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Conflict in the Middle East

US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

832 replies

JadeHare · 27/05/2026 17:21

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation

OP posts:
Thread gallery
68
JadeHare · 21/06/2026 13:44

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 13:38

Good point. I just edited my post to say it's a blocked subject on my web. That is why I am asking.

I suppose, as a sort of comparison, we know the IRA got US funding. Not government, but NORAID. But they had no direct control. Is Iran and Hezbollah like that, or is it an actual Iranian force in Lebanon ? Or at what point between these two does the interaction sit ?

That's what I mean.

This is what AI tells me. No idea if it’s true or not.

AI Overview

Iran influences Hezbollah primarily by providing massive financial support, advanced weaponry, and direct operational guidance through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This backing allows Hezbollah to function as Iran’s most powerful regional proxy and the cornerstone of the "Axis of Resistance". 1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Iran’s influence is rooted in several key mechanisms:
Financial and Military Patronage: Iran reportedly provides Hezbollah with hundreds of millions of dollars annually. This funding enables the group to maintain a massive military arsenal (including precision-guided missiles and drones) and operate extensive socio-political and welfare networks in Lebanon. 1, 2]
Ideological Allegiance: Hezbollah's core ideology is deeply intertwined with the Iranian Revolution. The group pledges allegiance to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, viewing him as the ultimate religious and political authority. 1, 2, 3, 4]
Operational Command and Training: The IRGC's Quds Force works directly alongside Hezbollah leadership, helping to plan military strategies, train fighters, and establish local weapons manufacturing capabilities. Iranian advisors and officers have been stationed in Lebanon to assist Hezbollah in rearming and preparing for conflict. 1, 2, 3, 4]
Regional Strategic Alignment: While Hezbollah operates as an influential actor in Lebanese domestic politics, its broader geopolitical moves—such as opening military fronts or engaging in regional conflicts—are closely aligned with Tehran's foreign policy and national security goals. 1, 2, 3]

Hezbollah–Iran relations - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Iran_relations

OP posts:
RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 14:01

UNCLOS article 26 :

"Article 26

Charges which may be levied upon foreign ships

1. No charge may be levied upon foreign ships by reason only of their passage through the territorial sea.

2. Charges may be levied upon a foreign ship passing through the territorial sea as payment only for specific services rendered to the ship. These charges shall be levied without discrimination."

They can't charge a toll. That would be illegal. But they can charge for a service. That is legal.

And the owner of the territorial water can set conditions for transit. Such as a $1 per barrel insurance service charge. So technically not a toll.

It's a loophole in the law one could drive a supertanker through.

UNCLOS+ANNEXES+RES.+AGREEMENT

https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 14:06

JadeHare · 21/06/2026 13:44

This is what AI tells me. No idea if it’s true or not.

AI Overview

Iran influences Hezbollah primarily by providing massive financial support, advanced weaponry, and direct operational guidance through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This backing allows Hezbollah to function as Iran’s most powerful regional proxy and the cornerstone of the "Axis of Resistance". 1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Iran’s influence is rooted in several key mechanisms:
Financial and Military Patronage: Iran reportedly provides Hezbollah with hundreds of millions of dollars annually. This funding enables the group to maintain a massive military arsenal (including precision-guided missiles and drones) and operate extensive socio-political and welfare networks in Lebanon. 1, 2]
Ideological Allegiance: Hezbollah's core ideology is deeply intertwined with the Iranian Revolution. The group pledges allegiance to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, viewing him as the ultimate religious and political authority. 1, 2, 3, 4]
Operational Command and Training: The IRGC's Quds Force works directly alongside Hezbollah leadership, helping to plan military strategies, train fighters, and establish local weapons manufacturing capabilities. Iranian advisors and officers have been stationed in Lebanon to assist Hezbollah in rearming and preparing for conflict. 1, 2, 3, 4]
Regional Strategic Alignment: While Hezbollah operates as an influential actor in Lebanese domestic politics, its broader geopolitical moves—such as opening military fronts or engaging in regional conflicts—are closely aligned with Tehran's foreign policy and national security goals. 1, 2, 3]

Thanks for that. So it would appear that Iran can say STOP. So lets see if they can get past art 1 of the MOU.

