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To be worried about the Coronavirus Part 6

999 replies

Jenasaurus · 27/02/2020 23:17

Old thread here

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3833553-to-be-worried-about-coronavirus-part-5

OP posts:
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7
Jenasaurus · 27/02/2020 23:21

Hope its OK, that I started this thread, I noticed the other one was full.#.

This situation seems so surreal at the moment, I am addicted to the news and this thread for updates.

OP posts:
CoCoPops55 · 27/02/2020 23:24
Brew
Motorina · 27/02/2020 23:25

Thankyou for starting :)

One of the last posts on the previous thread asked about the CFR for the 1918 Spanish Flu. Google is suggesting 2.2-2.5% worldwide, but much higher in some places.

One source here: www.cfr.org/event/pandemic-preparedness-lessons-learned-100-years-after-spanish-flu-outbreak

middleager · 27/02/2020 23:26

Thanks. Was about to post this when the last thread reached 1k!

RedToothBrush I forbid you from returning to your garden if it takes you away from these threads.

I value your your posts on here (and FWR).

Jenasaurus · 27/02/2020 23:30

Everyone I meet is so divided on this, half my family think its a serious issue, the other half think its a panic over nothing, and I seem to be the only one at work who has any sort of concern that it will have a serious impact on many areas of life, health, social and financial for society.

Thank god for this thread, its an outlet where I can say what I feel about this virus, without someone telling me its just a mild cold and rolling their eyes

OP posts:
LangClegsInSpace · 27/02/2020 23:41

If the spread is slowed down by containment then wouldn't that mean less pressure on health services at one particular time.

Yes, if the spread is actually slowed down. Containment may have been effective a week or so ago but I don't think it is any more. Not in cities and certainly not in the half-hearted lip-service way it has been deployed in the last couple of days.

DonkeyKong2019 · 27/02/2020 23:42

I'm definitely on the line between not too worried and very worried!

IDSNeighbour · 27/02/2020 23:57

I'm finding this thread fascinating.

Question re school closures -
Seeing that a) at the moment, we have hardly any cases in the UK, b) children are great at spreading germs around their families and into the wider community and c) in an absolute worst case apocalypse style scenario, it would be the young people we would want to come out of the crisis alive, wouldn't we be better off closing schools for a fortnight or so with all KS2, 3, 4 and 5 children inside the schools, not at home with individual families? Before it's too late and infection is everywhere?
The rest of the world could still work, the children could be educated and have holiday camp style activities in evenings and at weekends. And they'd be safe. For those of us who are teachers, the pain of having to self isolate with all the children would be mitigated by being safer than out among the general population.

I work in a boarding school. Our Chinese children couldn't go home for half term and probably won't be able to go home for Easter either. Our Spanish children may not be able to go home for Easter at this rate either. I feel sorry for them not getting to see their families but think, at the moment, they are probably safer.

Of course, there's no way this would fly with parents. But just musing on what would make more logical sense.

sophiegoesgreen · 28/02/2020 00:02

Hi all, I was wondering if anyone knows where to buy masks? I've been told N95 are the best.. but finding it hard to source in the uk. My brother who lives abroad has been able to get hold of one but can't get anymore - he's in Saudi and says it's crazy out there to get any...

Sunnyskies111 · 28/02/2020 00:05

Two local schools to me have shut after students returned from school trips to now affected areas, my parents have just cancelled a trip to Italy that was planned for week after next. I'm not worried as I only go from home to work and back, but I am being extra vigilant with hand washing. I do take public transport though so that has made me worry a bit more.

Additional chaos in my family after a relative has returned from Spain infuriated that her son and DIL won't let her meet their 5 day old baby for the next two weeks.

LarkDescending · 28/02/2020 00:09

Here is a graphic representation of the UK swine flu outbreak in 2009, plotting new cases per week:

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Swineflu_uk_hpa_model.svg

The dip in the middle has (after detailed research) been attributed to the school summer holidays when schoolchildren, did not have the opportunity to mingle all day and take the flu home with them.

