US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

[JadeHare]

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

Even CNN make it clear why the deal likely to be signed over the next few days is a Memorandum of Understanding rather than the final peace deal. The language has been changed to accurately reflect the reality that what is being signed is agreement by the US and Iran to work towards finalising all the details, not the final deal itself.

A signed memorandum of understanding would trigger 60 more days of “technical” negotiations on implementation and remaining issues, according to a US official.

edition.cnn.com/2026/06/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel

It's maybe worth noting that some US oil reserves are starting to run low. Ok at the moment, but a few more weeks and things get to danger levels for supply to refineries.

I am sure this has nothing to do with anything though.

The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point | CNN Business

From your article @RedTagAlan

It certainly doesn’t feel like the US oil market is in any real trouble.
Despite the largest crude supply shock the world has ever seen, US oil and gas prices still haven’t hit record highs during the three-plus months of war with Iran. And they’ve been sliding – sometimes sharply – in recent weeks.

Still, it's probably fair to say that it's a good thing for the US and for Iran and for the rest of the world that the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be open to traffic again soon, according to both US and Iran spokesmen.

Why does that not surprise me

Sky News: Iran agrees not to produce or acquire nuclear weapon under draft deal, Iranian official tells Reuters

Iran has agreed not to produce or acquire a nuclear weapon under a draft memorandum of understanding between Iran's leaders and the US, according to a senior Iranian official speaking to the Reuters news agency.

Here's a summary from the news agency of what the source told them is in the draft agreement:

Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, while the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports

The US agrees not to impose any new sanctions on Iran until a final deal is reached

The US will waive oil sanctions on Iran for a specified period, allowing Tehran to sell oil and receive revenue

The US agrees to release $25bn of Iran's frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines

Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons

Tehran agrees to maintain the nuclear status quo until a final deal is reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities

The US agrees Tehran will dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile inside Iran, with a mechanism for doing so to be discussed within 60 days

Obviously, this is one Iranian source and only Iran's side - we're yet to hear from the US about these claims.

news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-us-reveals-details-of-deal-terms-as-iranian-attack-drones-shot-down-near-strait-of-hormuz-13509565

They are recycling Obama's deal?

The Times of Israel reported that Qatari negotiators flew to Tehran this morning as part of an effort to finalize the agreement.

They note that while Trump thinks it will be signed today, the Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei does not. Although he says, “The possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out".

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said earlier on Saturday that a final text of the deal had been reached and that an electronic signing was expected on Sunday, followed by technical-level talks next week.

“You might call it ‘the Zoom accords,'” quipped Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who also works for Channel 12, in a report for the Israeli TV channel on Saturday evening.

The White House wanted a public ceremony in Geneva, and Pakistan wanted it in Islamabad, but the Iranians reportedly did not want either, Channel 12 reported.

It would be good to see some positivity about an end to the Iran war, even on this board.

Iranian hardliners are against it of course:

Iranian hardliners took to the streets in Tehran and Mashhad on Saturday night to protest the emerging agreement with the United States, directing their anger at Iran’s negotiating team and senior officials, according to the Qatari-owned Arabic newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.

Demonstrators in Tehran gathered in a central square and chanted slogans against Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

“Araghchi, be ashamed and leave the country,” protesters shouted, according to the report. Others chanted: “Ghalibaf, Araghchi - what about the blood of our leader?”

A separate demonstration was held in the eastern Iranian city of Mashhad outside a Foreign Ministry office, where participants also raised slogans against Araghchi. Social media accounts reported localized friction in some areas between supporters and opponents of the proposed deal.

According to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, most activists and lawmakers who have publicly opposed the emerging agreement belong to Iran’s conservative camp, particularly circles close to Saeed Jalili, the former secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-899329

.On Trumps issue of bettering
Obama from the Telegraph

’ the proposed deal includes an Iranian pledge not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons - something Trump has said Tehran had agreed to weeks ago.
There's just one problem with that.
The Islamic Republic has always disavowed any interest in nuclear weapons, citing a 2010 religious opinion, or fatwa, issued by the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei which stated that the use of such weapons is haram, or forbidden under Islam

And in 2015, Iran entered into a multilateral agreement to dismantle much of its nascent nuclear
weapons program.
Called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it wasn't just between the U.S. and Iran.
It was hammered out over painstaking talks between Iran, the United States, Germany, and the other four permanent UN Security Council members: The UK, China Russia and France
Iran accepted limits on its ability to enrich uranium and permitted regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency in exchange for sanctions relief.

And despite what Trump says, there was no "cash" involved - he's confusing the sanctions relief with a separate payment the U.S. made to settle a decades-old dispute over weapons purchased by the pre-1979 government that were never delivered to Iran.

