US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

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https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

Think you're mixing up "suggested" with "ordered".

Maybe where you live a suggestion would be an order but in the West it's advisory. You know this, coming from Scotland.

Actual wording of the security alert.

SECURITY ALERT: U.S. EMBASSY xxxxxxx – AUGUST 1, 2026

Event: Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation.

Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions. Some airlines in the region have postponed resumption of earlier flight schedules; others have cancelled some routes. Americans in the region should consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation.

Check your flight’s departure status with the airline directly or through:
xxxxxxx

Americans outside the Middle East should seriously reconsider travel to and through the region. Those who do travel to or from the region should monitor information about airport and airline operations.

U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted. Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world, including U.S. businesses and other institutions.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid. The Iranian regime is unpredictable, as seen by its recent decisions to attack areas in the region without warning or provocations as well as to expand attacks to areas not previously targeted (such as Egypt). Americans should remain vigilant, as merely because U.S. interests or businesses have not been attacked in a country in the past does not ensure their safety.

Just Iran? As the US and Israel prepare for more strikes. Six of one, half a dozen of the other. Meanwhile, yet more shit for everybody else.

Pedro Sanchez has criticised “selfish” EU leaders after 22 European prime ministers and presidents attacked him for the sudden migrant surge in Ceuta.

67 people died with many drowning or being crushed to death in an incident that has triggered a diplomatic crisis for Spain.

Georgia Meloni led calls for Madrid to be temporarily frozen out of the EUs passport-free Schengen Zone.

Mr Sanchez was left isolated after 22 EU leaders including Ms Meloni & the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote a letter to Ursula Von der Leyen addressing “serious concern” over the threat to the EU border. It was signed by the leaders of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia & Sweden.

They singled out Mr Sanchez’s migrant amnesty for criticism. In early July, some 609, 737 of the 1.17 million migrants in Spain who applied for legal status obtained temporary work permits, making it the largest regularisation of black market workers in European history.

Mr Sanchez has been an outlier in the EU because he is pro immigration, anti Israel and one of the few Left wing leaders in the bloc.

It's good news, but no wonder some journalists are calling it the Whiplash War.

Trump climbs down on Iran strikes after Saudi alarm and threats from Tehran
President claims delay is ‘subject to being able to rapidly make a deal’ as intervention by Saudi crown prince is revealed and Iran warns neighbours

Donald Trump said on Saturday night that the US would hold off on any new strikes on Iran provided a deal to end the months-long conflict is quickly reached – marking the president’s latest climbdown from extravagant threats to hit the Tehran regime hard.
The Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on Saturday to express concerns about his strike plans, it was reported. Trump’s reversal also came after Iran threatened to retaliate decisively against its neighbours in the event of US strikes, while Kuwait reported being hit by Iranian drones on Saturday and two ships were attacked off Oman in the strait of Hormuz.
One source described as having knowledge of the Trump-Mohammed call told Axios that the Saudi crown prince had “urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes”.
The US war on Iran is spinning out of control
Mohamad Bazzi
Read more
The Associated Press also reported the conversation, citing its own source. It said the Saudis were concerned that if the US targets Iran’s energy infrastructure or carries out massive strikes on other key infrastructure, Tehran could respond by carrying out similar attacks on the kingdom and other Gulf countries.

And from The Times

While insisting the US military remained “locked and loaded” and ready to strike Iran, Trump said on Saturday he had decided to “cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”. He added: “The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment.”
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Plans had been drawn up to launch the attacks with Israel as soon as this weekend, CBS News reported. Israel has not attacked Iran since Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June.

Just one day before Saturday’s announcement, Trump had told reporters: “We’ll be hitting them [Iran] very hard. At some point, they’re going to say, ‘We just can’t take it anymore.’”
Tehran did not immediately comment on the president’s claim the two sides were closing in on a deal.

Earlier on Saturday, the US state department issued new security alerts for Americans in ten countries in the region, urging them to exercise heightened caution.
With the war now in its sixth month, Trump was thought to have grown increasingly exasperated with Tehran and was considering ways to go beyond a series of retaliatory strikes, deepen the war and try to break the stalemate.

