Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

Wonder how long before we do anything beyond advising pensioners not to go on a cruise

I find it hard to believe we will be in the same position at the end of next week. Especially if parents do start pulling kids from schools and this explodes in the way we expect it will. Current position will be untenable.

I’m pretty fascinated by the stance the government is taking, from a strategic point of view. It’s risky because it goes against what many of the other countries are doing, and therefore runs the risk of causing lack of faith, but I also think it’s very sensible. I’m quietly admiring the balls it takes, if I’m honest.

On an individual level people will all respond differently. Some people don’t seem to give a crap and others are in a state of panic. It’s the government’s job to ignore the noise and look at a variety of factors that all influence our lives and the life of the country in general, both now and in the longer term, and to make a decision based on what they believe causes the least damage, however they define the word.

Frankly, it’s a thankless task. I think they’re going about it without being too reactionary, which has to be a good thing.

"meh, tracking the numbers ain't really important" message

Because if we don't track how many are getting it, then the numbers will look better than those other countries and we can claim that our special science approach works. But we mustn't explicitly say why, so instead we'll say that our special science also specially does not need data.

The old guy virologist /epidemiologist from John Hopkins on ch4news was saying he reckons they'll have to think again if there's another doubling in 4 days.

He said that would show the measures aren't working.

"I'd like to see the modelling that really says that people are going to tire of social distancing in a national emergency of this nature."

"The evidence from around the world is that countries which have acted earlier on social distancing have had more success."

Jeremy Hunt

OP, I’m not putting ‘blind faith’ in anyone

I’m looking at the situation pragmatically

The virus is here to stay and there’s currently no cure

I see no point in wasting resources on testing further to validate actual numbers

Resources need to be used where they can actually make a difference

I also see no point in waiting for the government to issue instructions that the majority of people will object to because trey don’t like being told what to do

Do what you feel you need to and accept it’s going to come at a price

@ofwarren thanks for all your effort on these threads. I’ve been following the issue since I saw the early reports coming out of China in January & this thread was v helpful source of additional info & context.

Writers

If anyone else admires Boris' balls I'm going to scream. I'd rather not think about them.

Sorry if this has already been asked but I really don’t get it.

If we stretch out the peak then it’s helps the NHS to deal with cases? But how excalty are we doing this

I’ve seen this chart and surely we are the red line and not the blue line?

I’m not expert but I can’t get my brain around this

Well it would be a good thing if this virus wasn’t time critical, which it is.

There is a LOT of sense in, for example, rolling lockdowns or restricting travel between areas in the U.K. now to slow the spread and reduce the pressure on the NHS which would result in fewer deaths.

By the time it reaches critical mass in the NHS, and they do institute lockdowns, there are already tens of thousands of infected people still to get ill (in about 10 days) who will them hit the services. They need to act sooner rather than later to flatten the peak enough for services to cope.

The Arsenal manager has tested positive for CV

The kids' schools are taking handwashing really seriously - start of the day, before and after playtimes and lunchtimes and before hometimes.

hollow laugh

My teenagers tell me that handwashing has not been mentioned at all in their school (secondary - about 1400 pupils). There are less than 10 hand basins split between two girls toilet rooms, and no hand gel.

So.

^and no soap

Off the top of my head:

Italy
Denmark
Ireland
Greece
France
Norway
Lithuania
Latvia
Moldova
Austria
Czech Republic
UAE
Belgium
China
Iran
Pakistan
India
South Korea
Japan
Many USA states
Many Australian states
Areas of South America that I can't remember

All wrong are they?
Just us, fucking little Britain with its own brand of special science that means we don't need to close schools.
Honestly?

What happens when China and Italy come out of lockdown is an unknown. It has to be.

@fezzesarecool
We are not
Hth

It looks insane put like that ofwarren

Paying people basic income during this period would actually stimulate the economy, not harm it.

Maybe this would have been a brilliant time to trial that thing - I can't remember what it is called - where everyone gets paid a basic living "wage" by the government....

@Bearbehind

No one has any definitive answers here

Dr Bruce Aylward, whom headed the Who-China joint mission was entirely definitive.

As I’m heading bedwards I shall have to paraphrase: how governments react will directly affect how many people die unnecessarily (you can hear his exact words in his press briefing on YouTube - along with the very clear data and science behind their recommendations - but that was the jist).

fezzes that was to a previous poster but you are absolutely right. There is not much effort being put in to spreading the peak as far as I can see.

I think they are going for the short sharp shock approach. Ie let between 1-4% of the affected population die. Wonder if they’ll lie about the numbers of deaths as well as the number of cases.

Italy and France are further along than us.

Germany is not on your list.

Fezze

We haven't got going much up the curve.

The surge is yet to come

. Some other graphs we are seeing are on a different scale so it looks steep like the surge on your graph.

Imagine we are presently at the beginning of both curves.

Busy day, just having a catch up now

@MangePasTesOnglesVilain but of course there will be doubling in another four days, we’re at beginning of exponential growth curve!!! (Sorry, not getting at you but at the person you quoted!!)
whatever out govt does now, we won’t feel the impact for several weeks. It isn’t a tap you can turn on & off. It’s like seeing the light from a star - we only see the effect later. And every single day we delay now, means more cases, more deaths, more trauma & even those who recover can be permanently compromised - they know this and yet still nothing.
Sorry, I have to leave this thread now. Not getting at anyone, just feeling very let down by our govt (and god knows, my expectations were already pretty low)

The old guy virologist /epidemiologist from John Hopkins on ch4news was saying he reckons they'll have to think again if there's another doubling in 4 days.He said that would show the measures aren't working.

But someone has said on here this evening that the government are planning to change how they test and rather than increasing tests from 1500 to 10000 a day as was discussed earlier in the week, they will instead be reducing them and limiting them to just people who are very ill/presented at hospital.

That will show that the measures are wonderfully successful and are working brilliantly.

It’s almost like there is an agenda and Boris wants schools to stay open at any cost...