Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I worry about these low death numbers, psychologically : I think it leads to changes in attitudes and social behaviours

I just reread this and think it’s quite an odd view to have. Would you rather the death toll was higher to that people would behave in an ‘acceptable’ way?

On the Gov page it says 5pm, same as previous days. Maybe a misprint?

FT is usually a reliable source

I suspect the Spanish government are depserately trying to attract foreign tourists this summer, to save its hospitality sector

They don't seem to have the UK govt obsession with everything being "world-beating" but without millions of summer tourists, their economy is going to crash.

Are they just going to reopen locked down areas and gamble it'll be OK?

Relaxing foreign travel this summer is one step I find too soon anyway, other than within a few countries with v low death rates

Of course, the British government has been thwarted by the ONS, Whitty & assorted leaks
in its own attempts to manipulate the number of tests and the contact tracking system,
but the attempts were more polished than this

Much more important to reopen schools than airports

Germany and iirc France reopened schools pt as about the first relaxation stage, before even the larger non-essential shops were open

This should be the priority everywhere, not bread & circuses to distract the public

UK Govt still managing to obfuscate the actual number of people tested each day very effectively though!

I find low numbers v encouraging, so long as they are honest

We still should be comparing 7-day averages, to avoid statistical noise, but the trend appears continuing downwards
As with Germany, I'm much more interested in these numbers, rather than the R0 mathematical blips.

"UK Govt still managing to obfuscate the actual number of people tested each day very effectively though!"

Which is why the trend in the rolling 7-day deaths curve is so important - deaths are the most reliable metric atm for how the pandemic is behaving
Yes, we all know some of those deaths occurred days earlier, but so did the previous totals

Which is why the trend in the rolling 7-day deaths curve is so important - deaths are the most reliable metric atm for how the pandemic is behaving

I suspect the government has better data than it's letting on re infections. The problem with death data is it's infections from a month ago. Ultra-transparent and world-beating testing, along with banning idiot journalists from reporting conclusions not supported by data, are the keys.

I'm hoping the government will have a fair idea of number of people actually tested (as opposed to tests) and the numbers requesting tests which should be giving some idea of infection in the community. Not sure why they've suspended the number tested for 2 weeks now, if nothing else it's stoking the tin foil hat brigade.

Deaths are til 7pm last night. Is that new or did I miss a change somewhere?

Yes, I wondered that-I thought it was up to 9am. Has it changed?

@apuskido @cathyandclare
DHSC Twitter has the cut offs for infection and deaths are 9am and 5pm respectively still.

I agree BigChocFrenzy, we shouldn’t even be talking about opening airports and bars etc until children are back at school.

Yes, death data is from infections weeks ago, but we can't rely on case figures

We usually don't know how many times people were tested
and increased / reduced testing will obviously affect positive numbers too

"transparent and world-beating testing"

The govt have obfuscated continually and only the ONS and Whitty have saved us from worse

As for "world-beating" I wish BJ & his ministers would stop these juvenile claims for everything,
especially when so much looks like "World Class" failure

I would be happy with reliable systems that are actually available & working.
Less spin and more work.

Contact tracking is essential too - but reports are this won't be in full operation until September or October.
Other countries were doing mass tracking in March, when PHE said they could only track contacts for 5 cases
That's outrageous and so is the delay March to October.

Deaths til 7pm on the 7th.

BigChoc yes that sums up the UK government - all spin about how they can make themselves look as good, or not as atrociously bad, as possible. And little focus on the details of the job at hand.

We'll need a new thread again soon! Thanks again to all the excellent contributors. I suspect you are a beacon of sanity for a lot of MNers...

Other countries were doing mass tracking in March

Singapore did it from day 1 in January

againstcovid19.com/singapore/cases/singapore-case-13-73-year-old-female-chinese-national-from-wuhan

They published the relationships between and movements of each case and tracked down asymptomatic contacts.

The govt have obfuscated continually and only the ONS and Whitty have saved us from worse

TBF, while the ONS did respond in very timely fashion, NHS England's daily death figures were far more useful in early April when the exponential growth in deaths had still to feed into the delayed weekly death stats from ONS.

@QuentinWinters
That still says 5pm. "As of 5pm on the 7th"

Yep, I should have compared just to other European countries

Singapore and countries who had previously suffered from SARS were right on the ball from the first news of cases in China

Barracker is a bit occupied at the moment and we agreed I should start this

New thread:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3932888-daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-10

Yes, until ONS had enough data, we relied on PHE / NHS data

I was referring to the 200,000 tests ==> capacity etc

but ONS have really done us proud once they got going
They are imo one organisation we have that is genuinely a world-beater for prompt, quality data and dispassionate analysis

the hospital admission figures for England, when we finally got them, look promising - bumpy but not consistently up. Wales are probably right to be more cautious than England. If deaths continue to drop that suggests those now being admitted have a considerably better prognosis than they did at the start. That may be better treatment or the effect of shielding keeping those most at risk out of harms way.

Wow - Government must have pulled out all the stops today to manipulate the figures!
I smell rapid backtracking over the next two weeks.
Which will of course all be put down to the 'success of our policies'.

Haha oops
I thought the deaths/tests used to be at the same cut off