as much about personal freedom - and keeping to their constitution - as a strategy for fighting a pandemic.
So their public are supportive of this.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/22/sweden-u-turn-controversial-covid-19-strategy

According to figures published on Tuesday, it now has the highest coronavirus-per-capita death rate in the world, with an average of 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants a day on a rolling seven-day average between 13 and 20 May.

As of 22 May, Sweden has had 32,172 confirmed cases and 3,871 deaths.
These figures are lower than those of Italy or the UK.

But they are higher than those of Portugal and Greece, two countries with a similar size of population to Sweden.

The figures are also much higher than Sweden’s Nordic neighbours, with Denmark at 11,182 cases and 561 deaths, Norway at 8,309 and 235, and Finland at 6,537 and 306.

< graph of total deaths normalised wrt population shown below , LOG scale >

"why south American curves are a very different shape"

They are increasing steadily and the curves have not yet flattened, because measures have not been effective - Brazil has almost no measures.

Also, S America has much lower average population age than developed Western countries,
which is why their curve gradient is shallower

• developing countries would have an even shallower curve because of even lower age _ Median ages of population:_

47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
42 France
41 Sweden
40 UK

32 Argentina
33 Brazil

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Does anyone have an explanation for how Sweden is managing to mirror our curve without lockdown or closing schools?

Probably because sensible social distancing (which it seems Swedes have generally been doing) is enough to make a big difference to transmission, and a full on lockdown only gives marginal gains.

Also, their position with schools is really encouraging - something we need to learn from - which does support claims that children aren’t especially infectious when infected.

Thanks for a new thread Barracker

why south American curves are a very different shape

My theory is that there has been some social distancing, but not enough to reduce the R to below 1, so growth hasn’t been as explosive.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/llama-coronavirus-antibodies-study-benefitss*

Re anigen tests and vaccines
No other coronavirus has an effective long lasting vaccine or immunity.
COVID will be the same.

Never say never; this is a novel virus and I don't believe we've had much cause to spend time and money on treatments or vaccines for other coronaviruses.