Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Thanks for the replies

We do have vaccines for animal coronaviruses. We've just not needed one for human coronaviruses until now. They do have to be given as a booster every year though I believe.

Place marking

Neurotrash
Never say never
Quarantine
They do have to be given as a booster every year though I believe.
My point exactly.

Much of the talk has been as if COVID is like Measles - get it once or be immunised and you are safe for life
but that is highly, highly unlikely to be the case
so we need to plan accordingly

I haven't been following the vaccine stuff closely but it's likely to be like the flu vaccine? Yearly boosters or similar.

Barracker thanks for the new thread

"Much of the talk has been as if COVID is like Measles"

Only among the wildly optimistic, who think if they catch it, they'll have lifelong immunity

Most scientists expect immunity will be about 2 years, so vaccination will need to be every 2 years

and scientists in the field are still optimistic about developing a vaccine, but realistically 2021, not this year.
If expert opinion on this changes, then I'll accept that

There are Coronavirus vaccines for some animals, because it was cost-effective to develop them
SARS & MERS only killed a few thousand between them - and hardly any were white;
COVID is costing the global economy many trillions, so there is far more motivation

"why south American curves are a very different shape
.... My theory is that there has been some social distancing"

Very different regimes among the various countries, with different policies

We know age trumps every other factor by a massive amount
and S American countries have much younger populations than in developed Western countries

Thanks once again for these threads.

Thanks for new thread

And thank you for keeping me sane. Bigchoc and shoots. You have helped a very frightened woman with MH problems cope. I usually read before I go to sleep, I find it helps me keep perspective. Thank you.

ICNARC report on COVID-19 in critical care 22 May 2020

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/593555ce-709c-ea11-9126-00505601089b

Table 1 = demographics
for COVID vs pneumonia caused by other viruses.

Note:
far fewer admission in years 2017-2019 pneumonia than in 11 weeks of COVID !

Table 10 = medical history
Compared to viral pneumonia patients, ICU admissions for COVID-19 were healthier beforehand:

2 x LESS likely to need assistance with daily living,
or to have very severe comorbidities

So COVID is killing off healthier people than ordinary viral pneumonia does;
it is NOT killing off those about to die anyway

Table 3 = demography by ethnicity

Non-white ICU admissions are:

• younger
• much more like to be living in deprivation
• significantly LESS likely to be overweight or obese

Is the NHS still updating the graph "by date of death". Haven't seen it for a while, and can't find it. I assume they stopped when they added care home deaths?? I preferred it as it shows the actual curve rather than a "reported" curve.

ICNARC Figure 15 Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals

• This is the risk of dying after being admitted to ICU

Comparison is to a reference group defined as having risk 1.0 by definition.

AGE is by far the most important "hazard":

Someone aged 70 is about 2 x more likely to die as someone aged 60 and 4 x someone aged 40

Once in ICU, sex ceases to be statistically significant
So sex affects the likelihood of being ill enough to require ICU, but not survival once there

"hazard ratios (HR) are reported relative to the median value for age (60 years) and the threshold for defining obesity for body mass index (30 kg/m2).
Immunocompromised includes the conditions as defined on page 34 and also metastatic disease and haematological malignancy."

ICNARC: Likelihood of admission to ICU

1. Age - dominant
2. Sex

Males are more at risk than females in every age group of requiring ICU

About 2/3 of ICU patients are men aged 40-80

ICNARC: BMI and ICU admission

Orange curve is BMI distribution in the general population, as reference

There are a lower % of ICU admissions for "overweight but not obese" (BMI 25-30)

higher % for class I & II obese (BMI 30-39.9) and
significantly higher % for morbidly obese (BMI 40+)

Found it - and yes it confirms that hospital deaths are steadily going down, with care homes now the biggest issue. Not that we didn't know that.

ICNARC Hazard ratios - further comments:
(risk of dying after being admitted to ICU)

Risk is significantly higher for the most deprived, but not for other levels of deprivation

Risk is slightly higher for black people than white and looks significantly higher for Asians

The data set sent out today don't include their traffic light system showing the number we are on.

The email with the data said the risk level "has been raised to high".

Does that mean from 4 to 5? It's very ambiguous. And raised seems to indicate they've upped the risk?

ICNARC obviously does not cover all hospital admissions and deaths. Can we assume that the deaths not included in this data are those where there is a DNR or where invasive/aggressive treatment is deemed too aggressive. It would be wrong to use this data as reassurance for whole population but ok if you are in the groups that are likely to receive ICU care.

Looks like men over 50 need to stay in...

So if 17% of 9m but only 5% of the rest so about 6.6% have had it.
For 50k deaths so for 66% immunity it would be 500k deaths. ?

The icu data shows covid is twice as deadly as normal admissions.

Thank you for this thread.

A vaccine will be found, I am sure of it . It will then go on the vaccine schedule for kids before school and anyone who gets a flu jab will get this too. That way there will still be a wild virus but it wont cause much harm due to lots of immunity in the population. Then they will find ways to treat it for the rest of us who get a bad case and life will move on....

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy. Sobering reading. Am I reading it right that average admission age was 59? #Gulps