Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

I wish we'd had the Irish PM as our leader in all of this.

That's an interesting question, disappointed101

Did we lock down earlier than Italy at same stage? I can't remember amongst all the facts and figures. I know we dithered initially.

No. Italy locked down 8/3 in the north west and 10/3 everywhere else.

How are the news outlets talking about the UK figures? Because when Italy was going through the hell that the UK is now, all my friends and relatives there were contacting me, horrified, worried etc. But apart from the 2 "serious" Corona threads on here (this one and the graphs one) people in the UK on my fB etc don't seem nearly as concerned as we were when our figures were like that.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says

The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

“While we are putting more weight on reactivation as the possible cause, we are conducting a comprehensive study on this,” Jeong said. “There have been many cases when a patient during treatment will test negative one day and positive another.”

central new york is insanely densely populated and pollution is also very high.

Appreciate Leo saying this

twitter.com/rtenews/status/1248637471027535874

@CharlieTangoBanana then she needs to stay at SILs! Don’t beat yourself up about why she is being so selfish, I’m sure you brought up all your dc the same. She will probably look back one day when she is more mature and feel very sorry for behaving in a way that added to the pressure for her family.

Belle agree.

Saw this on another thread thanks RTB

It shows we don't know enough yet.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

but: are they ill? are they shedding the virus?

I guess it's too early to know

@TheCanterburyWhales It takes up most of the tv news and newspaper headlines. With my friends and colleagues we speak about it but then go back to dealing with everyday life. We're in London and most people I know have been affected or know someone who has but I find it strange how accepting we are and keep carrying on. I don't suppose we can do much else. I remember thinking of first China and then Italy and thinking how horrendous it was but now it's here I find it weird that we seem to be carrying on as if it's not happening. There was earlier on in my social groups the joke memes and a touch of gallows humour but I've not seen as much the last week.

Does anyone know if those people who it may be reactivating in again, do they become ill again or just that it shows up in testing?

If it reactivates or you dont build up immunity then this truly is the virus from hell!!
Either of those mean there is no point shielding.
It wouldn't surprise me if it reactivates.
Because in i think october dd2 got ill (random vomit for 1 day)
Then again a few weeks later.
Then mid dec got a fever lethargy cough. Which i then got but felt awful absolutely chills exhausted and phlegmy.
Then jan sick again. (We started to suspect the swimming pool.
Then end feb fever and vomit then about a week later cough.

Now she always has been a bit of a vomiter but last year 18/19 had not 1 day off preschool.
19/20 you can appreciate she had a lot (when at 4yo you would have expected her to have less illness. )
And none of the vomitting led to any other person being sick (i think 5 instances).
Anyway i did get a fever after her last illness (9/02) breathlessness (3w) and then that went straight into sore throat and cough. And yet we havent been out... As ive said before could be food delivery or post etc.

But if this virus keeps going around will it make people progressively more ill? Will it hit the ones who ended up in icu and kill them anyway. If so theres no point trying to save people !
Or are these the mildly ill people who are just not making enough antibodies or havent made enough antibodies because their bodies havent fimished fighting it.

The issue will the gov exit strategies is
20-30yo 630 might die but how many more are risking long term lung issues, neurological issues.

Would a vax even stop something flaring back up?

Hmm i know sars killed more of the hosts but surely that would have been the same about it coming back again and that didnt.

Seems more likely they need to wait a certain number of weeks before a person is genuinely clear of the virus. Maybe each flare up gets taken care of by the immune system.

MrsH- thanks. Yes, I think that was like us when we were right in the eye of the storm. It was almost calmer being in it than looking on.
Italian PM just announced various economic measures and said that bookshops and stationers can reopen and that woodcutters can go back to work. Seems spectacularly arbitrary.

The PM has just

I've just been reading through some of the SAGE minutes on the effects of closing schools and large gatherings.

post.parliament.uk/analysis/covid-19-school-closures-and-mass-gatherings/

I'm really concerned by the fact that they discuss the effects in terms of "delay" of the peak.

This is something I do not understand at all. Or rather, I think I DO understand, and I think all this talk about "delaying the peak" is complete bollocks.

In Wuhan, in Italy, in France, in Spain and hopefully in the UK, the peak occurs a set amount of time following lockdown.

So how do social distancing measures "delay" the peak? They CREATE the peak. They force it to occur sooner, by cutting off the oxygen to the fire and limiting the size it can reach.

Have I got this wrong? Because either I'm totally wrong (and so is the data coming in from actual reality all over the world) or the models our government is relying on are totally wrong.

Can anyone show me where I am misinterpreting this?

I agree with your previous post @TheCanterburyWhales - in fact I am still getting messages from friends in London commiserating with me for the terrible situation where I am (and actually my area is doing ok).

In terms of lockdowns, Italy (and France, Spain etc) is much stricter, so I think that has an impact on perception of the crisis (as well on the transmission statistics of course).

Conte (Italian PM) naming and shaming Salvini and Meloni and all the EU bickering definitely makes it feel like normality is returning!

It's possible that it could be reactivating in some people. If it is that terrifies me.

It has mutations which make it attack the same enzymes that HIV attacks. I think that's why they are trying HIV drugs.

I think that's why they are trying HIV drugs.

Not necessarily. They're also experimenting with anti-malarial prophylactics. That doesn't mean that it's a parasite spread my mosquitoes, does it?

Not enough is known about it as yet.

I'm really concerned by the fact that they discuss the effects in terms of "delay" of the peak.

Nellodee maybe they mean the peak in terms of the 500k without intervention. I am not sure. Like a delay to the peak that would have been.

Agree we are creating a false peak. I heard Jenny Harries say about pushing the peak to the right but aren't we moving it to the left. So it's actually early.

I don't understand either.

We are pushing the peak to the right if you consider overall progression to get to that 80% immune - this is one small foothill artificial peak. There will be more in the mountain range as they lockdown and release repeatedly.
Or that's my understanding

Do they say delay or reduce the peak? The measures taken are to reduce the peak surely? The NHS does not become overwhelmed and deals with cases from this wave. Then as restrictions lift in a controlled manner the NHS continues to deal with a new wave of cases? That's the only way I see it until a vaccine is available. As it is so new I can only see this as our future.

@nellodee share your befuddlement. I feel the whole strategy has been misguided from the beginning & with obfuscation built in. our daily numbers, for a start - how can we talk about delaying a peak when the daily numbers are such a random bag of dates? There’s no proper data - at least none that is being shared with the public.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-52248927

And there is no 80% immune or 60% immune!!! It’s not influenza, it’s a Coronavirus, we do not have long term immunity to them & all the studies I’ve seen, bar the small promising sample from Germany, show there’s v little evidence of antibodies. This has been managed so badly.

In reducing the peak, it also delays it.

refraction. Oh that's so sad. And very very scary - I'm also a science teacher, it could be me, it could be any of us. I'm scared I will leave my children motherless