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 14:08

charges may be imposed once the 60‑day window closes.

But then again, the US will be saying they can't be, so best wait & see what happens on that point, if we get to that point.

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 14:14

Iran claims Lebanon 'main topic' at peace talks with US

The United States and Iran are set to start a new round of talks in Switzerland on Sunday in a bid to finalise the Memorandum of Understanding signed last week. The teams have a timeframe of 60 days to resolve some of the more difficult issues such as what will happen to Iran's nuclear program and stockpiles of uranium.

However the talks have already been shrouded in uncertainty as Israel and Hezbollah - not parties to the agreement - have continued to clash in Lebanon, with Tel Aviv refusing to withdraw from the territory.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260621-middle-east-live-us-vice-president-jd-vance-arrives-in-switzerland-for-iran-peace-talks?

DrPrunesqualer · 21/06/2026 14:17

Similar charging happens in the Panama Canal

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 14:33

DrPrunesqualer · 21/06/2026 14:17

Similar charging happens in the Panama Canal

Canals don't count under UNCLOS. There is no freedom of navigation on them.

Same with the Bosporus. That has a separate agreement. And Turkey is not party to UNCLOS.

UNCLOS says no charge to transit. But services can be charged. What is defined as a service ? UNCLOS does not say. Pilots are a service for example. And UNCLOS does not say what can be charged for that service.

As a matter of interest, there is a Bill going through the US just now to charge fees for non US built ships to sail to US ports, That is, a fee to sail through US territorial water. I would say that is bad timing. But it has been in the works for a while. And that bill will likely be challenged in the courts.

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 15:17

Is this what standing up to Netanyahu looks like?

Trump: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 15:28

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 15:17

Is this what standing up to Netanyahu looks like?

Trump: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

No, this is what telling Iran to stop Hezbollah from attacking Israel looks like.

DrPrunesqualer · 21/06/2026 15:31

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 15:17

Is this what standing up to Netanyahu looks like?

Trump: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

I would hope Trump is targeting both Israel and Hezbollah

although obviously his current language to either is inappropriate

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 15:34

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 15:17

Is this what standing up to Netanyahu looks like?

Trump: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

This actually ties in with what we are talking about just above. I am sure if Trump knows what Hezbolla are paid, he will publish his info and evidence.

But yeah, how dare they cause trouble against an invading force.

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 15:41

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mosiz4zotx2t

JD Vance as Trump threatens to occupy Iran and "blow the shit out of them" -- "What has brought us to this moment is the president's leadership ... what we have already seen back home in the US is lower gas prices, we've seen the free flow of oil and gas, we've seen peace."

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

JD Vance as Trump threatens to occupy Iran and "blow the shit out of them" -- "What has brought us to this moment is the president's leadership ... what we have already seen back home in the US is lower gas prices, we've seen the free flow of oil and g...

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mosiz4zotx2t

JadeHare · 21/06/2026 15:47

Read this in the Independent, which I found quite interesting:

