To be worried about Coronavirus part 7

[Jenasaurus]

As nearly full on the other one, Ill just leave this here and link to it on the other thread for when its full

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3834698-To-be-worried-about-the-Coronavirus-Part-6?pg=10&messages=100

This video from lovely Dr John Campbell, is very informative and in part reassuring he has suggested a lower CFR of 1% based on the figures he is constantly analysing

Here is a link to Worldometer Map for live updates

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and here is another link for news sources from BNO News.

bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

I'm tempted with the 'it's only the flu' people to just ask whether they'd be happy to go on a two week hangout in Wuhan with a packet of lemsip...

I'd dare them to lick a door knob there

Its not as simple as "economy vs lives" though, is it.

I wasn't suggesting it was.

My post also talked about countries going for a middle route that involves some economic impact but also helps delay the spread.

So far this Govt is choosing to 100% be over on the economy side.

I'm not suggesting they should move to 100% the other side...there are lots of positions between the two ends of the spectrum.

Junior school near me has also closed due to potential coronavirus...

@HairyFloppins What a strange thing to say. I have been there and none of us came back ill.

But the mortality rate will be a lot higher if all the critical cases come at once and the NHS is overwhelmed. That is why I just cannot understand the ‘strategy’ that is being employed. Any sort of significant public health campaign could slow down the spread significantly and spread out the peak, this resulting in fewer deaths. China saw this coming - that is why they suddenly built all that additional hospital capacity.
And our government’s approach - nothing to see here!

@wheresmymojo pretty much my understanding along with the reinfection point.

How the fuck did we fuck up so badly. I think I’m still in shock, it feels like a Netflix series but it’s actually real life.

Indeed witchdoc.

The "it's no worse than flu" has not been debunked by official communications / news outlets.

We can't blame people if they have been lulled into a sense of nothing much to see here.

I thought this info on mortality rates from the most recent WHO report on the CoVid 19 outbreak in China was useful as it details the various rates depending on age and co-morbidities:

“Mortality increases with age, with the highest mortality among people over 80 years of age (CFR 21.9%). The CFR is higher among males compared to females (4.7% vs. 2.8%). By occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest CFR at 8.9%. While patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a CFR of 1.4%, patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates: 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.”

Thank you everyone, that’s really helpful. I suspect we will go as I think the situation here is as bad as Vietnam. We’re 53 and 59 so not that young but in good health generally. We booked the holiday weeks before Coronavirus came to light so kicking ourselves.

@janemaster not a strange thing to say at all a lot of people come back with vegas cough. I was replying to poster above who was concerned. Probably from all the fag smoke mind.

Further to my last post above, I don’t know whether the cited CFR (crude fatality ratio) for the co-morbid conditions diabetes and hypertension is generally or where the blood sugars and blood pressure are not controlled.

How the fuck did we fuck up so badly

The good, general public didn't. It's all about the economy & markets. The government does not care about us

That is why I just cannot understand the ‘strategy’ that is being employed. Any sort of significant public health campaign could slow down the spread significantly and spread out the peak, this resulting in fewer deaths.

This government promised the electorate to return this country to the sunshine and rainbows of yesteryear, and they need to continue talking it up until we’re out the other side of Brexit. A public information campaign about a pandemic is one of the quickest ways to burst the bubble of the public’s perception.

@apricotnuts

Basically it isn't actually possible to calculate the CFR until after an epidemic has finished and all cases are resolved one way or the other (recovered or died).

So there is no 100% accurate answer and there won't be until this is all done.

Some people quote the current CFR at 3.4%

As this is no. deaths/total cases x 100

However there is an obvious flaw with that as of the total cases (83k) there are a lot (43k) that have neither died nor recovered yet. 3.4% basically assumes that none of these 43k will die which is obviously not the case.

Some people quote the current CFR as 7%

This is no. deaths/cases that have reached a conclusion x 100

However this number tends to decrease over time as the beginning of a pandemic always has a higher death rate as we don't know what the new virus is and there's usually a bit of a clusterfuck situation. This 7% is alarming but has been steadily reducing.

Experts at modelling diseases estimate it will end up being around 1-3%, most say 1-2.5%. I tend to use this as they know better than me

Re Vietnam, they've been quite aggressive in taking steps to contain things e.g. quarantining towns and closing all schools. I think my biggest concern with visiting would be getting caught up in some kind of quarantine measure, and not being easily able to leave. But as an otherwise healthy person, I would be tempted to risk it- it would depend a lot on the consequences of not being able to get back as planned.

I do think our government could be taking steps such as stopping large gatherings as has happened in Germany and France.

But the mortality rate will be a lot higher if all the critical cases come at once and the NHS is overwhelmed.

Very true @TreesSandSea, the latest WHO report on the CoVid 19 outbreak in China said the mortality rate was much higher at the start:
“the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1- 10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak.”

Also there is the whole thing to take into account of - do we trust all countries numbers?

No.

Do we think all countries are reporting on a standardised basis?

No. Some only include cases that reach hospital, some (Korea) are doing more testing than that. Some are doing a combination.

So basically it's one of the most important numbers to assess the risk level but also subject to massive discussion. So again, I'm going with the expert estimates of 1-2.5% as they have more experience of how to manage all those uncertainties than I do.

Different countries will also end up with different CFRs due to how quickly it spreads (healthcare overwhelm will be a massive determining factor), the healthcare quality in that country, how the population react (are they careful or dicks?), etc.

G1ngerD4nce can you afford to miss work? Either if you get stuck out there, with flights suspended, or if you’re quarantined in your return? That’s an important factor to consider.

Personally I’m not flying from now on - have even cancelled some work (freelancer so it has cost me) so I don’t risk being stuck abroad. But I’ve got dependents who I have to prioritise.

Another thing - don’t make a final decision (either way) until the very last moment, when you’ll have as much information as possible.

@wheresmymojo, thank you that’s really helpful info on CFR!

Much smaller number of cases and higher fatality rate but SARS table here shows how much the CFR can vary by country...

So obviously we’ve learned from the China cases what is needed, prepared the equipment, staff and additional facilities in advance, maximised our chances of dealing with the most ill effectively?

No. No we haven’t.

I cannot decide if it is just outright incompetence or deliberate distain and nonchalance about the population.

But I am leaning towards the latter.

Sorry, that was to apricotnuts

@meredithgrey1 yes confirmed by the school and in The Wokingham Paper.

@QueenofmyPrinces I've told him tonight either stay in and keep him safe or, to put it as bluntly as I did to him, fuck off to his patronising sisters.
Frankly, if he puts his own needs of going out for jollies to the pub over our son he can fuck off permanently. He knows I will not put up with anyone risking our son. I've had major rows with schools, doctors, nurses and consultants in the past for not taking his I'll health seriously.