Another 260 confirmed dead still not nearly on the trajectory of Italy or Spain ?

[Bubblebu]

Too early to tell??

The maths mean that death rates will take at least 3 weeks from lock down to start to stabilise.

2-14 day incubation period. Most start symptoms day 5-7. Most serious symptoms don't start showing until about day 7-10. Some people won't be seriously ill until after more than 3 weeks after they were exposed. Most deaths won't occur until later (after hospital treatment has been tried and failed). Some people are dying after 2 weeks on ventilators. People who got it last weekend, probably won't be going on ventilators for another week or two. Their deaths may not be for another month.

It is going to get worse, we are waiting for it to hit full throttle still

But, if most of us do as we’re told, it should start to slow in a couple of months

There really are some people loving this drama who will be secretly disappointed if it turns out better than expected, aren't there? yes.

I wish people would listen to the experts instead of scaremongering. We are on nowhere near the same trajectory as Spain or Italy.

The latest figures show a peak expected in the next week or two and then a fall from there. There will be less than 6000 deaths in total.

The new paper, which incorporates evidence from the effects of social distancing in China and assumes that Britain will follow a similar path, suggests this will be achieved. It estimates that at its peak Britain will experience more than 250 deaths a day, far fewer than the 1,300 a day expected in Italy.

The scientists’ best guess for the total number of deaths is 5,700 in Britain, compared with fewer than 4,000 in China. They expect 28,000 deaths in Italy and that this will be overtaken by Spain, which on its present trajectory could suffer 46,000.

@Yolo2 that article makes very interesting reading, but I notice it doesn’t suggest any other strategies.

I still think the comparison with seasonal flu is inappropriate. We are still in the early stages of the epidemic in this country and the NHS is already struggling far worse than a normal flu season.

Is there any reason why we wouldn't be on the same trajectory as Italy or Spain?

Stormy- I think today’s numbers show that their analysis was flawed. They thought that at peak we would be around 250 deaths per day but we already exceeded that number today. I refuse to trust any scientist that thinks we’ve already hit our peak. And saying that we are nowhere near Italy’s trajectory flies in the face of the data. See this graph from the bbc article posted above and tell me that we are “nowhere near” Italy. Spain is on a worse trajectory than either us or Italy, admittedly.

OhTheRoses I've no idea. My father died in January, he hadn't seen a doctor for three months prior to that. The death was referred to Coroner but they didn't do a PM.

I think it's also true that we haven't counted those with mild/moderate symptoms and those who have recovered. Testing or not testing skews the statistics for different countries.

I think the fact that the hospitals are heaving despite putting all the extra beds aside just for CV, that this is not just 'the usual deaths for March/April. I dont think they would be buying all those ventilators if they didnt need to.

What the exact figures are is quite moot to be honest. There is a virus out there thats putting an awful lot of people into hospital, and killing many. And The numbers are getting bigger.

This article helps put things in perspective www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

We are in complete lockdown too...
Are you talking about the UK? The UK is not on a strict lockdown like Italy although that might be an option if it is shown to get results.

Ireland shut down schools, banned gatherings on March 12. 14 days later their deaths rose so the window of infection does seem accurate.

34% increase but as we don't test in the community and most people don't die in hospital, these figures seem rather suspect, around 2.5 to 3k people per day die in the UK in the winter months, does anyone look at excess deaths per day?

Also, given we have europe's most open borders both EU and RoW, especially students, why are we behind Italy Spain?

we cant follow both the trajectory of Spain and Italy because they are different. We have always been closely following Italy thankfully not Spains which is worse (and one which New York is following)

I think the hardest thing to come to terms with is the only way now is through, that is what Pandemics are, we cant beat it we can only try and get through it.

@Siameasy, that made me 😂😂

re patriating British people back from Peru....
Hmm.

Better Peru than USA methinks.

Does anyone trust China’s latest figures? I don’t, but I’m generally a suspicious person anyway.

GemmaTellerMorrow Sat 28-Mar-20 15:44:43
You don't have to have a PM if you haven't seen a doctor for two weeks prior to death, that is incorrect. What should happen is that the doctor refers to Coroner and then they decide if a PM is necessary.

That's why I asked it as a question, not as fact!

Yolo2

The issue with that article is that he doesn’t suggest how health services might expand to cope with the numbers needing urgent care on top of their usual caseloads.

Italy has an excellent healthcare service. They are totally overwhelmed.

Countries have to do something drastic to spread out the infections - plus remember that certainly in Northern Europe, this is on top of peak seasonal flu time, so services are already overstretched.

Does anyone know, yesterday's figures included post mortem figures from the past for the first time, do today's figures do that as well?

Innitogether I’m more concerned about Russia’s figures to be honest, and North Korea. They won’t admit to any weakness and the poorest in the population (aka the vast majority) are going to suffer dreadfully.

I think it's still too early to tell, as there is such variation within the UK. In Wales, Aneurin Bevan health board (which borders England) is a hotspot. In England, London is the obvious hotspot as is the midlands I think?

All we can do is wait and see and hope. And stay at home.

@CaveMum, true, but expected unfortunately