“Clues to how powerful Israel’s religious right has been in driving American policy lie not in conspiracies, but in two widely circulated documents that have led the US to war in the Middle East twice.
One, “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm”, was produced, officially, as a policy paper for Netanyahu in his first term as prime minister.
Written by Americans led by Richard Perle, a former under secretary of defence, it argued that Israel should get on the front foot and use a ‘doctrine of preemption” to weaken the threat from Syria by toppling Saddam Hussein, president of Iraq (yes, it is an odd argument).
Perle served as head and later as a member of George W Bush’s Defence Policy Board Advisory Committee, up to and after Iraq being invaded by a US-led coalition in 2003. Back then, America’s allies (chief among them the UK) were taken to war on false and faked intelligence.”
“Many of those pro-war lies were curated by another author of a Clean Break, Doug Feith, who was under secretary of defence before and after the invasion of Iraq.
David Wurmser, who ran the main defence agency set up to devise the propaganda and spread the case for war under then vice president Dick Cheney, was also an author of the seminal paper of 1996.
Wurmser is also the co-author of a new paper that presents Netanyahu with a blueprint of Israeli foreign policy, that is being closely followed by America in 2026.
“Israel 2048: A Blueprint for a Rising Asymmetric Geopolitical Power” makes the case for Israel to support a war to topple Iran.
It says Israel should bind itself closely into western defence infrastructures and offers a Judeo-Christian “endorsement” of the racist conspiracy theory that Europe is facing “civilizational erasure” through Islamic immigration - now part of US national strategy.
It makes no mention of the vast Palestinian death toll in Gaza as a result of Israel’s bombardment after the October 7 massacres inside Israel. At least 47,000 women and children have been killed by Israel in Gaza over the last three years.
“As opposed “to the US, Europe’s critical stance towards Israel will increase due to a combination of Muslim immigration and their failure to integrate and Europe’s demographic decline and loss of Christian identity,” Wurmser and co-author Barak Seener write.
“Together, these trends pose a significant threat to the future of Western civilization, leading to its decline and potential fall.”
“This new paper, which is enjoying wide circulation in Washington, provides theological and intellectual succor of Christian nationalists derived from the Old Testament (or the Torah), was first published by the UK’s Henry Jackson Society.
A rightwing British think tank, circulating a paper that happens to help drive US foreign policy on behalf of Israel, means that the paper has the stamp of intellectual validity - and looks less like domestic lobbying. If there is any foreign money behind the document then its authors would need to register as Foreign Agents in the US.
There is a straight intellectual line between “A Clean Break” and “Israel 2048”. They both subordinate US interests to a far right religious interpretation of what Israel’s interests were then, and are today. Far-right Israeli interests are deeply aligned with Christian Nationalism and evangelical beliefs strongly rooted in the Old Testament.
These Christian movements in the US are among the most loyal of Trump’s supporters. They agree that: “Israel stands at a historic inflection point. Zionism 2.0 – defined by regional power projection, technological primacy, and the civilizational anchor of the West presents historic opportunities,” as the new doctrine says.
“As the West grapples with demographic decline, “cultural erosion, and internal fragmentation, Israel increasingly serves as both a strategic asset and a spiritual anchor.
“By drawing from its Jewish civilizational heritage, Israel can renew its national mission transform power into legitimacy and influence and emerge by 2048 not merely as a resilient nation-state, but as a central civilizational and geopolitical pillar in a rapidly re-ordering world”.
There are signs that this vision for Israel, and its place in the world according to the Trump administration, risks being undermined by Israel’s own military policies. ”
“While Trump is desperately clinging to a ceasefire he hopes will hold, it is being jeopardized by continues Israeli attacks in Lebanon, where Iran backs Hezbollah.
JD Vance, the US Vice President told the New York Times last week.: “You’ve seen people in their system, [extreme right wing ministers] Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who’ve attacked the deal.
“And I guess my response to them would be: ‘What is your exact proposal? You’re a country of nine million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have’.”
But that is largely what “Israel 2048” is arguing for.
“Israel will operate on the outside of the wall, having adopted a strategy of ‘prevention’ which had not previously been part of the national security doctrine.
This entails Israel adopting a multi-pronged strategy including military kinetic operations,” the paper, which was published in February, says.
The US-Israel attacks on Iran started on February 28th. Now America wants them to stop. Iran’s regime is intact. None of America’s war aims have been achieved.
Some of Netanyahu’s have been. Iran’s military is weaker, its regime has been rattled, its proxies are on the “are on the back foot and their home regions blasted to dust.
Israel now occupies a large chunk of south Lebanon, a “security zone” in Syria close to Damascus, and 58 per cent of Gaza.
Now all he needs to do is warm up those American evangelicals to shout down Vance, a Catholic.
“The US’s spiritual roots and religious revival influence its cultural and strategic identification with Israel. This is particularly true among evangelical Christians, who make up a large percentage of the US electorate.
“In the US, Evangelicals and Christian nationalists within the Republican party will maintain an affinity with Israel,” says Israel 2014.
That’s why there will be criticism but no clean break.”

