To be worried about Coronavirus part 7

[Jenasaurus]

As nearly full on the other one, Ill just leave this here and link to it on the other thread for when its full

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3834698-To-be-worried-about-the-Coronavirus-Part-6?pg=10&messages=100

This video from lovely Dr John Campbell, is very informative and in part reassuring he has suggested a lower CFR of 1% based on the figures he is constantly analysing

Here is a link to Worldometer Map for live updates

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and here is another link for news sources from BNO News.

bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

the reality is we are ALL in this together.

100% this^^

If we all gave our loved ones a hand sanitizer, pack of tissues & reminded them via texts throughout the day to give their hands a regular thorough hand washing & insisted on no unnecessary travel, we'd go a long way to slowing down this virus.

Myrtle it’s not entitled it’s the reality, I am ok moneywise, many others here are OK

And funnily enough the many others who will be okay don’t feel the need to blather on about that constantly, and especially not whilst predicting terror for the rest of the planet.

Stop being a wee gobshite; it’s putting people off this thread and then they miss discussions on the practical steps that might help them and their weans.

Would you go on holiday to Vietnam - bearing in mind they say they have only 16 cases, all now recovered ie less than UK - next week? I’m genuinely interested to hear what people who are concerned about the virus think as all friends are saying its will be fine, go for it’. This is a long awaited, long planned trip and we will lose £5k if we don’t go, no refund unless the FCO advise against travelling there which is unlikely.

To those asking about the Newbury connection for the confirmed case in Reading, the assessment pod for Berkshire is at the West Berks hospital in Newbury.

Fundamentally there is a decision to make: Economy vs. Lives. China chose lives. So far our Govt appear to be fully choosing economy.

I don’t think it’s that straightforward. Firstly China took a while to “choose lives”, but the two are closely linked. If you continue not to take action supposedly for the sake of the economy, and put people’s lives at risk, you risk Coronavirus becoming out-of-control, and doing far more damage to the economy in the long run.

The question is whether the Government is being complacent or over-reacting... I’m inclined to think they aren’t doing enough. However, people will soon make their own decisions about big events if things get worse....

I think things will continue to deteriorate this coming week. My prediction is that next weekend will be last “normal” one regarding football fixtures... They’ll be clamour to cancel them as the week progresses and growth in those with CV accelerates, but a combination of inertia and complacency will mean they’ll largely go ahead. They’ll all be off the following week though, and theatres and cinemas will close.

From what I have read even the mild cases are pneumonia type symptoms rather than 'cold' symptoms:

www.lung.org/lung-health-and-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/pneumonia/symptoms-and-diagnosis.html.

"Pneumonia symptoms can vary from so mild you barely notice them, to so severe that hospitalization is required. How your body responds to pneumonia depends on the type germ causing the infection, your age and your overall health.

The signs and symptoms of pneumonia may include:

Cough, which may produce greenish, yellow or even bloody mucus
Fever, sweating and shaking chills
Shortness of breath
Rapid, shallow breathing
Sharp or stabbing chest pain that gets worse when you breathe    deeply or cough
Loss of appetite, low energy, and fatigue
Nausea and vomiting, especially in small children
Confusion, especially in older people"

The point I was trying to make was that many people are understandably finding it difficult to grasp why this particular virus is different. The name and symptoms being publicised are very woolly. Most people have some idea what pneumonia is and are more likely to understand that it can be severe and require hospitalisation.

Basically the easiest way of thinking of COVID is:

• It is like a genetic sister of SARS

• It is less deadly than SARS but much more contagious

• Experts estimate that c.60% of the population will catch it, the unknown is how many catch it in the first year (the less interventions the Govt make the more in the first year)

• In 80% of cases there are symptoms ranging from flu-type symptoms through to mild pneumonia

• In 20% of cases it results in (more than mild) viral pneumonia, of these the majority will require hospitalisation

• In 5% of cases it is critical and requires significant intervention like ventilation or ECMO (which is like dialysis for the heart and lungs)

• In somewhere between 1-7% of cases it results in death. Most are estimating 1-3% as the final mortality rate.

• Death rates are higher for 50-60+ and those with underlying health conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular and lung issues particularly) as well as for smokers

So the risk of illness to a healthy person under 50 is okay, but the societal impact could be large:

• Almost certainly a global recession coming (if not a depression)

• Issues with global supply chains (we don't yet know exactly what the impact will be here)

• If the Govt don't take interventions to delay or minimise the spread then it is almost certain that the NHS will be overwhelmed - with knock on impact to all healthcare including cancellation of any non-essential appointments, likely loss of life in the pool of people who require healthcare but don't have COVID due to the overwhelm

• Personal stress and/or grief of losing people close to you and/or witnessing the impact of many more deaths than we are used to seeing and/or supporting close friends who are bereaved, etc

• The potential for some degree of civil unrest in some areas (may or may not happen)

As @UserMcUserface says, and as per my earlier post, the assessment pod for Berkshire is at West Berkshire hospital in Newbury. The member of staff is from willow bank infant school in woodley and was assessed in Newbury.

Wehttam
Margot smug? I have a fucking family as well you know! You think I’m relishing the fact my aunt with cancer is risking her life every time she goes to fucking Asda?! There is no excitement in my posts so read into all you like, the reality is we are ALL in this together.