Trump says he can get a better deal, but it's hard to see how what the plans leaked out by U.S. and Iranian sources are better than the JCPOA. (even now )

For one, the deal Trump keeps touting isn't a real deal — it's a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and a promise for more talks.'

Meanwhile Iran will now be charging ships that pass through the SOH as part of this deal and
Obama's deal didn't come off the back of the US and Israel bombing and killing thousands of people!

So Iran has gained quite a bit without giving up much? Will they be allowed to continue nuclear enrichment as long as not working towards a bomb, which I thought they had agreed before?

Agree
Only now thousands have been killed, civilian infrastructure bombed
and
Iran will be charging for transit through the SOH
So Nothing gained and so much lost
But Trump will spin it as better than Obama because we all know how he’s racist

I think technically that is better than the JCPOA. Because that never included opening the SoH.

Of course, the SoH was not closed. So there is that.

You want to see some positivity?

What has been achieved since Trump tore up the JCOAP? Or since he started the war that closed the Strait of Hormuz?

This peace deal is undoing the damage caused by Trump.

The war achieved nothing and Trump is desperate for a way out.

Ofcourse it will be good to see an agreement, it has caused more than enough damage worldwide.

@DrPrunesqualer you say "The Islamic Republic has always disavowed any interest in nuclear weapons" to which I say, Yes but no one trusts them not to do so.

Obama didn't trust them not to develop nuclear weapons, Trump doesn't trust them, the EU don't trust them and the UK government don't trust them. They all say: Iran must never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

We're not stupid. If they don't have any interest in nuclear weapons why were they fighting so hard for the right to develop nuclear capability. They didn't need to enrich uranium levels to 60% for any other reason - that was a threat.

As the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute noted in 2021:

Once it has been enriched beyond 20 per cent, uranium enters a different nuclear materials safeguards accounting category: highly enriched uranium (HEU). Although under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) it is legal for any country to produce HEU, the JCPOA limits Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent.

Iran’s decision has also inevitably drawn international attention because it brings the country so close to producing 90 per cent-enriched uranium, which is generally considered weapons-grade.

Uranium enriched to 60 per cent cannot be used to make a useful nuclear explosive device, and Iran has no other realistic use for this material.

Nevertheless, 60 per cent was not an arbitrary choice. Cascades of centrifuges are designed to enrich uranium in steps; Iran’s centrifuges are likely set up to enrich up to 20 per cent, from 20 to 60 per cent, and from 60 to 90 per cent.

Assuming the 60 per cent-enriched uranium is stored in the form of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas—and there would be no point in Iran converting it to any other chemical form—the enrichment step from 60 per cent-enriched to weapons-grade uranium is very short.

www.sipri.org/commentary/essay/2021/why-iran-producing-60-cent-enriched-uranium

Didn’t the further enrichment happen when Trump ripped up the 2015 agreement and the nuclear scientists monitoring the prior agreement could no longer enter Iran?

😂
Trump will sell that as a plus though

I would say the need / desire for Iran to get a nuclear bomb and work towards this clandestinely can only have increased with this war. After all, if they had a bomb, then would the U.S. and Israel have bombed them?

Exactly
Iran signed the deal and agreed to monitoring

Countries that have always refused to sign and do not allow monitoring are far more of a worry and can’t be trusted

Weaknesses and Criticisms of the JCPOA

One of the main arguments used against the JCPOA was that it allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and move closer to nuclear capability while remaining technically in compliance. The JCPOA also contained so-called “sunset provisions” on various aspects of the deal such as lifting limits on centrifuges after 10 years or reduced enrichment beyond 3.67% only lasting for 15 years. This led to concerns that the deal would only temporarily delay Iran’s nuclear program while preventing parties from finding a more permanent solution

https://armscontrolcenter.org/the-iran-deal-then-and-now/

Iran signed the deal but they didn't stick to the deal after the US withdrew.

There were other signatories not just the US - the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany.

I agree that Trump shouldn't have withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.

But I also think that Iran shouldn't have used that as an excuse to accelerate its uranium enrichment to the current level of 60%.

Why would one side stick to a torn up agreement?

This is not going to improve the change of a deal (MoU) getting signed

Israel has bombed Dahiyah in Beirut.

It doesn't matter what they want. It's pretty obvious to anyone with a brain that they already desire to have a nuclear bomb and it's also obvious which countries they would want to drop a nuclear bomb on.

That is why so many world leaders agree that they can't be allowed to develop one.

And that was why there was an agreement in place.

Didn’t the U.S. reintroduce sanctions in oil, military and banking when they ripped up the agreement? Why would Iran agree the 2015 deal when US were making them suffer economically.

Of course it’s bleeding obvious and why Obama’s 2015, if I can call it that, was necessary and why unfortunately the risks have only increased by the U.S. and Israeli actions.