US - Iran Peace agreement Part 3

[TopPocketFind]

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/conflict-in-the-middle-east/5535141-us-iran-peace-agreement-part-2

Trump demanded war compensation from Iran on Monday in a reversal of the six-point ultimatum presented to Washington as Tehran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump snubbed the proposal in a message on Truth Social, saying: “It is an interesting idea because now I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran,” Trump said, adding: “I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations.”

What he said in more detail is “Now I am likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous, as led initially by Gen Soleimani, including the families of those killed on the USS Cole, and thousands of others killed in combat,” he wrote on Truth Social.

“Additionally, compensation should be paid to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protesters that Iran has killed over the last 50 years, not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last five months.”

Trump has sought to increase pressure on Iran. An hour after his first post demanding war reparations from Tehran, he broadened their scope to include the victims of recent wars throughout the region.

“Also, with respect to the Iran negotiations, Iran should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!” he wrote.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/10/trump-demands-iran-pay-compensation-for-decades-of-us-soldier-deaths

Past presidents used sanctions. Trump has said they didn’t go far enough

Trump’s latest pivot to economic issues with Iran is something of a flip-flop.

Trump has long derided past presidents who used sanctions to limit Iran’s economic ability to pay for its military and nuclear development. In a speech last week in Las Vegas, he defended the bombing, missiles and drone attacks that began on Feb. 28 by indicating that the sanctions from previous administrations that date back to November 1979 had failed to succeed.

“It’s been 47 years, but really, it’s been 50 years because they’ve been saying 47 for three years, it’s been 50 years,” Trump said. “And no other president has done what you should have done a long time ago, because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, can’t have it.”

The Iranian economy has suffered gravely because of the war, with the International Monetary Fund estimating the overall economy shrinks by 5.4% and the Iranian government recently reporting an annual inflation rate of 88.6%.

The U.S. Treasury Department said average loadings of Iranian oil have decreased from 1.8 million barrels per day before the war to less than 500,000 barrels per day over the past month.

The U.S. economy — the world’s largest — has continued to grow, but inflation is elevated and borrowing costs have risen in ways that have hurt Trump’s popularity and led to disapproval of the Iran war.

A senior U.S. official, insisting on anonymity to discuss strategy, said the U.S. military has set back Iran’s ability to produce, sell and ship oil and other energy resources. The administration sees the naval blockade of the strait and sanctions as effective and views Trump as having additional options that can be cranked harder in the weeks and months ahead.

Trump is essentially arguing that U.S. voters are better able to tolerate any economic inconveniences than Iranians, who have been in a state of economic hardship for years.

www.wliw.org/radio/news/trump-pivots-back-to-sanctions-for-iran-as-other-strategies-to-end-his-war-fizzle/

From The New Republic:

“Iran announced on Monday that it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane that carries around a fifth of the world’s oil supply, until the U.S. agrees to its demands, which include the lifting of sanctions, the payment of reparations and the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and ending the blockade that Trump believes will ultimately lead to victory. The strait had previously been reopened in response to ceasefire agreements. Now, Iran—not Trump—is playing hardball. And there’s little reason to believe that even the economic chokehold Iran is currently facing will cause its leaders to bend anytime soon, especially since they’re well aware of the damage that the war—in particular its steroidal impact on the price of gas, fertilizer, and other essential goods—is doing to the GOP’s bid to retain control of Congress in the November midterms.
“Ever since the war began, Iranian leaders have insisted that they are prepared to withstand crippling economic sanctions and devastating airstrikes in large part because they believe that Trump and congressional Republicans are far less willing to face the rising prices that have accompanied the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So far, it’s hard to argue with that read. Trump is historically unpopular on the economy; his net approval on inflation is underwater. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are facing an electoral bloodbath that could equal the 2006 wipeout. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, seem more than willing to withstand a blockade until the midterms and to use those elections to their benefit. The only question now is if Trump folds before the midterms or if allows the war to continue indefinitely—an eventuality that would almost certainly hand the White House to Democrats in 2028. ”
“The war in Iran is already, strategically speaking, one of the biggest foreign-policy blunders in American history. Iran will likely emerge from the conflict, whenever it ends, stronger than before. The U.S., meanwhile, has lost much of what was left of its global credibility, along with the majority of its supply of munitions. But the war is also the capstone of one of the biggest political blunders in American history. Less than two years ago, voters elected Trump because they were frustrated about the state of the economy. Since retaking office, he has done seemingly everything he can to make that economy even worse—and make an ever-increasing number of those voters hate him. ”
“The frenetic nature of Trump’s presidency makes it hard, if not impossible, to tell one overarching story about it. Every week, it seems, features at least three middle-of-the-night tweetstorms, two historic corruption scandals, and one other news-generating disgrace that eats up several days of media coverage. In just a year and a half, his administration has launched a global trade war, decimated much of the U.S. government, kidnapped the president of a sovereign nation, launched a war against another, all while deploying masked paramilitary goons to snatch people off of the street in our communities and trying (usually without success) to prosecute its critics. In this time, Trump has also survived two historic scandals, one relating to his long-time friendship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the other involving ongoing self-dealing and corruption that has netted he and his family billions—and that would make a politician in the Gilded Age blush. There’s a lot going on, in other words. ”
“And so here we are. Even Trump’s voters are fed up. Dean Rosenbrook, a farmer who recently attended a Trump rally in Wisconsin, said he planned on voting for Republican Congressman Dean Van Orden, who is backed by Trump, but that he wants the Iran war to end because fuel and fertilizer prices are “killing us.” The economy, meanwhile, is sputtering. July’s jobs report, released last week, unexpectedly showed that the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs that month, while totals from May and June were revised down by 100,000. For the first time in over a decade, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that a plurality of voters say they prefer Democratic stewardship over the economy. Trump’s overall economic numbers are historically bad and have fallen 31 points since he returned to office.
Congressional Republicans, particularly those in vulnerable seats, are campaigning in the constant shadow of these political storm clouds. But Iran’s leaders can see them, too, and that’s why they’re playing hardball over the Strait of Hormuz. All Trump can offer, meanwhile, is hollow reassurance that “it always works out.” That adage may be true for him, but it rarely works out for the people caught in his blast ”

Excerpt From
“Trump Is Trapped in His YOLO War in Iran”
The New Republic
https://apple.news/AvAwXoFOvRO6kiUFCRRxp-g
This material may be protected by copyright.

It looks like stalemate.

Though Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, tells Bloomberg News in an interview that the US and Iran are close to “some sort of an arrangement.”

“Things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or a deal,” Asif tells Bloomberg. “The signals in the last two-three days are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement,” he adds.

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-and-iran-are-close-to-some-sort-of-arrangement-pakistani-defense-minister-tells-bloomberg/

The US military fired on a Panamanian-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman yesterday after accusing it of trying to evade the American blockade on Iranian ports.

The military said the vessel had ignored warnings to stop, prompting an American helicopter to fire missiles into the engine room of the M/V Vela Nova, disabling the ship.

Earlier this week, Trump snubbed Iran’s six conditions for reopening the strait, which included “payment in full” for damage inflicted on Iran throughout the war.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-hormuz-nuclear-deal-oil-news-b3030821.html

5 charts show how nearly 6 months of war have hammered Iran's economy
(the charts are in the Business Insider article linked to)

1. Oil exports have plummeted

Oil exports, the backbone of Iran's economy, are plummeting, indicating that the nation could be cash-strapped as the war drags on.

The American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran estimates that Iran's oil exports dropped to a low of about 65,000 barrels a day in May — down 69% from the 2.12 million barrels a day it exported before the war.

Estimates for June and July vary. The ACNL estimates that oil exports rebounded to 1.7 million barrels a day in June and hit 967,000 barrels a day in July, primarily due to increased demand from China.

Researchers from Capital Economics said that Iran's oil exports likely fell to "close to nothing" in July, after the blockade was reinstated. The firm pointed to reports that Iran hasn't loaded any oil tankers at Kharg Island, its main export terminal for crude, for at least a week.