Very funny @Ihatetomatoes

Meanwhile, in the real world, Saudi committed atrocities against Yemen for many years and only stopped recently:
https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/genocide-emergency-saudi-arabia-and-the-war-in-yemen

Have you forgotten that nice man MBS murdered Khashoggi and destroyed his body and lied about it? A reminder:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Jamal_Khashoggi

Just two historical examples for you.

Now to the current, the Saudis attacked the Yemenis when they arrived home from Khamenei's funeral. The Yemenis/Houthis have responded by attacking Saudi vital oil refineries. Remember that they recall the many years of Saudi aggression against their population.
Perhaps the Saudis aren't so righteous and noble after all!

I will my escalation point again because it is worth repeating and all those cheering don't seem to understand the risks.

Up to you but the cheering was a major theme. I'm sorry it all passed you by!

I read in the Washington Post that the US say they no longer have the resources available to them to protect Israel from Iranian missiles. Coupled with the fact that Saudi and the Gulf states know that the US can’t protect their desalination plants along with everything else I’m not surprised they don’t want this escalation to happen.

And so it goes on.

You said: It reminds me of the start of the war when there were lots of posters on here cheering the US and Israel in attacking

Yet have not been able to provide any examples of people cheering the start of the war on here.

If the cheering was a major theme on here there would be lots of examples.

Is Trump trying to confuse them into surrender ?

Go to bed and there are no new headlines on the war. Get up, do stuff then check the news, find that there was maybe headlines but there are new headlines that the headlines that were maybe there as one slept are now cancelled.

It's confuses the hell out of me.

Maybe we need to sign up for Trumps "Truth Social Preview". For only $100k a month you get Trumps Truths before anyone else.

I wonder if Iran have signed up. If they do it could be interesting. Because if Trump takes their money he will be breaking his own sanctions ?

Ammo counting. Been known since day one.

Last month Trump promised Ukraine they could build their own Patriots under license. He cancelled that the other day.

Likely someone told him about the supply chain and that the US can't spare parts.

I don't have time to do homework for you Twigs. You can easily google the threads. Perhaps google the shocking responses on the Minab school girl murder thread. So many people on there saying it was an Iranian missile without even pausing to breathe because they are the bad guys.

you were talking about a very specific thing which was people on here cheering on the start of the Iran war.

Moving goalposts seems to be your speciality - first you move them away from just the MN community and now you are trying to move them to an incident which is not relevant to Mumsnetters cheering on the start of the war.

No one knew what caused that missile at first so people were guessing. Some guessed that it could have been caused by an Iranian missile (wrong), some people blamed Israel (wrong) and some people blamed the US.

The Minab school incident was shocking and tragic. Not something to use to try to score points on a completely different topic which is whether people on MN were cheering on the start of the Iran war (they were not cheering on the death of the school girls either by the way).

Do you have examples of this cheering on, by many on this thread? You keep making sweeping claims 🙄

I don't think there has ever been any US strategy at all, especially not with Trump at the helm. Remember, he is a narcissist, has a terrible temper and can't deal with any threats to his ego so being 'a loser' is not something he can deal with. However, he also has experts warning him about the US SPR, the bond market, the possibility of him causing a global depression, etc. He is, as always very concerned about markets too.
So I don't think he is trying to confuse the Iranians into anything or confuse ordinary civilians. He is confused himself!
Ultimately, my money would be on the situation escalating further rather than a long lasting peace being reached 'soon' as per Trump.

Lots of whooshing going on!
I will follow @trumpredcard's sensible advice at this point rather than wasting more of my time.

Do you still not understand the chief point I made at all?

You're even copying my posts about whooshing.

You are wasting your time talking shit about people on here cheering on the war in Iran yes.

Absolutely no plan at all, remember when him and Musk were best buddies and Musk gutted "wasteful" US departments under the DOGE project. They got rid of all the Iran experts.

In terms of strategy, none of the current American administration are capable of it, bomb, threaten and bully is their strategy. Anyone with knowledge has been purged.

Technically the last War America "won" was WW2, although that was really won by the Soviets on the Eastern front with 27 million casualties, 10m who were civilians. Another fact that Trump didn't know.

