Also from the ipaper:
“The memorandum of understanding was rushed through last month, partly so that it could be completed before Trump’s 80th birthday celebrations, which culminated with that UFC fight on the South Lawn of the White House.
Days before, the President flourished his Sharpie pen to add his signature to the document, in the historically ominous setting of the Palace of Versailles where the ill-fated treaty which brought the First World War to an end was hatched.”
“Just two pages long, the 14-point memorandum granted major concessions to Iran, such as sanctions relief and the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets. In return, Iran supposedly agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which, remember, was open when the war began.
The thorniest issue, the future of Iran’s nuclear programme and what to do with its stockpile of near-weapons-grade nuclear fuel, would be left to further talks, which have not yet produced any meaningful progress.
Such was the haste to deliver a face-saving ceasefire agreement before Trump’s birthday that key details were not adequately finessed or even addressed.”
“Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles did not even merit a mention, even though at various points of the conflict Trump had stated their annihilation was a paramount US war aim. How much control Iran would continue to exert over the Strait of Hormuz was a grey area clouded by ambiguity. Unsurprisingly, this speedily-drafted plan was dubbed the memorandum of misunderstanding.
Even the 60-day deadline set for a more comprehensive peace deal seemed wildly optimistic. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multilateral nuclear deal agreed upon in 2015 by the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, France, China and Germany, had taken almost two years of painstaking talks to finalise.”
“Iran has always played the long game, while Trump is preoccupied with daily news cycles. As the President told aides at the start of his first administration, in an edict which went to the heart of his modus operandi, every day should be treated as if it were a reality show with him always ending up on top.
Trump’s impatience, and the impulsiveness it engenders, has been on full display during this on-again-off-again conflict.
It is not just their widely different view of timeframes that sets Tehran and Washington apart. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, based on the carrots of financial inducements and the stick of threats of civilisational erasure, has run up against Iran’s ideological and theocratic approach to diplomacy.”
“Trump has been fighting a war of choice. The Islamic Republic has been fighting for its very survival. Repeatedly, over the course of a war now in its seventh month, Iran has been willing to absorb more military pain than the United States has been willing to suffer economic pain.
Suffice to say, oil prices spiked immediately after these renewed hostilities. Brent crude was up 6.6 per cent in after-hours trading, reaching almost $80 a barrel. Fuel and food prices will rise again.
While Trump made approximately $2.2bn during his first year back in office, according to his mandatory financial report released last week, American voters are feeling the crunch. So, too, are consumers the world over.
Still, it beggars belief that Trump was caught unawares when Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the conflict, despite the fact Pentagon military planners had been warning for decades of precisely this eventuality.”
“In resolving this crisis, it does not help that US diplomacy has such an amateur hour feel. The State Department has been hollowed out. US technical expertise, especially on questions involving the enrichment of uranium, is thin on the ground compared to previous administrations.
Trump has entrusted the diplomatic effort to his golf partner Steve Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and Vice President JD Vance, who, from the very start, has been an opponent of the war.
The 80-year-old President’s cognitive state is also coming under heightened scrutiny. “We had 111 missiles shot by the Islamic Republic of Japan,” he said at one point in Ankara when discussing the Iran crisis.
Sitting beside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump also asked reporters if anyone had “a question for President Putin” – recalling one of Joe Biden’s famous slip-ups.”
“In a sign of the ongoing threats posed by Iran, and his inability to thwart them, the President had to use an old plane as Air Force One to fly from the Nato meeting in Turkey to Britain overnight, rather than the new Boeing 747-8 gifted to him by Qatar which has just gone into service. Trump said he wanted to use the old plane, which often he has complained about, for “old time’s sake”.
But the switch came about following concerns from the Secret Service that the new plane, which was rushed into service, does not have adequate missile defence systems.
This is not a forever war. Trump has not made the mistake of committing tens of thousands of US troops and getting bogged down in another quagmire, as with Iraq or Afghanistan. Trump has told reporters he does not foresee a return to full-scale conflict.”
“But so far, Operation Epic Fury has been a failed war for the Trump administration. It set out to deny the Tehran regime a nuclear option, and has ended up handing them a potent new weapon, the Strait of Hormuz option.
A murderous regime which looked at the start of the year that it might be toppled by a public uprising, has been handed a lifeline by its mortal enemy, the “Great Satan”.”
Excerpt From
“Trump has struck 'sick' Iran again. But it's his mental state that's in question”
Nick Bryant
The i Paper
https://apple.news/AZxHU9S5vQ7Ctx5ve3zKsLg
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