US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

[JadeHare]

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

CNN now,Trump is speaking at his Cabinet meeting.

"Trump says he won't be rushed into a deal with Iran because "I don't care about the midterms"

President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed to strike a favorable deal to end the war with Iran, warning that the regime’s efforts to outlast him won’t work because “I don’t care about the midterms.”
“They thought they were going to outwait me, you know? We’ll outwait him, he’s got the midterms,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting, dismissing concerns about the war’s political toll at home.
“I don’t care about the midterms. Look what happened last night, that was a prelude to the midterms. People understand it,” he said, alluding to his endorsed candidate winning a Texas GOP Senate primary runoff.
The president expressed confidence that the US would soon reach an agreement to end the conflict, thought he cautioned that his administration is not yet satisfied with the terms — and is willing to resume fighting if it can’t secure its demands.
“We’re not satisfied with it, but we will be,” Trump said. “Either that, or we’ll have to just finish the job.”
He also touted the resumption of internet access in Iran as a sign the regime’s hardline stance was weakening, arguing that “their whole economic system is broken down.”
“They want to just make a deal,” he said. “I don’t think they have a choice.”"

So it's a Mexican standoff. Into November by the looks of it.

Thanks JadeHare!

One theory is that due to the Hajj pilgrimage happening right now certain GCC countries pressured Trump not to attack so as not to endanger pilgrims. That ends in a couple of days.

It's also really hot in the region right now not conducive to fighting if you're not used to hot weather.

@TopPocketFind you made some great posts in the previous thread hope you'll join us again.

True, but with Eid just around the corner, who knows what will happen.

I suspect it is oil price that is the trigger. He seems to want to keep it up.

I read somewhere today that the UAE are in bad shape financially, hence pulling out of OPEC.

Meanwhile energy bills in the UK are set to go up come July. And lives in the subcontinent continue to go from bad to worse.

It really has been a shit show.

A couple more soundbites from the cabinet meeting

Trump:

"The strait is gonna be open to everyone. It's international waters. We're gonna watch over it. Nobody is gonna control it."

"Oman will behave just like everyone else, or we'll have to blow them up"

"We're not talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money. No sanctions, no money, no nothing."

If Iran doesn't make concessions, then the Hegset] is gonna finish them off

Middle East countries "owe it to us" to join the Abraham Accords, and adds, "I'm not sure we should make the deal if they don't sign"

Trump: "We've been doing this for a few months. Vietnam lasted 19 years. Between two wars, we lost 13 souls. It's a terrible thing, but if you look at war casualties and deaths in wars for Vietnam and all that, they lost hundreds of thousands of people."

Trump: "We don't need oil. We don't need the strait. We don't need anything."

Yeah I just saw the Oman bit. From the POTUS who starts no wars…..

BBC News - US strikes Iran targets for second time in three days
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98r2qy5809o

From the article "The US military has carried out new strikes on Iran, targeting a military site in Bandar Abbas.

Centcom described its actions as "measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire"."

This challenges my reasoning.

To be fair, the IRGC have said that they have responded by attacking US bases in Kuwait. But yes, it seems like a ceasefire only in the fact that they are using that word. Same in Lebanon.

Yeah. How dare the Iranian Military have military bases in Iran.

My logic says that if an Iranian base in Iran is a threat to the US, then the answer is to pull US forces back a bit.

From Sky News

The latest intense wave of Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon are "terrifying", our special correspondent Alex Crawford reports from Beirut.

Up to 300 towns and villages south of the Zahrani River were given evacuation orders - some in the early hours of this morning - that have prompted "a mass exodus" from civilians, she says.

"They're in effect on-the-ground orders to get out of the area because, in their words, they're declaring the entire area, the entire south of Lebanon, a combat zone - and telling them, 'leave, or you risk dying and being injured'."

Israel and Lebanon agreed a 45-day ceasefire extension that remains in place, having been announced on 17 April.

But in effect, on the ground, there is no ceasefire, Crawford says.
"There are daily multiple bombings, primarily across the south. Israeli troops are occupying dozens of villages and towns in the south.
"The Israeli strategic objectives of destroying Hezbollah have clearly not succeeded."

This isn’t freedom’: anger, anxiety and tears as Iran’s internet flickers back

After 88 days of near-total blackout, first reactions to the return of partial connectivity were not celebratory

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/28/iran-internet-blackout-return-partial-connectivity

He did the meme!

The only good thing is that they've running out of young people to recruit, so in a few years many of these bases will be empty.

https://www.businessinsider.com/military-recruiting-methods-outdated-teenage-population-shrinking-2026-1

Spain being the voice of reason yet again:

The expansion of Israeli military operations in south Lebanon is “completely unacceptable” Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has said.
“Israel must accept that the other countries have exactly the same right that Israel has to have their own state and to have a state in peace and security,” Mr Albares said at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Cyprus.
“Israel has a right to have its state peacefully and in security, but the Palestinian people, the Lebanese people, have exactly the same right.”

“Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow ‘em up,” the president said.

From CNN. I missed that. From 17 hours ago as I post this.