Excerpt From
“The Trump administration is angry with Netanyahu - but it won’t break with Israel’s far right”
Sam Kiley
The Independent
https://apple.news/ATReRjuLLR_y6f6Sa4nBchQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

The Trump administration is angry with Netanyahu - but it won’t break with Israel’s far right — The Independent

Supporters of Israel’s far right have long and deep roots in the US administration revealed in two documents, world affairs editor Sam Kiley explains

https://apple.news/ATReRjuLLR_y6f6Sa4nBchQ

OP posts:
RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 15:48

JadeHare · 21/06/2026 13:28

All a bit moot at the moment seeing as though they can’t seem to get to point 1.

I think this is a good point to post article 1 of the MOU.

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. Final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

This is what they are supposed to be sorting out. Note this bit :

and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

Has Trump forgotten he wrote that, and signed it ?

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 16:06

"You close it and you won’t have a country, You won’t even make it back to your fking country.”

Art of the deal. Trump just now on a call to Fox news. And there is more:

"Trump reiterated that he believes the US could become the “guardian angel” of the strait and take 20% of the oil that passes through."

From the CNN feed. Full text here:

"President Donald Trump said today the US might “take over” the Strait of Hormuz if it can’t reach a deal with Iran and threatened the Iranian delegation negotiating in Switzerland.
“We may take over the Strait, if we have to,” Trump said during a 20-minute phone call with Fox News. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.”
On Saturday, Iranian state media reported that Iran’s military command said it will close the strait due to Israel’s alleged violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon, and the US “failing to implement” the first clause of the tentative agreement to end the war.
During the call with Fox News, Trump appeared to threaten a resumption of US bombing in Iran and its negotiators meeting with Vice President JD Vance in Switzerland.
You close it and you won’t have a country,” Trump said he told Iranian officials about the critical waterway. “You won’t even make it back to your fking country.
Trump reiterated that he believes the US could become the “guardian angel” of the strait and take 20% of the oil that passes through.
CNN has reached out to the White House for more details on what taking over the strait would entail."

Hmm. You won’t even make it back to your fking country.

I am pretty sure that statement breaks a few diplomatic rules.

Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) on X

"You close it and you won't have a country." President Trump said he told Iranian officials about the Strait of Hormuz. "You won't even make it back to your fu*king country." "We may take over the Strait, if we have to," Trump said. "If they don't mak...

https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/2068685921956798640?s=20

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 16:38

Lindsey Graham on Face the Nation: "I spent 4.5 hours with President Trump on Friday. Here's what I think will happen next. If this deal fails, President Trump is gonna take the Strait of Hormuz over by force.

“We'll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation ... if Iran contests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States we'll obliterate them."

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 16:55

TopPocketFind · 21/06/2026 16:38

Lindsey Graham on Face the Nation: "I spent 4.5 hours with President Trump on Friday. Here's what I think will happen next. If this deal fails, President Trump is gonna take the Strait of Hormuz over by force.

“We'll charge a fee for all those who go through to pay for the operation ... if Iran contests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States we'll obliterate them."

4.5 hours ? That will be a round of golf then.

Meanwhile, his energy sec has been on Fox. From CNN feed a few mins ago.

"US Energy Secretary defends Iran oil waivers amid criticism
By Alex Daugherty, CNN
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright today defended the portion of the 14-point agreement with Iran that allows the country to again export oil and other petroleum products, calling it a “modest benefit” to Iran.
“Yes, the fact that they they can sell it to other countries and get paid more easily, that’s a benefit but that’s not a big benefit,” Wright said during an interview with Fox News."

Not a big benefit. Sure thing.

Islandsofsand · 21/06/2026 17:11

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 10:26

Ok - someone does want to discuss the ceasefire - good.

Where are you getting the idea that Hezbollah are wanting to negotiate a ceasefire? They haven't stopped attacking Israel even after the MoU was signed so that suggests to me that like Israel, they are not currently interested in a ceasefire. Hopefully that will change soon from both Israel and Hezbollah, but they both seem to need more pressure from the US/Iran before they will comply.

As @Ihatetomatoes said a few pages back, they both need to stop fighting.