The nation is also "less well placed" to cope with the naval blockade now than it was in April, Capital Economics' Jackson said, pointing to how usable foreign exchange reserves had likely dwindled since the start of the war.

The blockade could cut off as much as 70% of Iran's export income, according to an estimate from Oxford Economics.

2. Economy on track for sharpest contraction in 38 years

Iran's real GDP is expected to contract 5.4% year-over-year in 2026, according to a July estimate from the International Monetary Fund.

A decline of that magnitude would mark Iran's worst economic contraction since 1988, the year oil prices plummeted and delivered a devastating blow to the nation's oil revenue.

Given that oil exports accounted for around 11% of Iran's pre-war GDP, Iran's imports need to fall by around 75% to to make up for the loss of export income, Capital Economics' Jackson estimated.

"It's certainly the case that Iran's economy is struggling," he added.
Iran's economy was already "unravelling" at the end of last year, researchers at the FDD wrote in a note, adding that the total economic damage of the war had likely mounted to around $144 billion — or 40% of Iran's pre-war GDP.

"The US naval blockade has proven to be the most economically precise instrument deployed," the think tank said.

3. Currency is trading near record lows

Iran's currency plummeted to a record low against the US dollar this summer. The greenback was worth around 190,000 rials at the start of August — representing the lowest-ever value of Iran's currency.

The rial has since recovered slightly, with the dollar being worth around 185,000 rials on Monday, according to data from Bonbast, an Iranian foreign exchange data collector.

4. Inflation is soaring

Prices in Iran are still soaring, a consequence of the rial being severely devalued, Capital Economics said.

Inflation in Iran increased 62% on an annual basis in June, according to data from the nation's statistical center. The IMF expects inflation to increase to an average annualized rate of 68.9% by the end of the year, per its latest July outlook.

5. The Misery Index has reached a new record

Economic sentiment in Iran is at a low point. The Misery Index, a sentiment gauge that's calculated by adding Iran's point-to-point inflation rate and the unemployment rate, hit 91.1 this spring, the highest level ever recorded, according to data from Iran's statistics center.

Iran's unemployment rate rose to around 7% in the first quarter, according to the Iranian Labour News Agency.

The nation lost around 630,000 manufacturing jobs in the first quarter, Iran's statistics center said. The war has produced around 1 million direct job losses, Gholamhossein Mohammadi, Iran's deputy labor minister, said.

"Industrial damage produced an employment catastrophe," the FDD said, pointing to factories that have been destroyed by military strikes.

www.businessinsider.com/iran-economy-war-impact-oil-exports-inflation-unemployment-gdp-currency-2026-8

From the ipaper:

With every day that President Donald Trump prolongs his war on Iran, his country becomes weaker, in at least three ways.
The first is the jarring fact that the United States, by most measures the most powerful nation on Earth, is losing a contest of asymmetrical warfare to a third-rate military power.
Second is the shocking number of high-tech weapons that it’s depleted in this war – more than half of its pre-war inventory of what Pentagon planners call “key munitions”. This leaves gaps, which will take three or four years to fill, in America’s ability to fight future wars that might truly threaten its security interests.
Finally, there is the geopolitical effect of those first two disasters. Military and intelligence officials worldwide are watching this war and adapting their strategies so they might better face down the West’s great superpower in a crisis and possibly, if it escalates to conflict, win a war.
China, Russia, and North Korea have closely observed America’s wars over the past few decades and come away impressed, even daunted. Beginning with the first Gulf War in 1991 and accelerating with those in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, as well as skirmishes in Panama, Syria, and various battlefields in the “War on Terror”, they’ve seen what the US military can do.”
“America had integrated its formerly disconnected branches into a seamless force; developed and then mastered the use of precision-guided munitions (“smart bombs”); woven the new technology into real-time intelligence networks and computerised command-control systems; and, more recently (though still at an early stage), fused all of these innovations with artificial intelligence.
Now, US rivals see the downside of that reliance on high tech. American commanders are so seized on lethal firepower as the measure of military might that they fired off more than half of their stockpile of cruise missiles – each costing between $1.6m and $3.6m – at as many targets as they can find, as if at some point, in Trump’s words, the Iranians would scream that they’d had enough and surrender. They are oblivious to the fact that Iran is fighting a different sort of war and has enough missiles and other weapons to win it – or at least, avoid losing, which amounts to the same thing.
US commanders have also found themselves firing $4m (£3m) Patriot air-defence missiles to shoot down $30,000 (£22,200) Iranian drones – a cost ratio that cannot be sustained. Even so, some of those drones have done considerable damage to energy facilities of US allies and even to US military bases in the Middle East.
“This new twist – technology that can be built in great quantities for little money – has turned what was once the source of the US military’s edge into its gravest vulnerability. Ironically, the US invented the first armed drones back in October 2001, but its higher-ups didn’t take the new weapon seriously and assumed lesser powers would take decades to duplicate the feat.
This drone-dominant era plays to China’s strengths. About 20 years ago, Beijing’s military scientists started adapting to America’s technical innovations. They developed anti-satellite (Asat) weapons, which could disable the GPS satellites that guide smart bombs to their targets with pinpoint accuracy. They built “swarms” of cheap anti-ship missiles (and, later, drones) that, in a war, could disable aircraft carriers steaming into the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.”
“The war in Iran tells Chinese strategists that they’ve been on the right track. Asats can turn America’s smart bombs into dumb bombs. And launching swarms of cheap missiles will compel US commanders to empty their already-depleted arsenals of defensive missiles – leaving the fleet wide open to attack.
As for Russia, the idea of a Moscow-ordered assault against Nato seems remote. Vladimir Putin’s army can’t make much headway against Ukraine, much less pose a threat to nations farther west. But this is no longer a meaningful standard. By any measure, Ukraine is now the strongest army in all Europe. The front line in the Russia-Ukraine war is a massive “kill zone” in which no tank or soldier – Russian or Ukrainian – can advance without getting spotted and clobbered by a drone loitering overhead. But imagine Russia fighting a country that hasn’t built a million drones. Russian drones could pin the defenders in place, and then Russia’s tanks and infantry could mount an assault with little resistance.”
“None of this is to say that Russia, China or any other country is about to declare war on the United States or its allies – or that it would win if it did. For one thing, the fact that the US has fought so many wars in the past few decades is, itself, an advantage. Its soldiers, pilots, sailors, logistics units, intelligence adjuncts, etc – all personnel in a volunteer military – have amassed experience and expertise. This can’t be said of Chinese troops, none of whom have ever fired a shot in real battle. (China last fought a war in 1979 – a 27-day campaign against Vietnam – and didn’t do well.) Nor can it be said of the Russians, whose soldiers are mainly desperate draftees whose officers are discouraged from taking initiative, and whose supply lines can’t be held for more than a few miles.
Still, anyone looking at America’s performance in Iran these past six months sees a gold-plated military establishment unleashing firepower with stunning speed and accuracy but sluggish at adapting new technology or adjusting to an adversary’s innovations – thus ignoring the axiom that “the enemy gets a vote” in how to fight a war, even a war that you start.
Less than halfway into his second term, Trump has turned the United States into a country that its allies don’t respect and its enemies needn’t fear.

Excerpt From
“America's greatest strength is becoming its biggest weakness”
Fred Kaplan
The i Paper
https://apple.news/AB0Cqo3aITIyUvr0V7riqUQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

After all, two sides to a coin.

I think it is unhelpful to look at the effects of this war on the Iranian economy and think anything but that the Iranian people have a greater capacity to endure deprivation than the US population has willingness to accept the resulting COL increases on their more privileged life.

The stats from @JadeHare 's post lays bare the US conceit that throwing money at 'traditional'' weaponry leads to victory. Will they will learn quickly enough to change strategy? Will their defence industry be happy with producing 'cheap' products instead?

There is informed speculation that Iran's strategy is simply to endure and outlast Trump's presidency. Under an authoritarian government this should not be a major problem.

When it comes to talking about economic pressure that can lead beck to pressure that kicked off the protests anyway.

Anyhow, when it comes to the value of the Rial v USD, does it really matter ?

It's nor as if Iranian shops will be stocked with US goods. And there is a blockade in the Gulf too. Anything being imported will likely be in the via the Caspian.

