Worried about coronavirus thread 23

[ofwarren]

Welcome to thread 23
Here is a link to the previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3845520-Worried-about-coronavirus-thread-22

"Keep your numbers low but your spirits high." Teen climate activist Greta Thunberg urged other activists to avoid public gatherings and move climate strikes online due to the coronavirus outbreak t.co/Yv1BgnDmuQ
CNN

Paramedic tests positive for deadly bug as cases in UK continue to rise t.co/iixTVMyokE t.co/qHHrahelc7
Daily mirror

Didn't they mention last night that a cabinet minister was in self-isolation awaiting test result?

Spain's equality minister Irene Montero tests positive for #coronavirus: govt t.co/6bCPjpIGA8
AFP

Yes anon
They didn't say who though, due to 'privacy for their family'.

My husband is a teacher and says that it seems his school is preparing to close.

I also have a friend who is a teacher and today she is attending a meeting to discuss the closure of the school she works at.

I overheard my son’s teacher talking to her TA this morning about the plans that were in place for the school closure.

So maybe it’s more imminent than we realise...

Not sure if this has already been linked, herd immunity at a huge cost to the elderly and vulnerable 😡 I think they are not dithering, this is the plan! www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/?fbclid=IwAR2vo6hIKJ8upOa_IOlNyQkehqG52_lf6Gp-zgVE1_BICYFhlZ9M3o_lMsk

Thanks for the new thread. I wonder what today will bring? Mum is preparing to self isolate if advised and is practising social distancing anyway. She's 80, heart disease, but pretty healthy really. However when she is ill she is knocked for six. And there's only me to look after her as my family are crap.

I'm curious about how many infections there must be and incredulous about how many people take the govt. figure as the actual total number of infections in the UK.

So, I did some maths to get a conservative (small c) idea of how many people in the UK are actually infected.

If we assume as someone said on a previous thread, that there is an average of 3 wks from infection to death and we take a conservative assumption of 1% CFR.

We have 8 deaths, so 3 wks ago 800 were infected. Using curve of increase in deaths in Italy (which may be steeper than the UK as the population is older), we make an assumption that deaths and infections increase by a factor of 1.3 each day.

This suggests an estimate of infections in the UK today of 236,200.

My graph is here, today is 'day 24' just for doing the maths on previous few weeks.. imgur.com/WRvOfgH

@queenofprinces
I'm seeing the same. Lots of people saying their schools are discussing the possibility of closure.

Canceling the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games would be "unthinkable," Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike said today t.co/cu7BBRTMN0
CNN

Its whether the schools individually are reacting to the press reports or whether they have actually been advised.

Care home company calls for family members to stay away amid coronavirus outbreak
t.co/m1hi7fWqRl t.co/FaFB6azFHa
Daily mirror

Thanks for the new thread.

NaturalBornWoman Thu 12-Mar-20 10:07:43

"Why not exercise caution yourself and refrain from posting unverified material?"

During this whole covid process we are all having to make our own judgements, on what we do, what we feel, what our risk levels are.
Some people may find it insightful some may not. You don't have to click through the link.

Several Italian medics have been on TV saying it is a war situation.
In fact much of what is being said in those audio excerpts was refelcted in a Channel 4 interview with another doctor yesterday

@random18
It's sensible of them to think about all possibilities isn't it.
Nobody wants to get caught out with an unexpected school closure.

@wouldcouldshould from the previous thread
NaturalBornWoman because the govt can't stop it and would rather we all got it in the spring /summer as the nhs is better able to cope.

Accepting the inevitable and planning for mitigation isn’t the same as having a “plan” for everyone to get it. I have listened to the CMO and understand the delay concept.

Given the speed at which these threads fill up, instead of putting a placemarking post, can you just swipe and 'watch this thread' and then swipe on the latest thread and bookmark it? There must be hundreds of people reading this thread and it could fill up just by people placemarking pointlessly.

ofwarren agree 100%.

It will have a massive impact on some pupils and that time just won't be recoverable.

Natural semantics, by doing nothing it has become the plan.

Rome to shut Ciampino airport from Friday night, close terminal at Fiumicino from Tuesday: statement t.co/010mllBxUU
AFP

Thanks for the new thread, ofwarren 💐

Huge impact of coronavirus revealed as Chinese air passenger numbers fall by 85% t.co/ZAELER2skH
The independent

@raaaasss I think you're right, it bodes well for the cfr but not for the health service and people who are going to need icu in a couple of weeks.

I tend not to lean into conspiracy theories etc but I just think the way china reacted to a few thousand cases out of a population over one billion meant there were alot more cases than being reported officially.

I originally came to post this link, which isn't peer reviewed yet but suggests that the virus can be spread as an aerosol and lives for upto 3 hours.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1

I really think people should start wearing masks right about now if you have to go out!

A local school went on a ski trip at the weekend. They have had to change their plans and will have quarantine on return. The HT is with them and several other teachers. Idiots to go in the first place but they didn't want to lose their money