Does anyone else think things are going to be worse than most people realise?

[username108]

In terms of the global depression and the short and long term effects? From what i've been reading, I don't think this is something we have ever faced and most people think it's going to be like the 2008 recession. People keep talking about a new normal but I don't think things will ever be like they were in 2019.

I’m really worried about this.

Can anyone link to any good/informative articles about the coming recession? I’m trying to read up as much as I can, but The Guardian seems to be my main source of info.

@woodpidgeons I hear you - are you in a situation you can change to get out of reliance on UC? Are you able to work?

It will be very bad because there is a huge mountain of debt to pay back, but the economy will reshape and society will change, and this can bring some positives. We have the best government for that task but I am far from convinced that even they are up to it. I hope that the lessons to be learned are learned more clearly than they were after the 2008 crisis. It's the fudging of fact that might do the most damage for the longest. We'll all have to learn to live with personal responsibility to fight COVID (self-shielding if vulnerable) and accept some risk, until treatments/vaccines improve.

We have the best government for that task

Are you serious? Or living in a parallel universe? Every single decision this government has made in the last three months has made matters worse. Why on earth would we think they’d be any better at dealing with the economic fallout?

@eeehbyegum unfortunately I'm unable to work due to illness, but hopefully will be at some point after treatment. Even when I worked full time I still had to rely on some UC though, cause minimum wage cannot cover the cost of living with Dependents and no partner.

So much anxiety here. If you can afford to, still have a job in a more robust sector then sure you need to save a bit extra but but also carry on spending. I am doing this myself. If everyone freaks out at the DOOM and cuts back (those who aren’t struggling) then a depression is guaranteed. Self-fulfilling prophecy! Just be wise about it.

Agree with you Megan

Yep. We should have all had Covid parties infected ourselves, overfilled the NHS and not been able to access any medical care and died but apart from the sudden drop in manpower due to sickness (a large proportion of mildly I'll people are ill for weeks and weeks) and bereavement leave things probably would have lumped along to some extent. We would have maybe had to have made creations and burials but at least life would have carried on ok for the living.
A kind of brutal natural selection.
Plan B is we'll all now be so skint, miserable and stressed a large number will opt for suicide.

Both choices were bleak.

Agree with PPs to keep spending IF you are able.

We rarely go to restaurants but will make a point to when they open up again.

As to how to prepare (NOT stockpile) check out the preppers section. Lots of great advice for all budgets.

By being prepared, my family rarely needed to shop during lockdown, leaving everything for other people. Not selfish at all.

I personally don't think the economy was in a great place to start with.

The issues we have now:

unemployment
social distancing making experiences less enjoyable perhaps affecting take up
anxiety about catching Covid
people who still have jobs but having got used to having "extra money" not wanting to "waste it" again.
anxiety about spending as want more savings to offset economic pain.
future tax rises
potentially a lot more people wfh

@oralengineer
Covid kills? So does cancer, heart disease, stroke, meningitis, flu, old age etc, etc, all of which are now contributing to more deaths daily than Covid but we seem to be ignoring them

Many people would have died with those conditions with or without the lockdown.

I have Crohn’s and have avoided getting required blood tests to monitor my immune suppression before the lockdown came into place. It’s not the lockdown stopping me it’s the fear of catching the virus.

Of course. Add Brexit into the mix and we'll be stuffed for some time to come. Looking forward to that chlorinated chicken though, it will save us having to drink our own bleach alongside our antiquated malaria tablets as advocated by Mr President

Highest death rate per capita?

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ says Sweden is number 8 and UK is number 6 (only just behind Italy).
What am I missing?

They had the highest death rate briefly last week (although it has been falling). But the UK is back on top now.

They haven't got the highest total numbers of death per capita.

The big point about Sweden is that Ferguson predicted that they would they exponential growth and overwhelmed medical services without lockdown. This simply has not happened. Their schools are still open for up to age 16 and have been throughout without social distancing. Teachers have not died and there has not been the disaster predicted. Their infections and deaths are declining, suggesting R is also below 1 there even though all primary and most of secondary is fully open.