It should also be noted that smuggled oil into Pakistan is valued at $1 billion. Iran might be making less, but it's not without workarounds, hence the belief that they will prevail.
And while there is division, many local Iranians have rallied around their country, against the US and Israel.
The whole thing is just a sinkhole where only Trump, his family and his associates make money.

Yes both sides obviously have their challenges. The US challenges are noted but also, the problems with the Iranian economy are very real and measurable.

A struggling economy is more likely to lead to internal dissent as we saw earlier in the year. In the end, only the Iranian people can overthrow their government and it's complacent if anyone thinks they never could just because they haven't so far.

I think Red is missing the point in questioning whether the value of the Rial v USD really matters. The Iranian economy is fucked and getting worse all the time, no matter which measure you use.

CNN: Trump’s Iran strategy depends on economic pain. The pain is mounting

Deepening poverty, rising household debt, rampant inflation, hidden unemployment.

The indicators for Iran’s economy signal a deepening crisis on multiple fronts – and at least one official news outlet is not shy about reporting it.

“Workers are constantly indebted to everyone and everything,” according to the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA).

Hossein, a 35-year-old in Tehran who lives with his family, told the agency that he now used “credit apps” on daily commuting or buying a small meal.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has frequently warned of the social consequences of Iran’s economic meltdown, and even state media acknowledge the risk of renewed social unrest.

As long as inflation, unemployment, declining purchasing power and a sense of inequality persist, “social discontent will continue to reproduce itself,” state news agency IRNA reported last month.

Earnings are certainly not keeping up with inflation, according to government statistics. The rate of inflation for food has soared by nearly 130% over the past 12 months; the wages of low-paid workers have grown by less than half of that.

The government has recently warned it may add to the pain by reducing gasoline subsidies, which would trigger a new wave of inflation and potentially lead to higher unemployment.

In the past, raising the price of gasoline triggered protests.

“Our economy today is like a patient suffering from severe bleeding,” according to Albert Baghzian, professor of economics at Tehran University. “Introducing a gasoline shock is akin to delivering a fatal blow to livelihoods,” he told ILNA.

The International Monetary Fund has projected that the Iranian economy will shrink 6% this year, largely due to lost output and physical damage caused by the conflict. At the scale of a national economy, that figure represents an enormous destruction of wealth and livelihoods.

Even a swift resolution of the conflict with the United States would take months to feed into a better economic picture, according to analysts.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/10/middleeast/trump-iran-economic-pain-intl

There is also the matter of sanctions for decades. Yet the countries keep going. As does Cuba, DPRK, Russia.

A lot of places are just not in the Global Village. So they have a resilience built in, as you said above.

So while Trump is out there trying to bully countries out of their natural resources to keep the US supplied, other places have made alternate arrangements.

I think many people forget that it is not long ago that products in the west used to be seasonal. And if the shop does not have them, then people don't buy them. Iran has never really been part of the global thing.

Where I live is still pretty much seasonal place.

CNN: Trump is betting on economic pressure

As negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz drag on, the White House appears to believe that time – and Iran’s deteriorating economy – is on its side.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that over time, Iran’s leverage in the strait of Hormuz would erode as other countries build pipelines to avoid the chokepoint.

Israel’s far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has argued that destroying Iran’s economy offers the most effective route towards overthrowing the regime.

The US has huge economic leverage over Iran through sanctions and the ability to block or limit the release of its frozen overseas assets.

“The proceeds from a deal would ease fiscal pressure but would not fully address the public’s deep economic grievances, so political control will still rest on force,” Eurasia concluded.

The published 2026 budget already cuts real spending by 38%.

There is – or at least has been – one bright spot: oil exports. The budget this year targeted exports of 1.77 million barrels per day (bpd) at $55 per barrel.

Exports have averaged 1.6 million bpd so far, but at prices in the low $80s.

That silver lining may not last as the US naval blockade bites. No oil has been exported from Kharg Island since the end of July, according to shipping data.

edition.cnn.com/2026/08/10/middleeast/trump-iran-economic-pain-intl

The war in Iran impacts people around the world on a day by day basis. What happens in Gaza, or Sudan, or various other conflicts doesn't much. Therefore the focus is on Iran.