This, together with similar findings in other countries, explains why school closures are key to modern public health harm-reduction strategies.

KenAdams · 28/02/2020 00:10

Can I ask that people quote their sources when quoting "facts" please so it's a bit easier to determine actual news rather than hearsay?

I don't mean the tweets but any other information that's shared.

LarkDescending · 28/02/2020 00:10

*Excuse weird punctuation!

GeorgiaGirl52 · 28/02/2020 00:15

My granddaughter's school has started to try and stockpile masks for all students and faculty but there are NONE on the shelves anywhere. Even Amazon is "currently unavailable". People who bought up supplies are selling them at $10 apiece. Over the counter medications are also disappearing and pharmacies unable to restock. The government on the news says "don't panic" but the CDC is sendind school nurses and pharmacists daily updates.

NotEverythingIsBlackandwhite · 28/02/2020 00:21

Over the counter medications are also disappearing and pharmacies unable to restock
Over the counter medicines for what? You can't buy anti-virals over the counter can you? No other medicines will help treat a virus.

IDSNeighbour · 28/02/2020 00:25

Are these the wrong type of masks? Amazon has got these:
www.amazon.co.uk/s?ref=nb_sb_noss_2&i=aps&k=surgical%20face%20mask&tag=mumsnetforu03-21&url=search-alias%3Daps

KoalasandRabbit · 28/02/2020 00:27
Bear
BlackeyedSusan · 28/02/2020 00:28

Going back to Italy.

If the very sick only came to everyone's attention a week ago, and now we have a large number tested positive, and people abroad are being linked to Italy, then it was spreading quietly at least a month ago. Maybe three or four of cycles of infection before someone was so ill they tested. ( Given the average incubation rate could be four days) (big range up to 27 days?)

So, we probably have reimported infected skiers. If they are young and get mild cases, they may not be picked up. How many have been ill and parents sent to school because we are all instructed to send them in as much as possible? They infect their mate and a teacher and a parent say. Maybe it is only when the older adults get sick that our cases emerge into the public eye and we find we are in an Italy situation. Cases popping up everywhere.

Depends o the number of skiers infected in school on Monday, and the number of pupils they pass it onto, and how quickly they are infectious.

Of course we may never know if they are not tested.

7Days · 28/02/2020 00:33

What are the criteria for choosing masks?

I wasnt particularly worried. But a man in DH's office just came home from a holiday in Northern Italy. It's ok though, he wasnt near the epicentre . Probably true.

HeIenaDove · 28/02/2020 00:35

Going by the last thread people over 60 who are immunosuppressed would be collataral damage then.

DH is 70 soon. He has COPD. ischemic heart disease and arthritis.
His GP surgery want to test his blood pressure on Monday Which will be up at least slightly White coat hypertension anyone?

And he will present as out of breath when he gets there because of his breathing difficulties and the stress of being dragged down there.

As it is THEIR idea and insistence that he attends i wonder what the protocol would be..............

LarkDescending · 28/02/2020 00:40

It’s important to note (as the CMO did today) that there is currently little clear evidence as to whether this virus is highly transmissible by children. They don’t seem badly affected so far - so maybe they just don’t easily get infected, or on the other hand perhaps they do (and are infectious) but without serious symptoms.

Whether the ski trip children are a risky pool of potential patients and/or superspreaders, and more broadly whether school closures will be useful in halting an outbreak, will depend upon the scientific findings informing the developing understanding of this virus.

LarkDescending · 28/02/2020 00:41

*halting or slowing an outbreak, I suppose that should say.

amz12 · 28/02/2020 00:46

AFRICA- Lagos State Nigeria reports 1st case of coronavirus

HeIenaDove · 28/02/2020 00:47

Im worried because people DO go to GP surgeries when they are told not to and i dont want him catching anything.

amz12 · 28/02/2020 00:49

The case confirmed on the 27th of February 2020 is an Italian citizen who works in Nigeria and returned from Milan, Italy to Lagos, Nigeria on the 25th of February 2020