Does anyone else think things are going to be worse than most people realise?

[username108]

In terms of the global depression and the short and long term effects? From what i've been reading, I don't think this is something we have ever faced and most people think it's going to be like the 2008 recession. People keep talking about a new normal but I don't think things will ever be like they were in 2019.

More flexibility and more people working from home will be good for the environment and good for many of us on an individual level.

Not convinced about that last bit. I would hate to work from home permanently and so would dh. Already most of his colleagues are missing the social interaction.

I think we're screwed. From a selfish perspective, my kids have citizenship of an EU country and are very young (almost 2 and 5) plus dh is still working. It's looking like our plans will be changing though.

Yes things will be bad. The government will have a choice to make as to whether it will ditch its ideology in the long term. Government spending on infrastructure projects creates jobs, people spend the money they earn, more industry grows from increased consumerism and more jobs created , and so on and on - simple form of Keynesian economics and circular flow of money. Our current govt is ideologically opposed to this and wants a small state and low public spending. They are ultra right wing. Will they adapt? For those saying the government can't afford this...the initial investment reaps long term financial results for everyone, including the state as increased taxes roll in.

Yes, far worse and I knew it would the day lockdown was announced...
To me the way people seemingly gave up their freedoms was frightening and always will be.
Life will never be the same again but I’m not sure the virus was ever the problem just a convenient way to change everyone’s perception very very quickly...Zoom, local mutual aid groups, everyone on UC....A huge layer of society suddenly has not much freedom at all and must be grateful for the handouts available...Scary times but predictable too.

Yes, the economy is going to be a complete disaster. I work in the financial services sector (not banking) and we're starting to see the biggest market change since 9/11. The knock on effect to business, let alone the general public, will be fairly catastrophic.
We're trying to gear up our clients now but inevitably we're going to see a lot go out of business.

But hey let's just keep the country shut down for a few more weeks/months....sod the economy!

@wobblywibble Which sectors do you think will be most affected? You sound v knowledgeable. What impacts will Joe Bloggs see?

Why do people always predict a mass mental health issue every time some event or other makes the head lines? I know some people will be anxious about COVID but most of these same people would have been anxious about work or relationships or other issues.

@Changeyname40 I'm pretty low down the pecking order but do try and stay fairly up to date with market news as have to advise clients.

It reality it will affect everyone with pricing increases. For Joe Bloggs it may not mean too much, they'll probably just be annoyed that something else is increasing. But for business in general some increases will be huge and ultimately could cause them to go out of business. Unfortunately in the sector I work in as soon as a recession hits prices increase.

I've been here before and as soon as the top dogs start talking about change in market and preparing our clients we all know it's going to be a rough ride.

To be clear it isn't just COVID-19 that has caused this but it's the final nail in the coffin.

The sort of poverty and social dislocation which we are facing tend to lead to extreme politics, invariably of the right-wing nationalist type, which fits well with our current direction of travel, and war. Just to cheer you all up

@emcann
A few drinks tonight?

@NameChangedToProtect1

Not at all.

Just as cynical as always.

And, sadly, correct.

emmcan

You must win a lot of people over with your rhetoric.

Why do people always predict a mass mental health issue every time some event or other makes the head lines? I know some people will be anxious about COVID but most of these same people would have been anxious about work or relationships or other issues.

I think it takes a very unique person who has not felt any anxiety or worry over covid 19 either at a global or personal level over the past 10 weeks.

Why do some people seem to get off on catastrophizing. Instead of depressing yourself and everyone, just wait and see what happens. Most things are usually not as bad as you expect and if they are, you're too busy getting through them to give it a second thought.

Reported for the Savile line

Reported for the Savile line

Seriously?

"For every Covid death someone will have had vital diagnosis or treatment delayed which may result in premature death. Lockdown has seriously disabled the NHS. Peoples ill health hasn’t taken a break to make way for Covid. It is being stored up ready to overwhelm an already stretched system"

Eh? Without lockdown, hospitals could be overwhelmed with Covid, making it wose for people with other conditions.

"Not convinced about that last bit. I would hate to work from home permanently and so would dh. Already most of his colleagues are missing the social interaction."

I HATE it and so do my colleagues. It might be good for some individuals, but overall very bad for society as a whole.

Without lockdown, hospitals could be overwhelmed with Covid, making it wose for people with other conditions

What could be worse than an untreated aggressive cancer?

"I know some people will be anxious about COVID but most of these same people would have been anxious about work or relationships or other issues."

There are mental health issues caused by lockdown as well - loneliness and depression from lack of human contact, for example.

"What could be worse than an untreated aggressive cancer?"

More untreated cancers?
Cancer treatment is supposed to still be going ahead, although I know it's not always.

In the medium term, I’m reasonably optimistic.

We’ll be heavily in debt but it’ll be paid off long term. How anybody could label the Gov economically far right is beyond me, they are left. Not hard left, but def left of centre. Massive state intervention at the moment.

This is an ideal time to rethink our economy to get away from it being services dominated. A lot of jobs without real substance out there that don’t produce much. Self employed HR consultants and the like? Give me a break.

We’ve probably all had a lesson on what the really important vocations & industries are.

Political cliche of the last 40 years or so since Thatcher but I’d like to see a resurgence in UK manufacturing. Let’s start with our own PPE, our own tests & reagents so we are better prepared for the next pandemic. Globalisation has completely failed us in this situation! Invest in green tech. We can do it!

Get some decent trade deals done, hopefully the bollock tennis ends between us and the EU & we get a Canada FTA or similar.

Glass half full here.

I think it will be much worse than 2008, the final cost in both lives and money. It worries me where the money will come from given that the government has said it doesn’t want further austerity and tax rises.

Money will be borrowed, interest rates are obviously v low. This is a lot of debt no doubt. Still not as big as after WW2 though.

the government has said it doesn’t want further austerity and tax rises

It’s going to have to be one or the other. Quite apart from the cost of lockdown, the cost of all the lost jobs when the furlough scheme ends are going to be astronomical. I reckon the tax hikes will be eye watering. And, for once, they’re going to have to land on the highest paid. There’s always been an argument that they’d leave the country but that doesn’t apply now because there’s nowhere that isn’t equally fucked for them to go. There are people going to foodbanks in Mercs in the US.