The reason why I think Hezbollah would agree to the MOU backed ceasefire is that it stops the fighting and Israel withdraws from the land they have occupied in the Lebanon- but Israel don’t want to do this.

Secondly, Iran didn’t need to involve Hezbollah in the ceasefire deal if the latter didn’t want this. After all - this is about negotiating opening of the SOH and bombing of Iran primarily.

Thirdly - as we all know, Iran fund Hezbollah.

I am not use why you are saying someone does want to discuss the ceasefire? There have been numerous posts about this, but I am inclined to think you just didn’t think they were critical enough of Hezbollah. Which is fair enough- but the feeling is that the ball is really in Israel’s court.

Islandsofsand · 21/06/2026 17:12

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 15:28

No, this is what telling Iran to stop Hezbollah from attacking Israel looks like.

Yeah they should continue to let Israel bomb them and take it like a good neighbour!

Islandsofsand · 21/06/2026 17:16

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 10:30

I haven't seen anyone say they support Hezbollah. But I also haven't seen most on this board ever say they condemn them, apart from on the pro Israel side.

It's not simplistic thinking to think that some people on this board have rather extreme views. If we were all moderate there would not be so many arguments and insults because it would be easy to find common ground and agree that there is blame on all sides re the war in Iran/fighting in Lebanon.

Edited

Actually - I don’t think many of us disagree. Most of us are saying that the deal is bad for US and in the real world - this is being echoed everywhere.

Most of us in this thread feel the war has not achieved much- again which I hear being said by many news outlets.

None of us support Hezbollah. All of us agree that Israeli action has been disproportionate (even Trump agrees)

I don’t see any of the above as extreme beliefs. What extreme beliefs are you referring to @Twiglets1 ?

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 17:18

Islandsofsand · 21/06/2026 17:12

Yeah they should continue to let Israel bomb them and take it like a good neighbour!

Yes perhaps they should - it's what people seem to expect Israel to do after all so maybe it's reasonable.

RedTagAlan · 21/06/2026 17:20

Peace talks are going well then. CNN latest:

"The Iranian delegation currently attending talks in Switzerland has lodged a protest after US President Donald Trump threatened its negotiators a short while ago, Iranian state media has reported.

“Iranian delegation has lodged a protest with the US side and is now weighing options for an appropriate response to Donald Trump’s recent verbal threats,” Press TV, a state-run media channel in Iran, posted to X.

Some context: In a phone call with Fox News today, Trump said that the US might “take over” the Strait of Hormuz if it can’t reach a deal with Iran and threatened the Iranian delegation that has gathered in Switzerland.
You close it (the Strait of Hormuz) and you won’t have a country,” Trump said he told Iranian officials. “You won’t even make it back to your fking country.”

CNN has reached out to the White House for more details on what taking over the strait would entail."

"You won’t even make it back to your fking country.”

That is what Trump said.

Can someone please invoke the 25th amendment.

Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) on X

Iranian delegation has lodged a protest with the US side and is now weighing options for an appropriate response to Donald Trump’s recent verbal threats. Follow https://t.co/B3zXG73Jym

https://x.com/PressTV/status/2068719697034362965

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 17:25

@Islandsofsand well if Iran want a ceasefire and they fund Hezbollah so Hezbollah want a ceasefire - why do Hezbollah keep attacking Israel?

They could make an announcement that they want to be peaceful going forward. Trump would love that as it would look great on him.

Whoops I forgot for a minute they are a terrorist organisation who won't stop attacking Israel until they are told to stop by Iran.

Islandsofsand · 21/06/2026 17:40

Twiglets1 · 21/06/2026 17:25

@Islandsofsand well if Iran want a ceasefire and they fund Hezbollah so Hezbollah want a ceasefire - why do Hezbollah keep attacking Israel?

They could make an announcement that they want to be peaceful going forward. Trump would love that as it would look great on him.

Whoops I forgot for a minute they are a terrorist organisation who won't stop attacking Israel until they are told to stop by Iran.

Do you have any evidence Hezbollah are attacking the IDF because Iran is telling them to versus because the IDF are bombing and occupying Lebanon? The latter seems more likely to me and also what’s reported in the news?

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