Does anyone else think things are going to be worse than most people realise?

[username108]

In terms of the global depression and the short and long term effects? From what i've been reading, I don't think this is something we have ever faced and most people think it's going to be like the 2008 recession. People keep talking about a new normal but I don't think things will ever be like they were in 2019.

Yes I heard seven percent for Sweden too Redolent, and highest death rate per capita in the world there now.

Covid kills? So does cancer, heart disease, stroke, meningitis, flu, old age etc, etc, all of which are now contributing to more deaths daily than Covid but we seem to be ignoring them.
For every Covid death someone will have had vital diagnosis or treatment delayed which may result in premature death. Lockdown has seriously disabled the NHS. Peoples ill health hasn’t taken a break to make way for Covid. It is being stored up ready to overwhelm an already stretched system. Don’t expect the NHS to remain free at point of access in the future. The extended recession means it is no longer sustainable in its current form.
We are now prepared for a bigger peak, we can’t stay in lockdown indefinitely. However the most vulnerable can. We need to return to normal so we can support the vulnerable long term.

We need to start getting back to normal. We can’t though, because certain sectors won’t reopen properly, so the rest of us are fucked.

@PafLeChien JP Morgan study disagrees entirely with your post.

Lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic, they have found.

@BillBaileysBum how do you think we feel in Scotland? Can’t even go to the garden centre yet...

We are facing the greatest recession for 300 years and people are banging on about leaving a trading group as our biggest problem! Take a reality check people. That will be like going over a speed ramp compared to a full speed head on collision without seatbelts kind of a recession that we will be experiencing.
We have an inexperienced chancellor who got some lovely positive press coverage when he announced a load of spending, so every week he announces a load more. We borowed 62billion in April. Every week more spending, but has he mentioned how any of it is going to be repaid? Gilts were issued this week at a negative spread, not return v inflation but at an actual negative yield. Boris needs to swallow his pride and bring back Sajid Javid or we will never get out of this mess.

The germans are demonstrating against the lockdown now and it's a growing movement. But then they are going to have to bail out the whole of Europe so they need to get their economy moving.

Don’t stockpile! Save!

What we really need now is a competent and well informed government who care about the people and have learned lessons from this pandemic, particularly in how we value people who are in the so called "low skilled" jobs.

Sadly I think this is most unlikely to happen.

Any degree of recovery will look positive on paper because it would be going up from as far at the bottom so it can’t get worst at that point (which will be in the future. We are nowhere near the bottom yet)

I think it’s fair that Redolent is asking very precise, practical questions. Sadly there are no answers to that. Instead we should perhaps take in the wider global view because what happens in most countries will have an effect in other countries relative to the UK and every other individual location. Yes, there will be shortages of certain items because delivery and processing of some prime materials, goods and food items will be reduced and delayed. But, on the other hand, if we consider what we utilise we could probably conclude that we won’t miss a lot of physical items and can live a reasonably healthy and fulfilling life with less variety of what we consume (eat, wear, drive , whatever). And we should never underestimate human creativity and drive for survival and success. Some industries will be considerably reduced, some will plateau and some (even new ones we don’t yet know about) will flourish.
We need to see beyond the inconvenience of having to queue up to buy flour which happens to be in short supply today or forever. Beyond the practical niggles. People will always find ways around these things. We need to see beyond the desire to travel the world, we need to consider the possibility that leisure activities will be somehow different - no idea in what way but I have faith that people will find other forms of entertainment reasonably quickly (for ex. Concerts might be a different experience altogether). It doesn’t have to be bad, it doesn’t have to keep us fixated on the idea of ‘the old ways’ which is what we will be referring to. The world evolves all the time, it shifts, it changes direction and, as a rule, adaptability and integration leads to better survival. Accepting and supporting change would be beneficial in terms of having a more resilient mental health.
So in that sense I am optimist about the future.
Short term, I fully expect that we will all have to tighten our belts for a good few years. Regardless of our current personal economic situation.
The UK is not unique in having had restrictions, if anything they have been quite relaxed compared to a lot of other countries. However, the UK does rely on tourism within the country and at a global level. It is also reliant on the hospitality industry. And the entertainment industry. The first two will not return to pre pandemic levels for a very, very long time. Even if the virus vanishes completely, people will be short of money available to spend on such activities so they won’t be in a position to support them. Even fashion consumerism would dip because of available funds, besides clothes production would be a more costly process. Maybe there will be more emphasis through other profitable avenues like engineering, IT even the financial sector. I have high expectations that technology will continue to evolve.
So I am optimistic about the future but mentally prepared and accepting of the fact we’ll struggle for maybe 5 years. Everywhere in the world, not just the UK.

Sadie789
if you mean the article published in the Daily Mail, I have chosen to ignore that. As entertaining as the DM is, I don't usually refer to it when I need facts.