Instead - and just like here - the epidemic is mainly in care homes where the very vulnerable are dying months before their time. It is obviously sad but no different from here and frankly very very far from the predictions made.

Despite no lockdown, Sweden’s deaths peaked around the same time as here and are on a steady downward trajectory, slowed by the care home outbreaks.

So yes, that would be a bloody good model to follow.

I work in the debt industry. There are going to be some very bad times a head. Most people only have about three months of serious cash flow problems before their lives seriously hits a brick wall.

So many people have already been laid off and even though the FCA have recommended that credit companies give a few month grace - they will want their money back sooner than later.

You will have no idea of how many people before lock down where already looking for debt help and advice in the new year it’s going to be deluged.

Bailiffs are going to be a common sight. People going bankrupt and not paying their creditors what they owe causing their creditors to have serious finance issues them selves. When I talk about creditors I don’t mean massive loan companies I mean regular business that allow clients to take stock before it’s been paid for.

There will be suicides due to severe depression at losing their business/jobs/homes/Families. Money worries cause arguments and resentments which split families up.

I’ve spoken to many people who were severely in debt and had thoughts of killing them selves. It’s a going to be a really real problem.

My friends husband is a airline pilot. His air line is about to go bust. Over night they have had to pull their kids out of private school and are having to put the house on the market for a smaller one because he can’t just go be a captain at another airline.

Now if this was just ordinary Joe bloggs who had a regular office job or owned a small cafe they could lose their house and end up in emergency accommodation - which is already like finding hens teeth.

So it irritates me when I see people calling for no school and no return back to work. These people really have no idea what’s around the corner from them.

I am preparing for very hard times. Worrying indeed.

It’s going to be hard, of course. If we hadn’t had a lockdown the problems may have been different but it would have been worse in some ways. Not so bad in others. It is what it is.

So it irritates me when I see people calling for no school and no return back to work. These people really have no idea what’s around the corner from them.

Interesting post @Spillinteas, thanks.

I agree, people have no idea of the scale of the disaster that awaits them. To be fair it's a mixture of stupidity, and the fact that political leaders should have spelt out the consequences of the strategy that we've adopted. There will be a huge amount of anger I would guess, and some dire political consequences too.

People don't understand it because on average they're much better off financially because of the lockdown.

I read an article that likened this period to the period to where the water recedes before a tsunami - apparently people find it interesting, they stop to examine the seafloor.

Summerflowers my point was that our average daily death rate is around 1500. This underlying death rate will not have altered much during lockdown and according to some figures actually has increased ( unexplained excess deaths). These will have been due to lockdown where people are too scared to seek treatment. They are due to lockdown not Covid. We are not hearing anything about these excess deaths through the media. On an average day pre-Covid the media were more than happy to point the finger at NHS failings for a potentially preventable death. Only 5 months ago there were daily reports of A&E depts overflowing. Now these deaths are somehow collateral damage and no longer important because they don’t involve Covid.

@MarginalGain so people should be saving/not spending for when the tsunami hits?

I think the main difference with Sweden is that they have a lot more single person households than the UK, so less family transmission.

I don't know what the answer is though, and I don't have much faith in our Government. People in Spain/France/Germany/Italy seem to trust theirs more (going on what I've seen in the media and from speaking to European friends and relatives).

Oh do stop scaremongering. You should be ashamed of yourself

I am not sure I actually believe that but it was a very popular admonition when people were warning about the possibility of lockdown for coronavirus and food and medical supply problems because of Brexit. I personally.think the latter is inevitable especially now but no point worrying over spilt milk
.. and to the poster surprised at questions about stockpiling , I strongly advise people to get a stockpile of food and supplies in, gradually and not in a panic in time for Brexit- at the end of the year

As to the question of recession. Yes it will be bad but most people will come.out.of it ok. Just like for Covid

No. The recession will be temporary.

It's not the same as earlier recessions, this one was created for a reason and employment and spending can be turned back on.

To be fair it's a mixture of stupidity, and the fact that political leaders should have spelt out the consequences of the strategy that we've adopted.

It was clear from day 1. It's amusing that the same people who call others "stupid" are only waking up because they happen to be bored.