Worried about coronavirus thread 22

[ofwarren]

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

Perhaps the government ought to extend the Easter holidays to 3 weeks off

Who ARE these experts he is listening to? What IS this science? Because I have been reading everything I can lay my hands on for weeks now, from the original research, and NONE of it justifies his approach.

Is there any action that could be taken bar shutting all schools and having everyone remain in their homes for 3 months that will satisfy you?

There is a plan, they have explained what the plan will be and the reasons why and that the timing of certain actions will depend on the numbers.

The explanations are there.

@Charlesthekingcavalier I said nothing about Conservatives or as you out it Tories.

My concern is that he is not listening to experts. The real experts are WHO. He needs to listen to and act on what WHO are saying, instead of just saying wash your hands all the time.

The government is increasing testing capacity overnight actually, they have released a briefing paper and it's starting on 13th I think, capacity for 10,000 a day. The bottleneck at present is that they are only testing those with contact with a covid-19 patient and travel, so that's naturally suppressed numbers, they've even gone down in recent days showing they are not at full testing capacity.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51832634

Why do people think we're not testing enough? Our testing rates seem comparable and indeed better than many countries - far higher than France and Japan and far, far higher than the US. They seem commensurate with the spread to date and are going to be increased as the spread increases.

And indeed, if as posters on this thread suggest, there are thousands more undiagnosed people out there, then this virus is not that bad for most people as they are not seeking medical help.

You can't have it both ways. Either we're undertesting, and therefore the virus is pretty benign for most people, or we're testing about right and it's pretty serious for many people. Which would you prefer?

Critical care beds per 100,000 population, by country.

MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy:

"Keeping Parliament functioning as normal with public visiting is simply irresponsible.
As others are encouraged to cancel large meetings and events and unnecessary travel, we instigate large meetings, host events and receptions and travel from all across the country.

I’m concerned that we’re potentially spreading the virus.

My biomedical training tells me that a number of members in this House probably already have the virus.

And I’m genuinely concerned about older members of this House and older members in our constituencies and those with underlying health conditions."

@nellodee I agree with you- I probably haven't read as widely as you as I don't have that much time, but I am trying to read papers and the first hand reports coming out of Italy and China, and stay up to date.

I haven't seen anything that justifies the current approach.

I can see justifying a "not yet" approach, but not what is currently happening.

If he is listening to anyone, it's economists, not epidemiologists.

Can anyone help with a travel based Q?

If the FCO advises against travel to a country you may get an alternative holiday or refund.

Firstly, does that include if they say “do not travel unless essential” ? Is that classed as a travel ban or does it need to be “do not travel”

And secondly, what if the FCO do not advise against travel but the destination country bans travel from where you are Eg. Malta on Wednesday banned travel with Germany, France, Spain and Switzerland to try to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Robert Abela said.(Reuters)

When the capacity reaches 10k that will be very helpful. The roll out to NHS lab testing rather than PHE testing could have been quicker. Overall, we need to learn from this experience in terms of diagnostic capacity

I wish people would actually think about what they are saying and not just Tory bash constantly. It’s pathetic

No it's not.

How long have the Tories been in power now? How brutally efficient is the NHS? How efficient is 111 right now after 10 years of a Tory government?

If the only way the government has of coping with this pandemic is THIS then we're not exactly in fighting shape, are we? An economy that's apparently so fragile, we have to allow a pandemic to bring us to our knees rather than take sensible steps to control it?

We can't close schools because the poor will suffer? Damn right they will. But it shouldn't be like that.

Which government has been in power for the last 10 years again?

We do not have the benefit of the transparent, compassionate, robust leadership we desperately need.

We've got Boris Johnson and the fucking Tories.

In a pandemic situation, the politics of it are inescapable.

I am working on the assumption that the Government will do the bare minimum needed to migrate the virus. They are currently at war with the civil service and halfway through the machoistic strategy that is no-deal Brexit. So, the lack of planning and half-hearted announcements ARE the strategy. At best, we will close for an extra fortnight over Easter.

There was not a penny more announced for social care, so I suspect they want to use a pandemic disaster as a handy excuse to cover any future failings, as well as dispense with those costly sick and disabled people.

@Sunshinegirl82 So why is it in stark contrast to what WHO are advising and the evidence they have shared?
I have read a lot about this and I can see zero justification for his approach.
Of course a lockdown is not possible and I have never argued that. That is a strawman. But WHO are clearly saying he has to do much more than just wash your hands. That is ALL he has done. There has been nothing else.
Meanwhile we all know that the criteria for testing is underestimating the real results of those infected. That is also heavily implied in the fairly high mortality rate at this point.

And indeed, if as posters on this thread suggest, there are thousands more undiagnosed people out there, then this virus is not that bad for most people as they are not seeking medical help.

This

Nadine Dorries experiences symptoms last Thursday and is apparently pretty much OK now

And the grand plan is......

Also, the WHO was the body who said that transmission before symptoms appeared seemed relatively rare. So PHE are following WHO advice on that. The WHO has not specifically accused the UK of not testing enough nor indeed of not taking it seriously. This is uncharted territory and the WHO has said that different approaches are needed in different territories.

Matt Hancock literally just said that isolation measures are important however previous pandemics have demonstrated that the public are only willing to adhere to isolation measures for a short period of time therefore implementing measures too early may make them less effective when they are most critical

Fine, but what about those of us who want to do something now and are happy to do it for as long as possible and want to take kids out of school - in what universe does it make sense to penalise people who actively want to start social distancing now? That's what they're doing.

Also trying out new behavioural nudge theory in an epidemic rather than tried and tested social distancing measures that the WHO endorses is VERY VERY DODGY. It's not a fucking experiment.

Also, I'd be more reassured by this if the PHE wasn't spouting lies and 111 triage based on lies - i.e. the lie of you can't be contagious before you show symptoms.

Hancock referring to scientific evidence. Is there some evidence that suggests the virus behaves differently in the UK to the rest of the world? Other countries seem to have different evidence to us.

Well, if Bearbehind says we have tonnes of hidden cases, let's take their word for it, and ignore the WHO saying:

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

Of course, they said this about China. Where they were actually LOOKING for people who had the virus.

The images of the drive through testing make me despair. Lambs to the slaughter as they are seriously lacking in protection.

That is not true. WHO have said there is not enough testing.

Which previous pandemics is Matt Hancock referencing that have required isolation? There haven't been that many, and even less that have required isolation.

Large research study shows that bringing in control measures (such as isolation and lockdown) just a week earlier can reduce the number of cases by 66%. And yet the UK medical experts suggest sitting on our hands and doing nothing until the peak is already here

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/research-finds-huge-impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19

@Sansasnark I think you have it on the head there. He is being advised by economists. They are the experts he is referencing.