Is there anyone Trump has not threatened ? I can think of Israel and Russia. Maybe China too, but he lost that tariff battle. Add Hungary and Argentina. No wait, Hungary changed their President in an election, so I think he did threaten the new guy ?

According to CNN:

Oman is at least the 15th country that he has either threatened to attack, left open the possibility of attacking, or actually attacked during his two terms as president. Nearly all of those instances occurred in the first 16 months of his second term, though some span both terms.

And he wants the Nobel peace prize? Sheesh!

Axios reported earlier a US-Iran deal has been reached with Trump still to sign off.

-Iran pledges not to pursue nuclear weapons
-US to consider sanctions relief and reconstruction pay
-Free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls
-60 day period to talk about nukes

If true, Iran gets what it wants

Strait of Hormuz tolls among major talking points in ceasefire deal
The memorandum to extend a fragile US-Iran ceasefire makes clear that Iran will not be able to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran will have to remove all mines from the vital waterway within 30 days, according to an official.

Iran's uranium stock to be aggressively negotiated during ceasefire
Among the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire is what will happen to Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a US official said.
The Islamic Republic has 440.9kg of uranium that is enriched up to 60 per cent purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Vice president JD Vance said yesterday evening that negotiators were trying to strike general terms on the highly enriched uranium settled in the tentative agreement, with the specifics to be hammered out in the ensuing talks.
Vance said the continued back and forth involved “a couple of issues on the nuclear stuff, the highly enriched stockpile, and also the question of enrichment".

Iran made 'significant concessions' in new deal, says Trump aide
The White House deputy chief of staff has claimed that Iran has made "many other concessions" besides agreeing to a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Stephen Miller told Fox News that the concessions have been “significant, material, and dramatic”, adding that they “would have been impossible only a short time ago”.
“But again, there is no deal until there is a deal; nothing is final until it is final,” he said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-strikes-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz-b2985678.html

Nuclear issues still to be negotiated

• According to two sources with knowledge, Iran gave the U.S. through the mediators verbal commitments about the scope of the concessions it's willing to make on suspending enrichment and giving up the nuclear material.
• The U.S. would agree to negotiate over lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period — though those steps would only be implemented as part of a final agreement that is verifiably implemented.
• U.S. forces that were mobilized in recent months would stay in the region during the 60-day period and only withdraw if a final deal is reached.

What to watch: The White House hopes the final differences will be resolved in the coming hours and that a deal will be announced on Sunday, the U.S. official said.

The official said it's possible the deal won't even last the full 60 days if the U.S. believes Iran is not serious about nuclear negotiations. On the other hand, the U.S. believes Iran's economic crunch provides an incentive to reach a full deal to remove sanctions and unfreeze its cash.

"It will be interesting to see how far Iran will be truly willing to go, but if they are capable of and want to change their trajectory, this next phase will force them to make some critical decisions on what they want to be as a country," the U.S. official said.

If Trump's demands regarding the Iranian nuclear program are met, the president is ready to go to great lengths to reset relations with Iran and give them the opportunity to pursue their full economic potential, which Trump thinks is "huge," his advisers say.

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear

God I hope this comes goes through.

Great the strait will be open and free, great no more bombs and no more nuclear programme, sadly still the same shitty regime for the Iranians.

Wonder what this means for Israel/Lebanon?

From the idependent:

“Unofficial reports suggest that a draft peace agreement is now in two parts, with shipping in the first part and the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme set aside for separate talks. If so, then this could take US-Iran relations back to roughly where they were before the war: hardly ideal, but better than where they are today.”

Excerpt From
“Voices: Is Trump’s threat to ‘blow up’ Oman a sign he regrets his war with Iran?”
Mary Dejevsky
The Independent
https://apple.news/AJn8x1mBkQbu3gtPzgMn9gw
This material may be protected by copyright.

And from the same article:

“Making common military cause with Israel, however, can be seen as a fateful decision for the United States, in that it meant effectively signing up to Israel’s agenda as well as its own. And this makes it doubly hard for the US to extract itself on its own terms. That Israel has renewed attacks on southern Lebanon and assassinated the new head of Hamas in Gaza in recent days could demonstrate that it is intent on using every hour of every day before any agreement takes effect. It might not be too far-fetched to suggest that Israel sees its interest in delaying any peace for as long as possible, or even preventing it altogether.
Nor is it so simple for Trump just to cast Israel off. At home, there is the long-standing US support for the state of Israel – support that Trump and his Republicans need. Abroad, there is the message that this could send about the ability, and the will, of the US to protect its allies.
There is a third, more personal, angle, too. Trump’s interest in and understanding of Israel comes in part via his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has become a ”

Excerpt From
“Voices: Is Trump’s threat to ‘blow up’ Oman a sign he regrets his war with Iran?”
Mary Dejevsky
The Independent
https://apple.news/AJn8x1mBkQbu3gtPzgMn9gw
This material may be protected by copyright.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told an international forum on Saturday that “status as of right now is that any deal will be a good deal.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Washington remains committed to its international security priorities, explicitly declaring that “we still have global obligations to ensure that, say, Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon”.

Hegseth made the remark during the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.