Yes we are. So you are just looking at from the worst scenario? I honestly don't think it as bad as you do. I may be wrong.

@G1ngerD4nce I would go, unless one of you is immune suppressed. No different to going about your lives in the UK.

@G1ngerD4nce personally I wouldn't trust their statistics not to be similar to Thailand with limited cases bit a huge viral puemonia surge..

Absolutely not @G1ngerD4nce. For one thing I think it's safe to say the numbers will be higher there and secondly I'd worry about getting home. Things are moving quickly, there is no telling what restrictions will be put in place re flights, or which places will be shut down. Can't imagine the govt will be repatriating holiday makers if they are busy firefighting at home either.

It's awful you stand to lose to much money but I think going would be a serious gamble.

G1nger what do you think you should do? Do you trust the numbers that have so far come out of there? They are screening visitors going in but the healthcare system there is quite basic in some areas so the situation may be worse that reported. Personally it’s too near China for me to risk it, but if you do go I hope you have a wonderful safe trip.

Yes it is Woodley, Willowbank Primary School. Teacher ignored protocol after returning from Red Zone. Frankly should be sacked for gross misconduct. Teachers and healthcare staff have the potential to be super spreaders after all. They come into contact with many many people, who in turn go out and spread further.
I live literally five minutes from there. People on our local group are being typically moronic. Oh its not that bad, it's only flu. The media and government have a lot to answer for with that bullshit. It's perpetuating a myth meaning people aren't taking this seriously. It's that that will cause huge repercussions.
I don't care what DP and his sister say, I'm isolating us in until DS will be safe. I don't care how long it takes. It spreads to the lungs and we know it is bad for people with lung conditions.

I would just advise everybody to listen to @wheresmymojo

G1nger I agree, especially if you can avoid northern regions (with recorded cases).
Just make sure you have good medical insurance cover and are aware of extra temp screening at airports.

Its not as simple as "economy vs lives" though, is it. The 2 are completely enmeshed. Holing up at home wont be such a good plan w no electricity or running water, no way of restocking food, no access to medical care. And behind all those things are a whole other network of support services.

Holing up may become necessary but for most, there's a definite finite period it can be managed for. So best not to start too early.

@G1ngerD4nce

I know most people here will think I'm mad but I would go as long as I checked that my travel insurance would cover me because:

• I'm healthy and 37 and a non-smoker so mine and DH's risk (disgustingly healthy) of the severe end of symptoms would be low

• I'm not very risk averse (and I started the prepper threads on this because the facts speak for themselves not because I'm a cautious person or natural prepper!)

• IMO Vietnam is almost certainly under-reporting but it's going to be everywhere here soon anyway so same-same

I would make a different decision if we weren't in the 'low risk' section though.

Although saying that my PILs who are 70 & 78 are going to Vietnam and Cambodia for 3 weeks next Friday. They're pretty clued up on the virus so I think have just decided to live with the risk. I don't know if I'd be quite so game at their age TBH.

@BiBiBirdie I don't blame you, I would like to do the same myself

I don’t think it’s that straightforward. Firstly China took a while to “choose lives”, but the two are closely linked.

I agree.
If there’s one thing the Chinese government has a surfeit of, it’s lives. I don’t think they caused themselves serious economic harm to save 2% of their elderly/unwell citizens. I think instead that they realised that there would be much more severe and ongoing economic harm and/or a much higher rate of deaths that could become unsustainable, which they could only avert by taking the hit of serious economic harm in the short term.

It concerns me a lot that this UK government is so used to sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring reality. But then again, if they do know that they need to take drastic measures, they wouldn’t be announcing it yet. We can but hope, in the meantime. And prepare our own measures, of course.

I wonder if Crufts will ahead next week - 16,000 from around the world attending. Website says they are monitoring the situation. DSis is due to come over from Belgium for a visit to it. If it’s still on she’s going to come but she’s anticipating it will be postponed.

I'm tempted with the 'it's only the flu' people to just ask whether they'd be happy to go on a two week hangout in Wuhan with a packet of lemsip...

I don't care what DP and his sister say, I'm isolating us in until DS will be safe. I don't care how long it takes. It spreads to the lungs and we know it is bad for people with lung conditions

But how effective is it when your DP isn’t isolating himself and could potentially bring the virus back into your home anyway?

This is what worries me.

Me, DH and our two children are due to go to Turkey in 6 weeks (all paid for) and I have told him I don’t want to go. He said I’m overreacting and there’s no way we’re wasting that money. I have told him that he can go if he likes but me and the children will be staying at home.

But then what’s the point of that because if he does pick up the virus he will bring it into the home anyway when he gets back, so we may as well have just gone with him?

It’s so hard when everyone has different views on the severity and what actions should or shouldn’t be taken.

@Dennisreynoldsduster, the section I quoted from was from this article www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

I am still a bit unclear on what the current CFR rate is, I quickly glanced at the WHO report and if I have understood it correctly the overall CFR rate in China is now put at 0.7% with the location in China and various co-morbidities producing different variables, eg CFR rate in the China cases going up to 13.8% if the person has cardiovascular disease.

Yes it is Woodley, Willowbank Primary School. Teacher ignored protocol after returning from Red Zone

Is that just rumour or confirmed? The bit about not following the guidance.