That's not what the ACTUAL study actually say...

Yes, the economic effects of this are life-changing and our children may not forgive us. There are a lot of people out there blissfully enjoying the furlough sunshine, insisting that their children can’t possibly go back to school, who have no idea what will hit them.

The most important thing to concentrate on atm is getting London open. Financial Services is a hugely important part of our GDP and despite being recently overtaken by NY we are expected to regain the title of the world's most important financial centre come 1st Jan 2021. The most important thing for London is that we are always open for business which is why the new quarantine rule baffles me and I expect to very quickly see an exclusion for business travel.

Don’t expect the NHS to remain free at point of access in the future. The extended recession means it is no longer sustainable in its current form.
I don’t think it was sustainable even before the pandemic. It was simply coasting, swallowing lots of money and things got done through the goodwill of the people who work there.

Do you think lockdown will cause more than 50000 deaths in 3 months?

Don’t save! Spend!

Redolent: the only things worth stockpiling will be arms and ammunition.

Financial Services is a hugely important part of our GDP
London has not closed...

I really need to stop reading (and commenting) on these threads. I am at risk of redundancy and this is just making my anxiety worse!

London never closes that is the point, so how on earth can we have a 14 day quarantine for arrivals? I am expecting that to be cancelled any day for business travellers.

The point I am trying to make about London is get all of it open as quickly as possible. The sanwich shops, the coffee shops, pubs, office cleaners etc all those currently furloughed because we are all working from home. The money needs to start moving around.

Me too@dancingalong
This virus has changed the world. It will never be the same. I feel for the young who have just graduated and there will be no jobs just redundancies. This is the worst recession in 300 years. Nothing like it. Everything sector in society has been affected. Lock down can’t go on forever. There isn’t going to be a vaccine soon ( I wish there could be!) and even when there is one there won’t be enough for the whole population so elderly and high risk will get it first. There is limited production capability. If the Chinese Govt get a vaccine out first they will profit and not sell it at cost price unlike the Western pharmaceuticals who have declared they will.
There is already studies going on that reveal there is no lasting immunity to it at present so if you’ve had it once you will get it again but hopefully not so severely; it could take several years to develop immunity. So the herd immunity theory goes out of the window. We really need a vaccine and a reliable one in plentiful abundance.
Then like flu there will be new Corona virus strains that will emerge over the next few years but hopefully we will be more equipped to deal with them by spotting and tracing them at the outset unlike Etsy happened in China because the govt tried to hush it up initially and hopefully the WHO will have a reshuffle and they can get rid of the pro-China stooges that currently occupy the lead roles at the WHO.
Dealing with new viruses, these will occur as long as you have certain criteria: high density of populations; deforestation; animals living too closely with humans and in particular non domesticated farm animals so like bushmeat or exotic animals. This is what the WHO don’t wish to publicise and keep deflecting. So they know from scientific studies that the next corona virus is likely to emanate again from South East Asia primarily China, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand and possibly some parts of Africa. But this is due to the eating habits and live markets of animals and humans. For example rearing farming bats, porcupines, tigers ( oh yes Thailand Cambodia and China have govt licensed tiger farms where they capture wild tigers and then tear them in captivity for body parts etc for Chinese medicine and other primitive nonsense and these creatures paws for example are cut off whilst they are still alive) and of course dogs, cats, mice, anything that moves and has 4 legs. So until the cultural eating and farming habits in these countries change and there is no longer any trade or live markets in exotic animals, you will keep getting new corona viruses.
Sorry to be the harbinger of doom and gloom but people need to wake up and smell the coffee. We should as nation states be demanding global reparations from China. They have enough assets worldwide: seize them. They are the cause of this pandemic and intentionally tried to hide it from the rest of the world.
We really do need to boycott their products and re- establish our own domestic supply chains. Enough of the rant but please beware

I think @Branster makes loads of really good and balanced points, and I don’t find myself disagreeing with them.

However, I think it’ll be very tough on those already struggling financially as they have no headroom available to them. There are also likely to be a lot of newly unemployed people from industries that’ll take years to recover, many of whom will have outgoings based on what was previously relatively secure, in some cases well-paid, employment - if you have a mortgage, car loan, perhaps a few thousand on a credit card then adjusting to unemployment is going to be very difficult as you’re not going to be able to reduce these outgoings overnight. Even repayment holidays are just that; they’re breaks for a few months but the debt is still there and the banks/finance companies will only be tolerant to a point.

Well reparations shouldn't be too hard, we owe China about £250bn - we'll take it out of that. Unfortunately China is playing hard ball with any criticism and the Aussies are taking all the flack at the moment. Link below for those unaware.
And on that happy note I'm to bed, this is getting too much like work.

www.fxstreet.com/analysis/australias-spat-with-china-may-spell-doom-for-its-economy-and-the-aussie-202005210821