To be worried about Coronavirus part 7

[Jenasaurus]

As nearly full on the other one, Ill just leave this here and link to it on the other thread for when its full

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3834698-To-be-worried-about-the-Coronavirus-Part-6?pg=10&messages=100

This video from lovely Dr John Campbell, is very informative and in part reassuring he has suggested a lower CFR of 1% based on the figures he is constantly analysing

Here is a link to Worldometer Map for live updates

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and here is another link for news sources from BNO News.

bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

I find the whole CFR thing the most stressful as when you're looking at experts predicting millions will catch something even a small difference in % makes a huge difference in the number of deaths.

If 60% of the UK caught it with 1% CFR = 420k

If it's 2.5% = 1.05 million

For scale an average seasonal flu here is 17,000 (but ranges from 1,800 to 28,000 over the last 5 years).

When you look at these figures you start to appreciate why, even if your individual risk is low, this is something to genuinely be concerned about.

Also departments have to plan for the reasonable worst case scenario which I guess is 3% ish hence why they're planning potential morgues in tents in Hyde Park for example...but this doesn't mean they'll need them.

That being said I think 1% would be a pretty good outcome and I'm not that optimistic about that at the moment if the Govt are doing nothing to delay the spread (and so avoid health care overwhelm).

Front pages of tomorrow’s papers are all about Johnson’s engagement.

Unbelievable negligence. By the government, obviously, but also by the press. Who is holding this group of clowns to account?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11946711

they need to continue talking it up until we’re out the other side of Brexit. A public information campaign about a pandemic is one of the quickest ways to burst the bubble of the public’s perception.

But this is something that is happening all around the world. Most people see/read the news and are aware of what is going on. It's more frightening to feel that we're being lied to or the truth is being hidden. That is surely going to affect perceptions more badly. It's making me trust the government less - that's for sure. And I didn't think that was possible.

@apricotnuts I never saw those stats in the Wuhan paper

nvm

I see it as appalling negligence.

Because they know.

TreesSandSea it’s all a distraction. If you mess with the unsuspecting public enough, confuse them, panic them and send them down rabbit holes enough times they will eventually switch off. Many can not fathom the bigger picture, soon to be tempted by the next big news story, in this case a new baby for the great (to some) PM.

It’s not negligence it’s a deliberate measure. Calm the bubbling fear at home whilst those abroad are in dire straits. Let’s see what happens after Monday’s COBRA.

@FelicityFebruary yep, they do.
Personally I think there is a whole other world going on behind the scenes this weekend by the government.
There are already plans in place for the likes of us in scenarios as this.
BJs headline baby is just a 'happy story' to take the focus off the reality.

Unbelievable negligence. By the government, obviously, but also by the press. Who is holding this group of clowns to account?

It feels like they are treating us like Plebs not worthy of basic stats etc

I know all that, Wehttam.

What surprises me is that the press are so subservient now that they allow it to happen.

Whether the negligence is deliberate or not (clearly it is - they have good scientific advisors working with them), the press should resist being used as a distraction with fluffy stories about engagements and babies that are totally irrelevant.

I imagine Monday's cobra will spend most of its time discussing prams, cots and high chairs.

Balkinfly perhaps a lot couldn’t handle the basic stats. Pin to a bubble?

What surprises me is that the press are so subservient now that they allow it to happen.

The 'press' our press which are allowed to give us news, is dictated to by the government!
Who will you turn to for news when they're issued D notices?

We're fucked WitchDoc and the BBC has been the same for a few years now.We might as well live in Cuba.

This presumably may be going through a review but this is the current version of the UK pandemic preparedness strategy...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/213717/dhh_131040.pdf

YANBU to be worried, it seems that this virus is much worse than ordinary flu, and is spreading worldwide. Aircraft are ripe breeding grounds for bacteria and viral infections, with the recycled air being breathed in by all the passengers (except first class, who apparently get more fresh air in that compartment, as do the flight officers).

I'm not sure what can be done to stop it spreading here, except shutting the whole country down, including schools, shops, offices and industry for 2 to 3 weeks, and making everyone self isolate at home. However, that would be a very draconian measure, and doesn't seem practical. Also, there are many jobs which provide essential services to keep society ticking over. These are worrying times, and I don't think there are any easy solutions. I don't blame our government for this mess, I blame the unhygenic (and probably cruel) practices that went on in the live meat markets in China, which resulted in the creation of this awful virus.

Can you imagine if this was actually all a hoax and it did just disappear as Trump claimed it would come April. I’d love nothing more than to have this looming black cloud shifted. To actually be excited for the summer, relish spring and be making plans for holidays. I’d actually forgive them if they just stopped it now and said sorry folks it was a hoax.

Yup

I’m starting to get concerned and wondering if I need to isolate myself and my baby. I have existing conditions so would be in the vulnerable population. If I were on my own I’d be more confident about self-isolating and my hygiene habits. With my baby, it’s impossible to keep away from germs. But her baby group is one of the few social activities I still have and I feel a bit desperate at the thought of losing it unnecessarily.

I can't use the words I would like to on here to describe Trump. The US will be hit hard by this. They already have cases from unknown origins. There was a man on Reddit saying he thinks he may have had the virus (west coast), he and all his family had the symptoms. He has no med insurance and no doctor to report it too. Luckily he is now better but there will be many Americans in the same boat who can't afford to take time off work and are unable to access medical help.

But this is something that is happening all around the world. Most people see/read the news and are aware of what is going on. It's more frightening to feel that we're being lied to or the truth is being hidden. That is surely going to affect perceptions more badly. It's making me trust the government less - that's for sure. And I didn't think that was possible.

I feel even less trust in the government too.

But Johnson is used to denying economic and scientific reality - he’s replaced all that with promising people they can have their cake and eat it. And of course, they can’t. But he thought he had a bit of time until the Brexit shit hit the fan and they realised it. Now they’re going to get a ride awakening much sooner.
My prediction is him speaking about it minimally, and doing as little as possible. First in desperate hope that it doesn’t get too bad, and then so that he can blame other countries and try to wriggle out of responsibility. He will also be trying to influence the press to hush things up, hence his happy news with his mistress

Hopefully there are enough competent people in the civil service at least that risks will be mitigated to some extent, nonetheless.

I don't blame our government for this mess

I'm going to have to have to completely disagree with you on this @defenbaker

It is a governments duty to protect & defend its citizens. Not shutting down flights & introducing mandatory checks on every traveller into this country at boarders makes me blame the government

Bluebelle only do what feels right for you. Self isolation could end up being weeks, can you not just take extra precautions when you leave the house? Avoiding crowds and busy places, keeping away from the sick and following hand hygiene steps may be enough for the immediate future.

Call you GP if you have existing issues to discuss your concerns. If you are able to I would make sure you are adequately self sufficient and prepared should you feel it necessary to self isolate.

Anyway time to sleep and then try to help my own little group through this.

I can't think of any wider thing to be done. The political opposition are keeping out of it. With the majority of people demanding life (well the commercial and social side and mostly for the healthy and those under 50s) should go on unhindered.

I wish I lived in Singapore.
They're going to smash the life expectancy table in a couple of years.

@Wehttam I don’t think I’d be worried if it weren’t for my son. Normally I am content practicing good hygiene myself. But he’s at that age where he wants to chew on everything and we’ve both been sick all winter because of the bugs he’s picked up.

I haven’t minded because I know it’s a normal thing for kids to go through, but I’m starting to get nervous now.