Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

@SansaSnark

i dont think we will ever know the true death rate as there will be so many mild cases or cases that show no symptoms. so the death rate in the end may look slightly higher but in theory the % of infected people may be look much lower than originally predicted.

By saying they are listening to and acting on the science, they can blame the science later on. IMO they are desperately trying to get to the Easter holidays so they have 2/3 weeks school closures.

I felt much happier after the budget and when there was going to be an announcement at 7 I thought it would be progress. The handwashing is important but the fact is they havent or don't seem to have backed this up properly, e.g telling schools all pupils must wash hands, at least, on arrival, at break and before they leave and then co-ordinate hand wash/soap to every school. The flaky message is giving the impression that this isn't 'that bad''.

Poor Italy, hope the extra measures slow things

The UK strategy based on maths and modelling includes,

The ability to ignore likely cases of corona and not to test them. This way the numbers will seem lower and it will seem that we can control this... Of course when numbers hit the catastrophic stage, it will appear they came because that's what they were always going to do.

Keeping people in large stadiums, mixing with infected Madrid fans is a priority for this gov. Because one night of only UK fans watching in pubs wouldn't spread the virus enough.

Of course the brits will drink and socialise in pubs and bars every night of the week regardless of football matches.

@EricaNernie you only need to look at the closed deathvs recoveredfigures to know 1% is crap

The CMO has very clearly said that the 80% figure is an absolute worst case scenario (mainly because by that point the virus will have run out of people to infect).

The anticipation is that a much smaller proportion of the population will acquire Coronavirus according to the modelling. All set out in the select committee interview.

@EricaNernie Lets say it is 1%. If 80% get it, that is 500,000 people. That is the annual mortality rate in the UK from everything - heart attacks, car crashes, murder, etc. It is a lot of extra people.
And we do not know if it will be that low. It is lower than the estimate by WHO.

Just heard from a friend in Seattle that their schools are closed.

@SansaSnark i think a lot go by plane, but lots drive, too.

Another point: there isn't equality of consequences economically for more disadvantaged people if schools close, but they are also more vulnerable physically to Covid-19 because of the higher smoking rate, I know quite a few 55 year old men who smoke who working low paid jobs who would be really vulnerable and just about get through chest infections every year. So, children with parents from those backgrounds may be even more in need not to get the virus in their households through schools or any other way- it's not all about free school meals deprivation vs nothing else. Especially as free school meals could still be provided in a skeleton staff/outside agencies way ( I have a friend in the States and they are already implementing this through a charity).

Hej @MmeAlice

Husband works for in the energy industry. He's part of the emergency planning team and has a education in epidemiology and public health. I am not of the same background but do have a science background and have been following the WHO data from the end of Jan. I have been waiting for the Danes to 'wake up' for the past three weeks. I am concerned that they have not (until the press conference this evening) really grasped the severity of the situation. I also think and know that self-isolation is a problem, as in my experience Danes can be a bit arrogant. We already have people who are supposed to be in quarantine out and about getting their hair cut etc.... So, I hope now that they will start to all act responsibly. Having said that, the bastard choir committee I'm part of are insisting we meet tomorrow to discuss up and coming concerts etc... Silly bastards don't get that the decision is probably taken out of our hands already. Grr!

@Branster A lot of people from the UK who go skiing in Italy (e.g. school trips) drive through France- that was more my thinking.

Anyway it's just a random theory and not really helpful to anyone.

Yes, Ofwaren. I've been saying it for the last 15 minutes but nobody seems to notice my posts!
Not quite what you said though. All food shops will be open, and all factories etc can continue working.

@Skybluepink123
The pneumonia Vax won't hurt.
It could help with secondary infection.
But it won't touch the virus

@Sunshinegirl82 without decisive action at least 60% will get it.
You can't make up figures and ignore the evidence. Although I know that is happening in the UK.

Do you know what other things were open bookmeon? I'm sure I read cafes were open for part of the day.

It may be unavoidable that we reach the 60-80% infected to require herd immunity. But if we are doing that, I want to do it at a 1% fatality rate (horrendous) rather than a 5.8% fatality rate due to an overloaded health service (unthinkable).

Remember, according to the WHO " There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground."

They have told us the next part of their plan though. Within the next fortnight they are going to tell anyone with the mildest of cold symptoms to self-isolate for 7 days.
This is different to what has been done in other countries but could be a really good way of stopping transmission.

@BookMeOnTheSudExpress I noticed your posts and I agreed with them. Of course you can make arrangements for vulnerable kids and families. Or you even just say you won't fine or take action against any parent who takes their kid out of school.

Our friend in Italy says restaurants and cafes are closing at 6 pm, she is going to work as normal, shops are still open but they only a few customers are allowed in at a time.

Completely agree with @FacingtheAbess ... I think the only reason are numbers are so low is because the government is not testing enough people, so it suppresses the real number of cases. This means we carry on as normal so the economy doesn't crumble (yet) meanwhile merrily catching and spreading the virus until eventually (at a time decided by them) releasing the real figures when they are ready to introduce more stringent measures.

@emsy86 I agree with you to an extent- I don't think the current figures represent the true death rate at all.

However, all the estimates from bodies like WHO and others seem to be between 1.5-3.5% (ish) at the moment. There's nothing I've seen that puts the death rate as low as 1%. These are models, based on what has happened so far and I believe would take into account cases going undetected.

The evidence we have at the moment also suggests that the death rate in older populations will be higher than it has been so far in China.

So, to say 99% of people will recover is just not true, unfortunately.

alloutoffucks

Boris is listening to actual experts as well, you know. He doesn’t make these decisions on his own ffs they are going to discuss what to do with all the parties so hopefully this puts an end to all these posters who think the tories are killing off people. Utterly pathetic and says more about you than it does them

@EducatingArti But what is the science behind that? People are infectious before they show symptoms.

As I have said on previous threads, I really don't actually think the government is deliberately suppressing the amount of testing they are doing.

There is a limited capacity for testing and they are prioritising- I think largely sensibly at the moment.

If anyone has a bright idea on how to increase testing capacity overnight, I would love to hear it.