I'm not sure of the point you're making. Of what significance are happenings in Gaza and Sudan relevant or irrelevant to the war in Iran?

@Ihatetomatoes possibly you meant to post that on the thread Hamas to disarm?

My mistake. Thank you for pointing out.

Iran International: Iran loses ground in oil market as neighbors rebound

OPEC oil production continued its sharp post-war recovery in July, but Iran remained a notable exception, with output still around a quarter below pre-war levels and its oil revenues taking an even steeper hit.

Iran produced 2.478 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up just 26,000 bpd from June, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia increased output by about 590,000 bpd, Iraq by 665,000 bpd and Kuwait by 393,000 bpd. Combined crude production among OPEC members rose by about 1.66 million bpd in July to 23.63 million bpd.
Iran’s export revenues have recovered even more slowly.

Commodity intelligence firm Kpler told Iran International that daily deliveries of Iranian crude to Chinese refineries fell from more than 1.7 million bpd in March and April to less than 500,000 bpd in July.

Kpler said Iran offered its crude at a discount of more than $5 a barrel in July, while transportation costs exceeded $10 a barrel. Once payments to intermediaries were included, it estimated that at least 25% of the nominal value of Iran’s oil sales was lost before the proceeds reached the country.

At July’s export volumes, Kpler estimated that crude delivered to China had a nominal value of about $1.2 billion. That compares with average monthly oil revenues of about $3.8 billion last year, according to OPEC estimates.

China has long been overwhelmingly the largest destination for Iranian crude, leaving Tehran particularly exposed to changes in purchases by Chinese refineries

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608124409

Iran struggles to restore output

Iranian production fell by nearly 1 million bpd between the beginning of the Middle East war and May, according to OPEC figures.

Over the following two months, it recovered by only about 200,000 bpd, reaching 2.478 million bpd in July. The pace of that recovery slowed sharply last month, with the 26,000-bpd increase leaving production roughly a quarter below pre-war levels.

The figures contrast with the much faster restoration of production elsewhere in the Persian Gulf following the severe disruptions caused by the war.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait accounted for much of OPEC’s July increase as producers took advantage of the temporary ceasefire to restore output. Despite the rebound, regional production remains well below levels before the conflict, with large volumes of Persian Gulf supply still offline.

The contrast is even sharper with the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May and has since sharply expanded production. OPEC continues to track UAE output in its monthly report despite its departure from the group.

OPEC estimates that UAE crude production reached around 3.78 million bpd in July, approximately 882,000 bpd above its level in the months preceding the war.
Venezuela also continued its recovery, with production reaching about 1.12 million bpd in July, up from around 940,000 bpd in January.

For Iran, however, the combination of depressed production, sharply lower deliveries to China and the costs associated with selling and transporting its crude means the financial recovery has lagged even further behind the rebound in output.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608124409

