Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@oralengineer
Does this site contain the information you are looking for?

www.divi.de/

118 deaths reported in today's briefing, yet NHS hospital deaths are 147. What am I missing?

The need to open schools on 1st June?

Anyone know how many new cases today. I missed the briefing.

The difference between the NHS and PHE number is because the PHE number today was actually negative - -53. This happens very occasionally when PHE cleans their data and removes duplicated hospitals deaths. Today its come through on a Sunday when there are reporting lags anyway, so the negatives are enough to turn the whole number negative.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will see increases because of the data lag, as always.

Thankyou for explaining, Patricia

It might well be Wednesday before the data lag catches up as tomorrow is a bank holiday. So don't be surprised to see a rise in the daily figure (which is why it's not wise to get stuck on the daily figure but look at the rolling 7 day average)

oh yes, had forgotten the Bank Holiday! Ah, so yes Weds/Thurs might be well up again after 3 days of probable low numbers.

OralEngineer The screenshot I posted showed 12,880 have left ICU, of whom 3,447 have died,
So 73.2% discharged alive from ICU

No ICNARC with detailed breakdown on age, BMI etc

Currently just under 900 patients still in ICU in Germany

Can someone more knowledgeable than me tell me whether it looks like there will be a second wave from looking at other countries? A lot of people say there will be but it doesn’t seem like there has been a resurgence or would it take a while?

Thankyou. I have more interest in clinical data rather than just mortality. Need to risk assess for our patients based on underlying health so a good breadth of information is essential.

Re-opening churches was always a risk, after superspreader events in several countries at religious events,
but several European countries have done so

In Germany, 40 churchgoers tested positive after a May 10 service at a Baptist church in the state of Hessen; 6 were hospitalised.
The church has since reverted to online services. Well, duh.

Not great that the bank holiday will affect the numbers til Wednesday, because it's still Thur 28th when the government will decide whether the 5 Tests have been met to allow Phase 2. Boris didn't mention them when he spoke but the official statement subsequently released confirms that they are still the decisive factor.

Karwoman New cases still only a few hundred in Germany, but there are small hotspots:

that church in Hessen, some care homes for the elderly, 2 or 3 meat processing plants, a DPD depot

So long as these remain isolated and the total number of cases doesn't shoot up, local lockdowns or closures should suffice

A 2nd wave would be exponential growth, so new cases shooting up into several thousand per day again.
No sign of that so far in any country that has re-opened^
but it's only been a month, early days yet

Thank you. That’s scary about the church service and shows it’s still very much out there.

I always check on the daily figures for a few places I know. Blackpool has shown a huge spike for yesterday. I'm hoping that is just a testing anomaly rather than the result of all the idiots out and not observing distancing in the recent warm weather

The first consultant to die was working in a&e at the time but was not an a&e specialist. I wonder if the death figures represent their normal specialty rather than where they worked when they died.

Those working in ICU get dehydrated because PPE is very hot. It's emotionally draining as well as physically draining when you have significant numbers dying on you. It's not really surprising if there are high sickness rates.

Vitamin D is important in the T cell response. Some people are now shielding. So the next wave may well be milder than the first even if social distancing is more or less abandoned. It is the winter wave that worries me especially outside London.

We wont know what impact the relaxation is having for 2 weeks - the impact will initially be too small to notice. The decline in admissions in England may have stopped but it's too early to say and the total figure does not quite seem to gel with regional figures. I cant find the numbers the graphs are based on.

I noticed the press release on the gov website about th3 schools announcement and these as the 5 tests

1. Protect the NHS’s ability to cope. We must be confident that we are able to provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment right across the UK
2. See a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates from COVID-19 so we are confident that we have moved beyond the peak
3. Reliable data from SAGE showing that the rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels across the board
4. Be confident that the range of operational challenges, including testing capacity and PPE, are in hand, with supply able to meet future demand
5. Be confident that any adjustments to the current measures will not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelms the NHS

I thought number 4 was to have an effective track and trace in place. When did it change? how have I not noticed?! I’m assuming it’s changed because they know they won’t meet it in time for schools reopening so have decided to just shift the goal posts to something they can meet despite making such a song and dance initially about these were carefully made to keep us safe etc, or have I got it all wrong in my tired frazzleness?

Actually, they’ve reworded a chunk haven’t they. Nothing in the first point about preventing the nhs from being overwhelmed. Interesting.

I dont remember what it said but it's wording is very much, 'there ie now a bed for you in icu'. Rather than trying to keep it low.

Thing is i just cant see what they would do about devon and cornwall there is going to be a huge spike there once tourism gets going

Checking in
Thank you all

@Karwomannghia
It looks like there is a second wave in Iran, from the daily infections graph on worldometer. It is not so clear looking at the increase in deaths though. Maybe it is just really an increase in testing? I've not been able to find any analysis of what is happening there.

I'm confused about the track and trace.

I feel like I've seen headlines saying it'll be in place on the 1st June; but I know that my local council are about to pilot a scheme along with about 10 others across the country.

Can't help thinking the Cummings thing has been deliberately planted to distract from other things. Dh was really pissed off that all the questions were about Cummings when he wanted a load about the track and trace etc. I swear we are being puppeteered.

Hello, has the data for the "17% of Londoners have evidence of antibodies" been published anywhere? I am interested in how they sampled subjects. I haven't managed to find it anywhere.