Does anyone else think things are going to be worse than most people realise?

[username108]

In terms of the global depression and the short and long term effects? From what i've been reading, I don't think this is something we have ever faced and most people think it's going to be like the 2008 recession. People keep talking about a new normal but I don't think things will ever be like they were in 2019.

MN makes me laugh. I do this for a living and yes London is expected to overtake NY within the next two years. Do those who have commented with laughing emojis but no other arguement understand the index? how it is calculated? how close we are to NY? Why no other European city will ever get close to the top? The unique combination of qualities that London offers which make it so popular as a financial centre? I suspect not.

The claim for London is generally acknowledged to be true (dissenters will claim that one of the Asian centres may leap ahead, but unlikely now) it is not my personal invention. So instead of just laughing make your argument posters. Say who you think and back it up.

I agree with your points cake.

The costs of Brexit-related supply chain disruptions have never been lower. The EU is going to be trying to turn the tanker around while quelling tensions across the continent while Britain could sort itself out much more quickly, untethered to their regulatory regime and Eurozone issues.

That said, I have zero confidence in Johnson's ability to get that particular job done. He has lost the essence of what led him to a landslide victory.

I love cake. I hope you are right.

This recession will no doubt increase inequality further. Those with adequate savings, safe jobs and mortgages they can cover will be fine, a short dip in house prices before they rise again. But those in the private rental sector, low or average salaries, self employed, unsecured jobs etc, they will struggle.

Absolutely. I think the first trillionaire will spring from the ashes of covid19.

@MarginalGain I read that Jeff Bezos is on course to become the first trillionaire.

There will be many of those who will suffer the consequences but I don't think anything will change, the austerity policies will be resurrected under a different name. Those who are now losing out financially will probably have to rely on benefits and become "scroungers" in the eyes of those whose lives have not been financially impacted. That's how it has always been and how it will continue to be.

@Rainbow12e really, I don’t think so, flights, restaurants, theatre, cinema, pubs these won’t go back for a long time.

We are through the worst of it.

In what sense?

We are through the worst of it

It must be lovely in fantasy land.

We are through the worst of it. Sorry if that upsets you. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Except it

Why would I be upset at the thought of being through the worst of anything?

This thread is about the economic shocks, not the hospitalisation rates, the former of which have not yet been felt as the government is printing/borrowing money and paying everyone's wages at the moment.

It seems to me that the first major test is in August when the furlough is wound down, but there will be smaller tests as the hospitality sector tries to ramp back up through the summer.

Yes I heard seven percent for Sweden too Redolent, and highest death rate per capita in the world there now

I think this is referring to a rolling average of numbers in May only. I don't know if is correct as so.much of the number crunching is confusing but the claim that Swedens numbers are now the worst are about the numbers not coming down as they are in other countries ( including the UK). That they are plateuing but the rate of infection is not reducing . I don't say I agree but the worldometer numbers won't be reflecting that yet if it is true.

The costs of Brexit-related supply chain disruptions have never been lower. The EU is going to be trying to turn the tanker around while quelling tensions across the continent while Britain could sort itself out much more quickly, untethered to their regulatory regime and Eurozone issues. That said, I have zero confidence in Johnson's ability to get that particular job done. He has lost the essence of what led him to a landslide victory

I agree with both these points.

You can agree all you want. What about all the job losses, failed businesses and repossessions? High unemployment and people living on universal credit? Or do you seriously believe those things won’t happen?

Well nobody has responded to my request up the thread to back up their sniggering at my reasons to be cheerful with facts and figures. So I repeat responding to a post by just copying it with laughing emojis is not a reasoned debate, if you have a different opinion state it and justify it.

And yes things are going to be very hard Alsohuman, I think everyone knows that, I was just trying to find some positives amongst the gloom. Tourism is about 10% of GDP and we won't see any of that until people start travelling again which will be goodness knows when. There are a lot of jobs dependent on tourists. The cynic in me thinks that the new quarantine rules may be more about British people spending their holiday money within the UK than controlling the virus.

It’s not just tourism though. Aviation has gone, hence 9,000 job losses at Rolls Royce already, many more will follow. Carluccis has lost another thousand, again there will be loads more in hospitality. British people won’t be spending money on holidays if there’s mass unemployment.

If the housing market goes, which it will shortly after job losses, there will be impact on home improvements. No new kitchens and bathrooms, no extensions. I’ve seen it all before. This time will be worse. All in the hands of the most inept government of my lifetime.

You are very political Alsohuman which is affecting how you see things.

Aviation is affected by tourism and the loss of jobs at RR is a follow through from those losses. Restaurants and leisure activities will also suffer from lack of tourists. But if we are not allowed to travel those still in work will have holiday money to spend and will spend it here. Look at the huge number of key workers, NHS, Care staff, delivery drivers, teachers, add in all other govt employees, the fin serv industry who are working from home as are lawyers, accountants etc.That is an awful lot of people looking to holiday and spend money here.

And I disagree about home improvement, those who decide not to move usually extend or improve instead. Where I live I have been given a date in 6 months time for when a builder will come round to give me a quote! goodness knows when the work will get done.

O tut, alsohuman, fancy looking at life through a political lens! Don't you know it affects how you see things. There will always be Pollyannas, glad to disregard realities. And there will also be Eeyores like us giving it all a hard stare. That's enough children's lit references for today.

True about Alsohuman though, every post on every thread is a political rant. I tend to gloss over now which is a shame as she (I presume) does have some interesting things to say.

Yes it’s going to be awful, but not worse than I thought because I’d always tended to give more credence to the pessimistic end of reports (prepare for the worst, hope for better)

And despite Cummings, I think that the global response in locking down and preventing a world wide close to simultaneous peak was the greatest protection to the economy / it would have been so much worse uncontrolled

But that is in no way meant to lessen or detract from how bad it is likely to be in this scenario.

You think the economic state of the country isn’t a political issue? I take it you mean I’m left leaning when you call me “political”?

If you think the financial services will be unscathed you really are deluded. Recession hits every sector. You can continue to see the world through rose tinted spectacles, I’ll continue to shine the cold, hard light of realism.

If you think lockdown was too strong, Sweden is not the one to watch. It's Brazil. Poor buggers.