From the Washington Post:
“President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. has total control of the Strait of Hormuz. The reality on the water tells a different story.
Ship-tracking data shows that just 14 vessels on Tuesday crossed a waterway that routinely handled more than 130 a day before the war. Eleven of those ships took the route administered by Iran. Traffic was slow throughout July, with an average of 26 crossings a day, and in June, with 33 a day, as renewed Iranian attacks on ships cut short a deal to open the strait.
The disconnect shows how Tehran has managed to squelch traffic through the crucial energy chokepoint with relatively little military force, only a handful of drone and missile attacks on ships. Iran doesn’t need to defeat the U.S. Navy. It just needs shipping companies, captains and insurers to fear that defying it could put their ships at risk.”
“risk.
“Iran is using the fear factor of real physical risk to retain a measure of control,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “The risk-reward is simply not there for many global tankers.”
Trump pushed back Wednesday on social media, saying Iran has no way to force its will on the waterway with its armed forces decimated by the war and the country struggling with a spiraling economy.
“The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!,” the president said, “and there is nothing Iran can do about it.” He ended the post saying, “Praise be to Allah!””
“While the U.S. Navy has guided a number of tankers through the strait, taking some pressure off energy markets, it remains an effort around the margins. Iran’s grip on the strait has cost the world more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said last week.
Iran’s attacks have deterred captains from using the route along the Omani coast protected by the Navy. According to ship tracking firm Kpler, around half of the ships that risked crossing the strait in August chose the route administered by Iran. The other half chose to go dark when crossing, meaning their location beacons were off and their routes aren’t known. Only two out of the 166 crossings are known to have used the U.S.-backed route along Oman. ”
“The southern Omani corridor cannot presently be considered a reliably protected transit route,” said Dimitris Maniatis, founder and CEO of maritime-risk company Marisks.
“The International Energy Agency said Wednesday the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed again since June’s deal to open the waterway collapsed last month. The renewed disruptions have derailed a nascent recovery in oil supplies from the Gulf.
Last week, Trump said that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports meant the Strait of Hormuz was “sort of open right now,” though he acknowledged Tehran could still damage ships with missiles, drones and mines.
Continued disruption of oil and gas flows threatens to push energy and shipping costs higher, rekindle inflation and weigh on global growth. For Trump, it also risks turning a distant war—already more than five-months long—into a domestic liability through higher gasoline and consumer prices just months before the midterm elections. ”
“Control of the strait, which before the war carried about a fifth of the world’s oil, has become the main sticking point in talks to de-escalate tensions with Iran. Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran in April, then lifted it under his June deal to reopen the strait and begin winding down the war.
That ceasefire unraveled in early July after Iran targeted commercial ships around Hormuz and Washington accused Tehran of violating the deal. Trump resumed strikes and withdrew sanctions relief, while Iran again enforced its preferred shipping routes, effectively ending the truce.
Iran’s attacks have been sporadic. The United Arab Emirates said Iran struck one of its ships on Saturday, following hits on three others last week. Iran hasn’t attacked commercial vessels since the weekend. ”
“The uncertainty is a powerful deterrent. Iran doesn’t have to sink ships to control traffic—the perceived possibility of an attack can make a single voyage cost millions more to insure.
After easing following the June ceasefire, war-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit has risen to as much as 10% of a ship’s value, according to insurance broker Marsh. It was roughly 0.25% before the war. That could mean $3 million to $10 million in insurance costs for a single large tanker to transit, Marsh said.
While attacks at the Strait of Hormuz have abated for now, those at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea have turned deadly. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have widened the scope of the war by attacking ships there.”
“The Houthis struck the Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen on Tuesday, killing four sailors, according to Yemeni authorities. The ship was hit again as rescuers arrived to evacuate the crew.
The deaths were the first linked to Houthi attacks on shipping since the U.S.-Iran war began, according to MarineTraffic.
Seafarers on ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz still receive frequent warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy on marine radio, telling them to ask for permission before crossing. Meanwhile, those on vessels anchored near Oman occasionally hear the U.S. Navy warning vessels trying to run the blockade and exit the Persian Gulf to return to their last port of call.
U.S. forces fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship early Tuesday after it attempted to run the blockade. The crew ignored warnings to turn back, the U.S. military said.”

Excerpt From
“Trump Says Hormuz Is Under U.S. Control. Few Ships Are Listening.”
Georgi Kantchev, Rebecca Feng
The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AEumISiSmT8S36j3_hsv_uA
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So we have gone from bombing the Iranian Government into vanishing, to the Kurds will overthrow them. to a blockade will do it, to the price of onions in Iran will win, back to blockade, but keep the pressure on the price of onions.

Just throw everything at it rather than talk.

Oh, I forgot the fantastic MOU that Trump said was the solution to all.

Bit more serious for the people of Iran than the price of onions ... minimising it on here won't affect the reality on the ground.

What happened to the exploding oil wells and gas fields that people were so taken with a wee while back ?

I thought Iran was supposed to suffer catastrophic explosions that would bring the country to it's knees ? Is that all forgotten about now ?

I recall posters who said " won't happen cos geology and physics" were told they were wrong, and that Iran would collapse.

And now it is the price of onions instead of exploding oil wells.