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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

975 replies

Barracker · 23/05/2020 10:40

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
GlassOfProsecco · 25/05/2020 08:16

I work in the NHS in Scotland & our track & trace started last Thursday; we are one of the trial health boards.

Interestingly, there have been no new cases for my area in 4 days. With only 800 having been identified as covid positive the entire time, I'm hopeful we can control numbers effectively.

EducatingArti · 25/05/2020 11:13

I think the government have quietly changed the wording about test 4 and track and trace.
It now just talks about testing capacity being " in hand".

ClarasZoo · 25/05/2020 11:31

I am quite anxious about coronavirus, hence try to look for positive stats. Have only just realised that Singapore has a ifr of 0.1% based on 23 deaths out of 32,000 confirmed cases. They have an average aged population almost the same as UK. Perhaps the majority, but not all, of those sampled are a younger population? Do any wiser posters have a comment on this? Have they effectively isolated the vulnerable? Are they undercounting covid deaths? Are they testing lots of children? How is this figure so different from europe? Even Iceland is 4 times higher and they sampled lots of their population...

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 25/05/2020 15:50

I am quite anxious about coronavirus, hence try to look for positive stats. Have only just realised that Singapore has a ifr of 0.1% based on 23 deaths out of 32,000 confirmed cases. They have an average aged population almost the same as UK.

No they don't. Not at all.

www.populationpyramid.net/singapore/2019/
www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2019/

They have a larger working age population, a much, much smaller population of very old, and a smaller working age population.

They import young people from neighbouring countries. These people have very low risk from covid-19, because they are young and probably in good health.

Also compared to the pisspoor dogshit testing strategy in the UK, they knew exactly who was infected, who they met, where they had been, how old they are, etc.

co.vid19.sg/singapore/

Their infections are averaging age 35. Almost no-one is over 60.

Singapore is the most law-abiding country in the world. The UK is a crime-ridden cesspit in comparison. They don't fuck about. People breaking quarantine regulations have been deported, fined thousands of dollars, etc.

Of the 547 cases reported yesterday, 544 were migrant workers in dormitories.

You can bet they test every last person there.

UK?

Millions of people infected. Most asymptomatic. Get into care homes. Kill tens of thousands of people.

If Singapore had an infection in an old people's home they would go there and test all the workers and residents. And then staff would be quarantined, and if they didn't follow the rules, they'd deport them permanently.

It's normal in Asia to employ young migrant workers (unskilled labour). They tend to go back to their home countries relatively young. They are very very unlikely to die of covid-19 because of age.

There isn't really any way in Singapore for uncontrolled infection to occur because it's so famous as the land of rules. The government does what it thinks is best for the people. And the people can like it or shut up.

The UK is showing similar infection rates across the population. This is indicative of a governmental machinery that is incapable of responding to such a threat in timely fashion, and it just randomly infected millions, and then killed some % of the vulnerable groups.

Singapore is showing 90% male infections, because they are only infecting migrant workers. Probably there would be three and fifty billion articles in The Guardian about how terrible this is and the BBC would go down and report endlessly, while ignoring the old people dying. But that would be rather stupid, because Singapore has 23 deaths, and the UK has 2000 times that number.

There is an explanation here

www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3081772/coronavirus-why-so-few-deaths-among-singapores-14000

Keepdistance · 25/05/2020 20:07

We have such low expectations of people (gov etc) and such low education levels that some people think BJ is doing well (weeps).
To be fair though it's clear lots did follow the rules now we see the beaches. It's clear it is intended to even up the infection levels.
Will non London end up more hard hit in the end.
If 1/375 are infected when they all head to the beach where there's thousands.
I think he is just relying on the summer holiday dip like swine flu but covid rose up in only 4w and we are surely already at a higher community level.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/05/2020 20:08

Exactly
Age, rule of law, government being decisive
Absolutely key factors anywhere in determining how badly Covid hits - difficult to change factor #1 though !

pfrench · 25/05/2020 20:21

Sorry to ask a dumbarse question... I was following it all very closely until it became obvious it was affecting my mental health.

Is there any evidence since things loosened up a little (officially or otherwise), that cases are going up again? The FT stuff was good at the beginning, but doesn't seem to be doing the same stuff now..

pfrench · 25/05/2020 20:41

No worries, I was being lazy- I've found the Guardian data. The deaths graph decrease is slowing down?

pfrench · 25/05/2020 20:44

Like this graph - it's levelling out again. Green line mine.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9
Sunshinegirl82 · 25/05/2020 20:58

The daily briefing slides are available for each day here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/887268/2020-05-25_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_with_Annex__2_.pdf

They show that number of positive tests, number of people hospitalised with COVID and number of deaths are all slowly declining.

EducatingArti · 25/05/2020 21:17

Except in Weston Super Mare

Sunshinegirl82 · 25/05/2020 21:19

I think the Western Super Mare issue has been explained quite a few times.

Sunshinegirl82 · 25/05/2020 21:20

Weston, sorry autocorrect.

EducatingArti · 25/05/2020 21:30

I haven't seen that. Is it a MN thread or elsewhere?

Sunshinegirl82 · 25/05/2020 21:34

There are several threads on the topic. General gist is that the a&e at that hospital has been scheduled for permanent closure, closes regularly and at 10pm everyday in any event and the hospital has only 5 critical care beds.

alreadytaken · 25/05/2020 22:12

that might be the general gist - but someone local pointed out there was still an increase in cases in the area.

Sunshinegirl82 · 25/05/2020 22:40

There look to have been 55 new cases diagnosed in North Somerset in the last week.

StrawberryJam200 · 25/05/2020 22:46

Have people seen the European CDC graph of average daily deaths per million population - which we now top?

oldbagface · 25/05/2020 22:47

Just seen this on Facebook.

In other news...The #UK that has now the highest rate of confirmed deaths from #COVID19 worldwide.

[Link to the source: t.co/h7heGYlU2X]

Chicchicchicchiclana · 25/05/2020 22:48

Incredible statistics!

Population of Japan: 126,500,000 (nearly double that of the UK)

Coronavirus deaths: under 900.

And they have the world's oldest population.

How can this be?

Few obese people, few dark skinned people. But - what else?

StrawberryJam200 · 25/05/2020 22:51

@Chicchicchicchiclana they were just discussing this on Radio 4. Answers included rare obesity, often wear masks, learning from SARS.

Quarantino · 26/05/2020 00:28

South West of England has had the lowest level of people in hospital compared with other regions (from the daily briefing data) and generally the lowest hospital admission rate - until about 18 May when it seemed to jump sharply (from the weekly surveillance data). North Somerset (where Weston A&E is) has the highest infection rate in the South West (from the dashboard map), even more than urban Bristol. The number of cases by LA (from the dashboard case data) has shot up for North Somerset and completely overtaken Bristol which has barely any recently. HOWEVER, we are still talking very small numbers, like a high point of 16 cases in one day (from a population of 215,000). I'm just thinking out loud trying to work out what this means for people there especially with the hospital closing causing a few worries. I have family in that area trying to make decisions about schooling etc.

Derbygerbil · 26/05/2020 06:37

@ClarasZoo

I believe Singapore’s outbreaks have occurred in migrant working communities that are much younger than the average population, and presumably generally healthy. As their families are in their home countries they don’t pass the infection on to older relatives. I believe the same is true with Qatar.

NeurotrashWarrior · 26/05/2020 06:53

There was a lot of discussion about the impact of Cheltenham on the numbers early on, it seems it was a huge issue.

Coronavirus: Sports events in March 'caused increased suffering and death' www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52797002