Another 260 confirmed dead still not nearly on the trajectory of Italy or Spain ?

[Bubblebu]

Too early to tell??

That link doesn't work @feelingverylazytoday. Could you post it again please? I'd be interested to read it

I don’t understand how Italy’s figures haven’t dropped yet.

The rates of contagion have dropped. The death rate takes a while to catch up because there are often a few weeks between catching the virus and dying from it.

Hi, all. Moving this to the Coronavirus topic now.

mummyoflittledragon

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

Only people who have tested positive for coronavirus and subsequently have died are counted in the deaths. But only people admitted to hospital are tested. Therefore there may be community deaths not counted.

As the govs own website says
As of 9am on 28 March 2020, a total of 120,776 people have been tested, of which 103,687 were confirmed negative and 17,089 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March 2020, 1,019 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results.

I read this morning, can’t remember where as I’ve read so many things that in Italy they are counting anyone that dies now regardless of from what as having dies from the virus.
How true that is I have no idea.
Also, a young adult unfortunately tragically died last week and it was reported in the national newspapers that it was from the virus, today it’s been reported that they died of a heart attack and not the virus at all.
I do now wonder myself how many deaths being reported as being from the virus are actually from other reason.
It is all so heartbreaking and terrible.

What we don't know is how many people who have died were gravely ill with other conditions and reaching the end of their time. Only when we have that can this begin to be quantified.

Our population is younger than in Spain or Italy and we have fewer intergenerational households and a lower proportion of regular, heavy smokers.

Agree that anyone who dies without seeing a dr in the prwvious two weeks has a post-mortem. Also if we were testing more, the percentage rate of deaths to csses wpuld be lower which would look far more positive.

I reckon 2000 by Tues/Weds, 4000 by Fri/Sat, 8000 tops by Holy week and by then we'll be two weeks into "lockdown" and the numbers will flatten or tail off. Hopefully we'll all be trickling back to work by late April.

The gov statistics themselves state that the number of deaths are only those hospitalised who tested positive. Those who die at home aren’t being included

Check the department of health’s Twitter and the info they release

We'll never know as hardly any testing been done.
It could be hundreds of thousands for all we know.

Unlike Italy and Spain, we are not on full lockdown, our parks and open spaces have been busy with people, shops packed, tube like a sardine can. There is a 3-4 week or more delay between the infection and the death figures. There are still people from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who are critically ill. We didn't follow the Chinese and South Korean method of lots of testing and hard lockdown. We are a ticking time bomb.

the death rate may wellbe inaccurate but so are all cases of covid because noones being tested at home

This is a very interesting read www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

A poster on the stats thread (sorry i can’t remember their name) pointed out that the average number of deaths per week for this time of year is 11,000. When those figures are collated and released it should be pretty simple to extrapolate how many deaths in the community may have been missed if it’s a significant number.

Don’t forget people will still be dying of the things they usually die from.

You don't have to have a PM if you haven't seen a doctor for two weeks prior to death, that is incorrect. What should happen is that the doctor refers to Coroner and then they decide if a PM is necessary.

What I read earlier is that deaths will be recorded as CVirus if the person tested positive, however that doesn't mean that the cause of death was actually from having the virus, just that they had the virus at the time of death. That could skew the figures somewhat.

Is that true? How do you know that? That's scary if it's TRUE

ScaremongeringScare.com

There really are some people loving this drama who will be secretly disappointed if it turns out better than expected, aren't there?

What are the criteria for getting tested? If 120k were tested was this 120k hospital admissions? If so, say 17k out of 120k - the vast majority-103k-who were admitted to hospital were suffering with something else.

@Yolo2 i don't thibk that says anything we don't already know. thats one of the key stated aims of the additional testing the uk wants to introduce.

Unfortunately we are on the same trajectory, approximately 2 weeks behind so likely to extend lockdown and possibly make it stricter as a lot of people are too stupid to follow it

Just to point out that what I said is a very basic, less detailed version of the article @Yolo2 posted the link to which is very interesting and really puts a perspective on the media reporting at the moment.

There really are some people loving this drama who will be secretly disappointed if it turns out better than expected, aren't there?

God yeah 100%.
Local mums on SM: “we r isolating as my kid has GOT IT”
Others: OMG HUN X X X
Me: probably got normal childhood infection
Them: OMG you’re pissing on my attention seeking parade we hate you

Colleagues parents flying home from Spain to UK on 1st. Can't believe they are still letting people in !!!

@yolo2 thank you for sharing that article. Very interesting.

And how often do coroners say a pm isn't required gemma? When my father died (just out of remission from AML and had a cerebral haemmorage at home), the hospital, the police and our funeral directors all advised a pm would be required because he hadn't been reviewed by a dr for over two weeks, despite being reviewed by the ontology nurses. I know because I was horrified and questioned it from a resource perspective.

@TARSCOUT tbf at the moment it’s pissing in the ocean isn’t it? I would expect much tighter restrictions when our numbers fall and isolation and distancing rules are relaxed.