Another 260 confirmed dead still not nearly on the trajectory of Italy or Spain ?

[Bubblebu]

Too early to tell??

I am concerned about China's figures, not leat because they have people who were previously testing positive, who have since tested negative and now positive again. Now either the tests were duff, there is no natural immunity after having it once or the virus has mutated - given they are believed to be the origin of the virus. But I can find very little on this because of course china, who aren't well known for sharing information, are insistent that their infection rate is dropping and economically, they will need that rate to be seen to be dropping so they can continue with their manufacturing and worldwide shipping.

I am also concerned because we know lots of DH's colleagues who are now being told 'you more than likely have covid-19' but because they are not so poorly that they are being hospitalised, they are not being included in figures until they get to the point that they are admitted, which not all of them are of course. Some are just about hanging on at home from reports. They work in a residential setting and they have a minimum of 1 confirmed (hospitalised) 1 suspected (underlying health conditions) in dh's area. The spread there has started and is increasing so I have noted when DH came into contact with it as they simply aren't able to send everyone off for a week now. They are having to treat it as the NHS contact workers are, with the same lack of PPE. So dh comes out, strips and showers before he leaves work, getting into clean clothes and we launder as soon as he gets home. Nothing he uses at work comes into the house. And of course, we are doing this, but I am certain there will be an awful lot of people who haven't thought of this and it won't be enforced. I can easily see that the numbers will rise massively in the next 7-14 days.

There really are some people loving this drama who will be secretly disappointed if it turns out better than expected, aren't there?

I read this morning, can’t remember where as I’ve read so many things that in Italy they are counting anyone that dies now regardless of from what as having dies from the virus.
How true that is I have no idea.
Also, a young adult unfortunatel tragically died last week and it was reported in the national newspapers that it was from the virus, today it’s been reported that they died of a heart attack and not the virus at all.

----

Yes, the coroner got it wrong - she tested negative for the virus but he nevertheless thought the symptoms matched (?).

There was a thread on this yesterday, someone wrote earnestly 'I believe the coroner'.

I just googled the girl's name and the article about this has been archived on the Guardian website.

There is too much variation in testing regimes and even which deaths are recorded as COVID deaths to put too much faith in comparisons.

Can you link marginalgains?

Sorry link what?

I take some comfort from this article that there appears to be a natural “lifespan” to each outbreak.

www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

7news.com.au/lifestyle/healthmedicine/china-reports-deeply-disturbing-coronavirus-development-c-765460. I can't find any UK news reports so I am hoping this is something and nothing, but I suspect it's only a matter of time.

North Korea is essentially a closed country so may not have imported it. We don’t know.

I read that in a bad year for flu deaths we have 16-19,000 people die. Often 8,500 is quoted but that’s an average year. I too would like to see how flu deaths went this winter because it’s been seriously under reported. I didn’t see queues of ambulances on the news or shocked reports of deaths. So it would be interesting to have some idea if this virus is killing people that would have died in a bad flu year.

There really are some people loving this drama who will be secretly disappointed if it turns out better than expected, aren't there?

Sadly, yes
A very dear friend's being demented her MIL who did a few years of hospital admin after leaving school ... only now it's "I worked in medicine!!" and "I know top doctors!!" followed by yet another worst case scenario
It's really, really not helpful

We did our lock down at exactly the same point as Italy in terms of confirmed numbers and deaths. This came later in the full cycle than Italy because we had our first diagnosis only 24 hour after they did, but did not have any associated mortality for several weeks. From what I understand, Italy started with a regional quarantine model like China, but quickly moved to a national model after taking advice based on scientific modelling. Britain's polices are based on advice from the same sort of modelling. We just have to hope that the experts are right.

China almost certainly has a far bigger problem than is officially recorded. It is a country of huge contrasts. Extraordinarily modern cities and burgeoning wealth that enables people to travel internationally exists alongside extreme poverty. There is a large itinerant workforce in China. Some in the construction and service industries living far away from their kids, others do things like bit coin mining in the backs of vans and move to where the electricity is cheapest. Everyone travelled a lot of Chinese New Year. The idea that this virus was contained in Hubei without having much impact on the rest of the country is inconceivable when you look at its impact on the rest of the world.

North Korea does a lot of trade with China. The likelihood of there being no cases at all is very low.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/chloe-middleton-death-21-year-old-not-recorded-nhs-covid-19-related

Article mentioned earlier

And repatriating british citizens from Peru is a priority at the same time as buying ventilators (at massive cost). Weird.

Abraid2 another poster was stating it as fact, not as a question.

Thanks

Its been removed!

Beware of comparing stats from other countries, it wont help

I guess if you were stuck in Peru then it would be a priority.

@GemmaTellerMorrow @OhTheRoses

You don't have to have a PM if you haven't seen a doctor for two weeks prior to death, that is incorrect. What should happen is that the doctor refers to Coroner and then they decide if a PM is necessary.

When my mum died, having not seen a doctor lately, the GP rang and asked me if I wanted a postmortem done. I said no. She was elderly and though she'd not been ill recently had a documented heart condition. I didn't see what good it would do after the fact and the GP agreed. Can't remember what happened with the coroner but they may have been the one to say ask me what I wanted to happen. So a PM isn't essential in those circumstances.

they only announce the result when the family agrees i heard

Its been removed!

I know. Weird.

But I think this might be because inexplicably her family has received a lot of abuse (I've no idea why, someone mentioned this on the MN thread yesterday).

A cruel twist for them all around.

who said that lockdown worked for China because they did it so quickly;

Given the state of Europe and the USA, I didn't think there was anyone left that actually believes China's CV numbers.

Italy hasn't reached either peak contagion or peak deaths yet and isn't expected to for about another 10 days. The rates of infection are slowing though. Obviously, the number of deaths rises after the number of those infected slows as people die approx 10 days after being infected.

Just to clarify. The rules regarding certification of death are being relaxed. We can certify someone who dies at home as having died of Covid 19 if we are reasonably certain. Unfortunately this will be the case when people die in care homes etc.
Not having seen a doctor within 14 days has never automatically necessitated a PM. If possible a death cert will be issued following a conversation with the coroner.
The last thing they will want to be doing at the moment is carrying out PMs on people who have died of Covid 19

it is obvious.
It is because for people less well off the Government will not care whatsoever at all what happens to them.