Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I think it also reflects that women are more likely to make it to 90.

Bigchoc

Please may I ask, mo social distancing within families...does that include those from different households?

PS your posts are great!

@oldbagface the rates are set annually. so we have a rate for 2020-21, and we don't yet have one for 2021-2022, because they are set every year afresh. So it's not clear if it's permanent or not. But it should prove hard to reverse.

Just looking at this graph on Reddit.

old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/gy9khc/oc_updated_covid19_of_the_population_that_died_in/

It shows how Spain decided 'sorry we're not going to be #1 any more' and just decided to lie.

Also puts Brazil's figures in context.

eyewhisker Mostly it is because women generally outlive men, which starts to be significant from about age 70

However, the greater % of women aged 90+ than e.g. in the UK may well reflect the much heavier death rates among German military in WW2:

5.5 million compared to about 380k for the UK

In Germany:
Women are 78% of the 90-99 age group
and 85% of the 100+ group

In the UK:
400,000 women aged 90+
183,00 men
i.e. women are just under 70% of the 90+ age cohort

Yummy Yes, family members from different households can meet up, or have a holiday together, without social distancing
At least in my area of Germany and afaik in all states

The 16 German states have all along had considerable autonomy in deciding how to carry out the national policy of social distancing
This allows differences due to severity of epidemic, or indeed cultural / religious preferences

From about Easter, one state allowed all family members in direct line,
i.e. for those who didn't live together, siblings couldn't meet without SD,
but child, parent & GP could meet !
Sounds mad, but worked out OK, as current new case & death rate show

In contrast, a couple of cities initially didn't allow exercise
and one city made masks mandatory - and then later had 8 days without any new cases

Now, all states have all shops, gyms, restaurants open with SD and pt schools since about 4 May.
All now have reopened other childcare and plan to have full normal childcare in place for the summer vacation.
The aim is to have ft school back after the vacation, but this will depend on whether cases & deaths remain so low.
However, crowds and large events remain banned

PHE legitimately remove deaths when they have double counted

I'd need a lot more evidence than an old Reddit post that Spain are deliberately lying.
It's very difficult to cover up in a democracy, because whistleblowers will always come forward

We need to look at their national statistics office

Thanks bigchoc

Let’s hope that is high on UK list.

I'd need a lot more evidence than an old Reddit post that Spain are deliberately lying

It's a new Reddit post but let's not split hairs.

I was looking at the shape of the graph, which went from a curve to a horizontal line. This is not possible.

It's why people saying we need zero deaths in the UK are absolutely wrong. Deaths don't go from 100 daily to zero. They decay slowly. There IS an asymptote but it's the asymptote that's a flat line, the curve must decay slowly towards it. It is completely and utterly 100% impossible with total certainty for it just stop.

It's a lie. And the graph shows us that.

John Murdoch from FT had some comments on Spanish data

t.co/kThBKffKeD

Sorry behind paywall it seems. But if you go to this twitter you can see it.

Apparently Spain did indeed lie

www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43673

Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, hailed the zero deaths figure as “an achievement of everyone”. His government says it is a vindication of Spain’s harsh lockdown and its success in bringing down the daily death toll from a peak of 950 two months ago.

Sorry I see that link has been posted albeit obfuscated....

@Hadenoughfornow

Thanks for this. It clearly wasn’t credible that Spain’s deaths had dropped to zero or one per day so abruptly.

This amp link might escape the paywall

amp.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43673

Spain has released new numbers dated 7 June

www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_129_COVID-19.pdf

The weekly figures show 39 deaths in the last 7 days on Madrid.

The figures for 25 May (2 weeks earlier) showed 3 deaths in past 7 days.

It is not clear where this anomaly comes from, but the 3 deaths was clearly bollocks. The data say

Con fecha de defunción en los últimos 7 días

Which seems to refer to date of death, not registration. And the numbers as of 25 May 8686 with 3 in last 7 days and now 8691.

Doesn't look like reporting worthy of a first world country

No Covid deaths in London in the past 24 hours

Today's overall UK All settings death announcement is 55, another negative day for PHE England. Even by the standards of the normal weekend lag, that's super low.

It will bounce up again over the next couple of days. Several big London trusts (Barts, Chelsea & Westminister, London NW and others) are usually late in reporting so whilst no London deaths announced today is great news, there will be some catchup this week.

V interested to see hospital admissions later, I think they are more interesting re, current position right now.

Can we be cautiously optimistic at this stage?

I worry about these low death numbers, psychologically : I think it leads to changes in attitudes and social behaviours.

The easing of lockdown hasn't worked its way into death stats yet, for example. Or even possibly hospital admissions quite yet.

People's behaviour was going to change anyway. At some point they decide the risk is worth seeing family and friends, whatever the numbers are.

I worry about these low death numbers, psychologically : I think it leads to changes in attitudes and social behaviours

Or it could be a much needed psychological boost that all these sacrifices have been worth it.

yes, I suppose that is the other way of looking at it. All that will depend upon whether they stay down , or this is just your Monday blip.

It’s low even for a Monday

The number is bound to increase tomorrow, we know that always happens. It’s still the lowest Monday figure for a very long time though so I’d say that’s a reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Deaths are til 7pm last night. Is that new or did I miss a change somewhere?