It will escalate and escalate, Trump is lying to America and saying that it's the Iranians who are untrustworthy, which means that the only solution will be on the battlefield as how can Trump negotiate with monsters and sell it to Americans.

It really is the fall of Rome with Trump as the crazy Emperor. It will be difficult for some time but overall the World (especially the Global Majority) will emerge better place.

Lieutenant Daniel Davis was uncharacteristically angry in his last 2 videos. Especially ar the EURCOM commander who stated he might be forced to decide between defending Israel or the Homeland.

From the ipaper today:

“Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Just days after US President Donald Trump so eloquently threatened to “beat the f**king shit” out of Iran, he has again backed down at the last minute.

In the weeks after the war began on 28 February, Trump still had the power to move markets with his on-again, off-again pronouncements. But the news that he had decided to “cancel the attack” and give negotiations with the Iranians more time is unlikely to elicit more than a collective shrug by oil traders, let alone any drop in prices for struggling Americans.
Traders realised weeks ago that the President’s declarations are not worth the space on Truth Social that they are afforded. His Saturday night post was a classic of the genre.
“The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II,” Trump thundered. But then came an immediate corner turn. “Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off,” he announced, claiming – with a characteristic spelling error – that “the perimeters [sic] of a deal” had now been agreed.

“In fact, there is no indication that any breakthrough is at hand, or that a deal could emerge “rapidly”, as the President suggested. Instead, in a statement issued in Riyadh, the government of Saudi Arabia revealed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had strong-armed the President earlier on Saturday.”

“In what is reported to have been an unusually candid call with Trump, the Crown Prince, known as MBS, “stressed the need for the predominance of the language of dialogue to reduce escalation” – diplomatic-speak for “we told the President to knock it off”.
“Saudi Arabia’s message to Washington is becoming increasingly clear,” said analyst Danny Citrinowicz, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council, “if the United States launches major strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will likely bear the immediate consequences.”
“For Gulf leaders,” he added, “preserving regional stability has become a higher priority than pursuing a decisive confrontation with Tehran.””

“Iran’s retention of military capability to target its regional neighbours is leading to a sea change in their approach to the conflict. MBS – the leader accused by US intelligence of orchestrating the murder and dismemberment of US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 – now finds himself in the extraordinary position of being the voice of reason. On Saturday, he was the one to tell Trump that the White House no longer holds the cards to win the Iran conflict.
The Iranians are fully aware of these shifting dynamics. By enforcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and unleashing its Houthi proxies to launch pre-emptive attacks last week on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory in co-ordination with armed Iraqi groups, the regime in Tehran has signalled its resilience and its determination.
Last week also saw Trump belatedly concede that the US weapons stockpile is running low after five months of fruitless conflict and growing anxiety that hostilities could spiral beyond the Gulf.”

“Last weekend, Ukraine targeted an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea that Kyiv claimed was carrying military equipment to Russia. In Riyadh and other Gulf capitals, minds are being concentrated by the possibility of an even wider conflict. Regional leaders also fear that Trump is insufficiently disciplined and patient to bring negotiations with Iran to a successful conclusion.
In the days ahead, much may again depend on discussions between Oman and Iran over the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
With Iran determined to charge either tolls or “service fees” for vessels passing through its waters, the Omanis have floated proposals for both countries to benefit financially from their oversight of the Strait. In May, Trump threatened to attack Oman – a US ally – if its leaders did not “behave” and abandon plans to charge their own fees on vessels transiting the strategic waterway.”

“Iran is bringing Trump only misery, with polling showing that just 28 per cent of the public approve of the President’s stewardship of the conflict, and a dismal 21 per cent of voters giving his handling of soaring petrol prices the thumbs-up.
It has been 17 months since Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, accusing him of lacking the ability to win his country’s war with Russia.
This weekend, Saudi Arabia’s leader delivered exactly the same message to Trump about Iran, with the added potency of it being true.”

Excerpt From
“Trump gambled everything on Iran - now he’s the weakest player of all”
Simon Marks
The i Paper
https://apple.news/AjbS16UjFTn-dwtP5M9u2wA
This material may be protected by copyright.

If the Iranian vessel was transporting military equipment to Russia, as alleged, this would indicate that Iran has spare capacity and ipso facto, the ability to continue launching attacks itself. Combine that with the resilience they have shown in absorbing attacks, and the world could be looking at some version of war, dragging into 2027.

How long will it take for someone in the administration to convince Trump that based on evidence so far, the war is unlikely to yield a zero sum result in US favour. Both parties now need to agree on their negotiable and non-negotiable points, so they can move on to a diplomatic, win-win solution,

A lot of GPS chips fit into a shoebox.

But a CNC lathe to turn a rocket nozzle cone is pretty big. Russia is one of the few countries in the world that can make alloys used in jet engines. So at component level .... what to say ? Supply chains are complex.

However, the SoH is only about 24 NM wide. And rockets with that range can be made from water pipes with sugar as fuel. Apparently. Although much of that is Hamas and Hezbollah propaganda I suspect. Physics and all that.

I do think Ukraine played a blinder. They yelled out - "Hey Trump, you forgot about the Caspian".

And Trump replied by reversing on his promise to let Ukraine make Patriots.

Really, and how to put this without using expletives.. when it comes to nations having the upper hand.... every fucking nation has the upper hand over Trump in this war. Because Trump is only interested in enriching himself. And Trump is a fucking idiot.

On the latter point, if anyone does not belive me on that, then please come to the ongoing Trump thread that I post on to explain why I am wrong. All are welcome. I will put a link on my next post.

Trump thread is here :

Page 9 | The Reaper Should Have Gone To SpecSavers - Trump Thread #168 | Mumsnet

If you want evidence that Trump is an idiot, come and see.

If you think Trump is a genius and is playing 5D chess, please please please come and explain how that works.

If you are some sort of Islamophobe who says, "Islam is not compatible with Western Culture", then feel free to start another thread about it, as you often do.

If you are antisemitic..., please fuck off.

Now, on the Iran war. Does anyone have Breitbart? Because this CNN headline caught my eye.

Palestinian Christians call on US evangelicals to stop ignoring their plight | CNN

What is Western right-wing news saying about this ? Because if they are making a big deal about this, I can see a major pivot from Trump coming soon. We all know how he is reactionary towards the news.

Does anyone have Breitbart? Because this CNN headline caught my eye.

Breitbart is firmly on the Pro Trump, Israel First side of the aisle. It's initial funding was by billionaire Robert Mercer, a major Trump donor in his first election. Mercer has helped fund anti Muslim ads
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/04/05/robert-mercer-money-helped-fund-anti-muslim-ads-2016-election-donald-trump/491400002/

Breitbart no longer has the influence it had pre 2020, especially post Bannon. Ironically, the late Andrew Breitbart said that "politics is downstream from culture," aka who shapes the culture feeds into societal values, media/entertainment and these then dictate political outcomes rather than the other way around.

What is Western right-wing news saying about this ? Old school aerial TV news not much at all as the likes of Murdoch's Fox News are firmly on the Pro Israel side and very rarely criticise Israel or have any one anti war on anymore.

Thankfully, traditional media is largely dead on the right and only watched by an older demographic.

Most others have moved on to alternative media platforms like YouTube and Rumble. The largest platforms like Candace Owens (averages 1 million+ views per episode) and Tucker Carlson (ironically fired by Fox) reach in important demographics are dwarfing old school media. They've both talked extensively about Christian evangelicals and Tucker interviewed Munther Isaac in April 2024

Orthodox Nun in Jerusalem last year:

Persecuted Christians this year (he travelled to Jordan):

I can see a major pivot from Trump coming soon. We all know how he is reactionary towards the news

Unfortunately not, Tucker spoke to him for hours before this recent war (about Hormuz etc), Trump ignored him. He has been derogatory to his base and people like MTG, Massie, Joe Kent etc. His behaviour has losr 40% of the 2024 MAGA coalition according to Republican pollster Rich Baris. Whatever made him do this (Epstein blackmail, assassination attempts, dodgy information) hasn't changed.